Here’s Why Fly Down Wins

There is no doubt that the Mid-Summer Derby is one of my favorite races of the season. Year and year out, it acts as a great bridge between the Triple Crown and the Breeders’ Cup. This year’s edition of the Travers is no different. What it lacks in superstars, it makes up for with competitiveness. There is literally not one horse, among the eleven, that would be a major surprise to me if they crossed the wire first. Having said that, I have a couple of reasons why I believe Fly Down may be the one to prove victorious. Reason number one is stamina. In watching years of Travers, it occurs to me that this is a race in which the need for stamina is somewhat underrated. Saratoga’s dirt course combined with the classic distance seem to weed out the horses that do not appreciate the extra furlong. This year there is a clear division, in my mind at least, between horses who will get the distance, and those who will deploy the parachute at some point in the stretch. You can make a case that the only four likely to not need an oxygen tank at the eighth pole are the four horses who ran (and did well) in the triple crown races, namely Super Saver, Ice Box, First Dude, and Fly Down. The other seven have never been the distance for a variety of reasons, but the bottom line is the Travers will prove a tough race to attempt the distance for the first time. I would be more likely to forgive this drawback if any of the other seven had breeding that screamed distance … none do. Reason number two is pace. A full field of eleven gunning for a million dollar win should ensure solid early fractions. Also, in looking over the field’s past performances, there are several horses in here who need to be on or near the lead. The combination of those two things have bells and whistles going off in my handicapping brain. A fast and contested pace, with many of the field’s contestants not wanting the distance anyway, should lead to some serious staggering down the lane. It also should set the race up nicely for the closers. For that reason, I prefer Nick Zito’s pair of Fly Down and Ice Box over my other two contenders based on stamina, Super Saver and First Dude, who both want to be part of the early pace. Of Fly Down and Ice Box, I believe the former is just a better horse, and will beat his barn mate. A repeat of his Dwyer or Belmont performance should be plenty good enough to see Fly Down victorious in tomorrow’s Travers, and don’t be too surprised if you see New York Nick Zito all smiles after the race with a 1-2 finish. It ought to be a fun, and counting the hours down in anticipation of the big race, has me recalling some of my favorite Travers. There may be none more memorable than my very first. The year was 1978 … for my memories on that epic showdown, please visit today’s piece on ZATT History.

Winning at My First Preakness

Everyone remembers their first time. Whether it is a first kiss or a first visit to Disneyworld, there is something magical about that first time. My friends, I am thrilled to announce that I will be experiencing an important first this week in Maryland. I know what you are thinking, and no, that’s not it! Please remove your mind from the gutter. I am talking about a horse racing related first time. I am somewhat embarrassed to announce (let me whisper this, so no one else overhears) that I have never been to the Preakness. I have never even been to Pimlico for that matter.  I know it’s hard to believe. I have been going to the races since birth and I’ve been to around three dozen different thoroughbred racetracks. I’ve been to countless Kentucky Derbies and Belmont Stakes, but never once to the Preakness. Why? I have no good answer, but I will finally rectify the sad state of affairs in a matter of days. It’s about time, and I consider completing the Triple Crown as a rite of passage of sorts. And every subsequent visit, no matter how many years later, will be compared with this trip, my first Preakness. I am chomping at the bit to get there, and once I get there I plan to win. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

No Derby, Drosselmeyer to Dwyer

When you possess the kind of hand that WinStar Farm held in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby, there is sure to be some success and some failure. One of their colts, Endorsement, was injured in a recent workout, while another talented colt running for WinStar, Rule, did not train his best and was taken out of Kentucky Derby consideration. Yet another of their runners, American Lion made it to the race, but was never a factor and finished 11th. It was not that long ago that WinStar was hopeful that another of their young stars, Drosselmeyer would enter the Kentucky Derby with a real chance to win. It did not happen. Drosselmeyer was likely the best horse in the Louisiana Derby, but lacked racing room at a key juncture of the race. The bad luck resulted in a 3rd place finish, and left the son of Distorted Humor on the outside looking in on the graded earning’s list. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

The Middle Jewel Takes Shape

Eight days from race day, and the Preakness field still has questions, but it is much closer to taking shape than it was a couple of days ago. At this time, here are the 14 sophomores I see as most likely to line up in the Preakness starting gate, along with my rating of each: 1 Lookin At Lucky 3-1 Isn’t the 2009 two-year-old champion is due for a fair chance. A grinder who has run well in every start, had no chance in the Derby after the first quarter mile. Needs only that elusive good trip to wear down the Derby winner down the lane, and prove he is still a champion. 2 Super Saver 5-2 The Derby winner has the tactical advantage of being near or on the lead. He has been well handled this year and appears to be in the midst of peaking at the perfect time. He will be the one to pass if you want to win the Preakness, and will have every chance to head to New York as a Triple Crown contender. 3 Caracortado 15-1 California bred gelding was up against slow paces and a rough trip in his last two. The talented colt has been freshened and is doing well for his assault on Baltimore. May get a perfect middle of the pack trip to strike as they straighten out, and if he appreciates a return to the dirt, could be the one to pull the upset. 4 Noble’s Promise 10-1 Solid colt returned from bad luck in the Arkansas Derby to run big at Churchill. He looked strong and full of run on the turn, but then hit the distance wall in the stretch. The 1/16 mile shorter distance of the Preakness should help, but the route is still a question. ***Latest News - Noble's Promise will skip the Preakness and run in England instead, via Ray Paulick.*** 5 Hurricane Ike 12-1 The Derby Trial was a big performance in his second dirt try. If the change to dirt is a reason for the apparent rapid improvement, he could prove a dangerous new shooter. The Preakness will be another huge step up for the Sadler trainee, but his last makes him quite interesting. 6 Paddy O’Prado 8-1 One of the talked about horses, he ran a big race in Louisville. Not that long ago he was a maiden, but now he may be have progressed enough to be a major threat against anyone. I wonder if he moved up in the slop, but he must be respected off his recent form. 7 Dublin 15-1 D. Wayne’s main hope was a threatening presence at the quarter pole, but once again faded a bit when the real running began. He must be considered a threat on his best, but until he proves to me that he can get a distance, I can not make him one of my top selections. 8 Schoolyard Dreams 20-1 Derek Ryan trained colt defeated the Derby winner just a few races ago, but then disappointed in the Wood Memorial. He has been freshened since then and if he can improve just a little bit, may prove to be horse with a chance in the stretch. 9 Jackson Bend 20-1 Steps in as the only LaPenta/ Zito colt to make the trip to Baltimore. Hard trying little guy deserves another chance after the Derby craziness. I still see the distance as the main drawback to his win chances once again. 10 Aikenite 25-1 Pletcher’s other entrant showed improvement in the Derby Trial, but I believe that was mainly due to the shorter distance. 1 3/16 should prove tough for the son of Yes It’s True, who probably will have a future rallying in one-turn races. 11 A Little Warm 25-1 New shooter went from a stakes win sprinting to a solid effort in the Louisiana Derby. Not sure if he can make another big jump up against these at the Preakness distance, but he should be involved in the early stages. 12 First Dude 30-1 Lightly raced and distance bred, this colt may still have a future, but it is hard to see it happen in the Preakness. This Dale Romans' second string colt looks destined to run much like you would expect a second stringer to run. 13 Pleasant Prince 30-1 The horse who ran close to Ice Box several times seems to be moving in the wrong direction. His connections tried hard to qualify him for the Derby, and it did not work. Now I am afraid they are left with a non-fresh horse with little chance in here. 14 Northern Giant 40-1 Lukas is famous for taking a flyer in Triple Crown races, and that is all that this horse appears to be. I can’t recommend off his Arkansas Derby performance, in which his lack of class seems to have been on display.

What if Eclipse Awards Went Out Today?

Admittedly handing out awards barely more than 1/3 of the way through the year is a tad bit silly, but hey, I can be silly once in a while...Let's have some fun! Horse of the Year - Quality Road Older Male - Quality Road Older Female - Zenyatta 3-year-old Male - Super Saver 3-year-old Female - Blind Luck Turf Male - General Quarters Turf Female - Tuscan Evening Sprint Male - Kinsale King Sprint Female - Mona de Momma 2-year-old Male - Lou Brissie 2-year-old Female - Twelve Pack Shelly Let the debate begin!

On to Pimlico

The celebrations of Kentucky Derby glory are winding down. Big winnings from Derby Day are already earmarked for this, that, and the other thing. Time to slow down, and ease up on the racing discussion. Uh…no! The Preakness has always been one of my favorite races of the year. Often the most formful race of the Triple Crown, the Preakness does not feature the twenty horse pinball effect of the Derby. It is at a distance which better matches the horses running, as opposed to the marathon of the Belmont Stakes. It also offers something no other race in the world can boast…a brand new Kentucky Derby champion on his quest to become racing’s twelfth ever Triple Crown winner. For these reasons and many others, the Preakness is truly one of the great American races, and I will diving in head first over the next twelve days to break down the Preakness, ZATT style. Here is the most current list of Preakness possibles, with my current morning line odds, and quick comment: Aikenite 25-1 Pletcher plan B runner showed improvement in the Derby Trial, but I think that is because of the shorter distance. 1 3/16 will prove tough for the son of Yes It’s True. A Little Warm 25-1 He went from a stakes win sprinting to a solid effort in the Louisiana Derby. Not sure if he can make another big jump up against these, but should be a pace factor. Bushwhacked 20-1 Lightly raced colt is getting better at the right time. I have a lot of respect for his trainer, Jonathan Sheppard, but this is still a lot to ask of a horse who won a maiden sprint in April. Caracortado 15-1 Scarface returns! Likeable California bred has been freshened since the Santa Anita Derby, should get a good stalking trip, and if he takes to dirt…watch out. Dublin 15-1 Actually ran a good race in Louisville, but once again came up a little short in the late stages. A nice horse to be sure, but a flat mile may be the distance he is best suited. Hurricane Ike 15-1 Where did the Derby Trial come from? It was a big performance in his second dirt try. The Preakness will be another huge step up for the Sadler trainee, but his last makes him at least a little interesting. Ice Box 9-2 The Florida Derby win was clearly no fluke, and all in all you could make a solid argument that he ran best at Churchill. Fast pace made his rally all the more potent and may need the same pace to win at Pimlico. Jackson Bend 15-1 May be the more likely of the Lapenta/ Zito colts to make the race. Hard trying little guy deserves another chance after the Derby craziness. Lookin At Lucky 7-2 The trip in the Derby was bad, come to think of it every trip he has had since the Breeders’ Cup have been bad. Sooner or later he will get a good trip. He is the Derby winner’s main threat. Paddy O Prado 10-1 As many predicted, he ran big in Louisville. Not that long ago he was a maiden, but now he may be have progressed enough to win a big one. Can he do it on a fast track? Pleasant Prince 25-1 Connections tried hard to qualify him for the Derby, it did not work. Now I am afraid they are left with a non-fresh horse moving in the wrong direction. Schoolyard Dreams 20-1 He defeated Super Saver just a few races ago, but then disappointed in the Wood Memorial. I still think he may have the potential to be a live longshot in Baltimore. Super Saver 5-2 Derby winner is progressing with each start. His new found ability to rate makes him doubly tough to handle. The horse to beat to get two thirds of the way to immortality. Turf Melody 50-1 Motion runner has not been able to scare the top horses in mediocre preps so far. I can’t recommend him to do any better in the Middle Jewel.

Super Man, Super Relief and Super Saver!

Today is not the day. I refuse to question the brilliance of the Kentucky Derby champion, Super Saver. I will not add fuel to the doubters who believe he can not win the Triple Crown. Nor will I question whether or not he would have won if Ice Box or Lookin at Lucky had smoother trips. Today is not the day to talk about what would have happened if Eskendereya had been able to run. Today is all about Super Saver. Congratulate him and his handlers for winning the greatest of all American horse races. 43-year-old jockey Calvin Borel continues to amaze. He is a true American hero. Raised from modest beginnings in Louisiana, he now sits squarely atop the world of Thoroughbred jockeys. If it is true what they say, and the Kentucky Derby is the race that everyone wants to win, than Calvin Borel must be the envy of all of America’s jockeys. In the last four years, he has won three Derbies, with a third place finish in the other year. A remarkable run, that will be hard to match again in our lifetimes. Borel has won with a favorite, and he has won with a rank outsider. Every Derby mount he rides has a better chance to win, simply because he is on their back. The most recognizable racetrack in the United States, Churchill Downs, is now Calvin’s track. Our newest Kentucky Derby winning trainer, Todd Pletcher, has been the most successful trainer in the 21st century. He has broken his own earnings records, as he’s piled up Eclipse Awards. At 42 years of age, he has accomplished more in the sport than most trainers can even dream of, but still there was something missing. A big something. Without a Kentucky Derby win, Pletcher’s career was incomplete. Like the Hall of Fame quarterback who never won the Super Bowl, Pletcher trained with a 100 pound monkey on his back…until yesterday. Happiness? Joy? Perhaps relief is the best description. Todd Pletcher will never again have to answer questions about never having won the big win. He is now poised to have the greatest year in his stellar career. Sweet relief. As for the Kentucky Derby winner himself, Super Saver is a beautiful colt who has run well in every single one of his races. He has the classic breeding of a champion and has always been considered a horse with the potential to do something really big. In his narrow defeats of 2010, in the Tampa Bay and Arkansas Derbies, he showed courage and gameness despite not being fully cranked up. Super Saver was prepared to peak on the first Saturday in May, and now he is the winner of the Kentucky Derby. He is now the only horse who can win the elusive Triple Crown. Can he win it? Is he the best three-year-old in the nation? We will not start worrying about that until we are within twelve days of the Preakness…on Monday morning!

Mission Impazible No Longer for Todd?

As I slowly drifted into a Derby Eve slumber, one name kept rolling through my mind. Surprisingly it was not my top pick, Awesome Act. Nor was it the horse to beat, Lookin at Lucky, or the Girl Power entrant, Devil May Care. It wasn’t even Calvin Borel’s strong entry, Super Saver. Rather my brain was stuck on one name…Mission Impazible. Interesting. What does it all mean? As only a minor believer in the value of hunches or premonitions, I greet this bedtime revelation with skeptical optimism. The good news is that Mission Impazible was already one of my Fab Five, and even better he is clearly the longest shot of the bunch. I have him in several live tickets in Derby Future Exactas, and Oaks-Derby Doubles, so a Mission Impazible victory would be a nice collect. As you may have guessed, the other four members of my Fab Five are the same four mentioned at the beginning of this piece, and I believe the horse that becomes the 136th champion of the Kentucky Derby will be one the five. With the expected fast pace materializing, I see this as a race that will be very hard for any speed horse to win. Benefiting from the tiring leaders should be the English invader Awesome Act. The son of Awesome Again is well suited to appreciate the grueling late stages of the Kentucky Derby, and his explosive turn of foot should give him every chance as the horse turn for home. Broodmare sire Mr. Prospector, also gives Awesome Act a great chance to thrive on an off track. I expect him to redeem himself for a poor Wood Memorial, where everything went wrong, and premonition or not, he is still my top pick. Lookin at Lucky is hard to ignore. He is bred for the trip, is the juvenile champion, and he is consistent as they come. If not for bad racing luck, Lucky could have an even better record than the excellent 8-6-1-1 that he has compiled. Drawing the 1 post did him no favors, and an off track could compromise his chances, but it should come as no surprise to anyone to see the Bob Baffert trained champion end up in the winner’s circle.  Mission Impazible is a bit of a wildcard, but one with much to like. The son of the mercurial sire Unbridled’s Song has a racing pattern that I like to see in the Derby. He displayed a ton of talent early in his juvenile season and then was put on the shelf with minor physical problems. In his three races this year, he has shown steady improvement culminating with a win in the Louisiana Derby. He is working well, and has solid wet track experience. All in all he is a very attractive longshot. Devil May Care is another who is a bit of unknown. You never know for sure if the filly will be good enough to handle the boys, but clearly recent history is in her corner. Like Mission Impazible, she should get a favorable position in the middle of the pack. She has displayed clear signs of being a good one with wins in the Frizette and Bonnie Miss, and possibly as much as anyone in the field, may have the ability to still improve a great deal. She won her last race nicely, despite running greenly, and Pletcher has always said that she will relish a distance. Rounding out my Fab Five is Super Saver. The only speed horse I have selected, Super Saver has the advantage of excellent experience over both a sloppy track and over the Churchill Downs strip. He has two solid preps under his belt and should be ready to fire his best shot. The pace scenario does worry me a little, but there is no one I would rather have in the irons on Derby Day than Calvin Borel. Super Saver looks the part and is bred to be a Derby winner. At this time it looks like he may be vying for favoritism, but he has too many positives to overlook even if he is a little overbet. Happy Derby Day everyone. Win, lose, or draw, I hope you all enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports all day long.

Oaks Day Doings

First thing first, Blind Luck may not be the most talented filly in the world, but she is a champion through and through. I was thoroughly impressed with her from-dead-last rally, and here’s why: The pace was quite moderate, it would have been so much easier for Blind Luck to uncork her patented rally with a brisk pace. She has rallied before, but circling a full field of 14 was a whole new ball game. She passed this new test with flying colors. Finally, the filly she nipped at the wire, Evening Jewel, is obviously very good, underrated, and most importantly, she was absolutely full of run in the stretch. Only a gritty champion like Blind Luck could have beat her today. Blind Luck is a champion, and it will take a Devil May Care upset win in the Derby to steal one bit of her sophomore filly thunder. Now for the less happy news. Rachel Alexandra lost. Again. Rachel Alexandra ran the greatest race I have ever seen a filly run in last year’s Haskell runaway. Since then, things have been anything but easy. Three races and three doggedly tough photo finishes. The first she won, in the Woodward, and the last two she has been defeated. The two losses this year were good races by normal horse’s standards, but Rachel Alexandra is no normal horse. Clearly Rachel is not, to this point at least, the same Rachel we grew to love in 2009. It is not uncommon for fillies to regress after time away from the races. Filly winners of the Kentucky Derby illustrate this phenomenon. Genuine Risk only ran in allowance company as an older filly, winning two of three, and Winning Colors, finished out of the money in five out of her seven starts at four years of age. It is still too early to tell what this means for Rachel’s future, but I will never see her as anything but the champion that she is. Do not give up on her yet. And now for another shameless plug…ZATT the Magazine has launched!!! It’s official, my dream is a reality. Please join me at http://www.zattmag.com/. Derby tease (more to come tomorrow.) The Kentucky Derby will be won by one of these five: Awesome Act, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Super Saver, or Devil May Care.

Derby Day in the Natural State

D. Wayne Lukas once ruled over the Derby-Preakness-Belmont landscape with a confident and steady hand that saw him win an incredible 13 times. Such a consistent threat in the Triple Crown races was Lukas, that he once won six consecutive crown races with Tabasco Cat, Thunder Gulch, Timber Country, and Grindstone in 1994-96. His last win came in 2000 with the longshot Belmont winner Commendable. In the ten years that have passed since the Hall of Fame trainer last found himself in a Spring classic winner’s circle, legitimate opportunities have been notably slim. Lukas hopes to end that streak with either of two colts that he has starting in today’s Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. In Dublin and Northern Giant, Lukas has a two-prong attack that could well send him onto Louisville on a winning note, and possibly a return to Triple Crown glory. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

Todd Pletcher - The Definition of Due

Todd Pletcher has clearly been the man so far this year on the Kentucky Derby trail. Pletcher’s horses have won this year’s Wood Memorial, Louisiana Derby, Fountain of Youth, Sam F. Davis Stakes and Risen Star Stakes. So dominant is Pletcher, that it is almost hard to imagine a big Derby prep without at least one of his runners in the mix. In this week’s prestigious Blue Grass, he will have two of the favorites in Aikenite and Interactif. In the Arkansas Derby, he has another of the top choices in Super Saver. The Pletcher prep wins are likely to continue. This winning streak is nothing new for the 42 year old conditioner. Pletcher has won four Eclipse Awards as the nation's outstanding trainer. He has led the national standings in earnings four times, and in 2007, he set a record when his stable earned more than $28 million. But despite of all of these personal achievements, his career is incomplete. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

Here's What I Saw

As far as the big two, Zenyatta won and Rachel did not. While the Zenyatta juggernaut continues to roll on and on, to the tune of an amazing record of 15 wins in 15 starts, Rachel came back from a long layoff to finish 2nd by ¾ of a length to another John Shirreffs trained runner, Zardana. It was not what everyone expected for last year’s Horse of the Year. Rachel was clearly short after six months off and was not pushed too hard by rider Calvin Borel. I have little doubt that she will get a lot out of the loss, and will be much improved for her next race. Unfortunately, that will not come in the Apple Blossom on April 9. Zenyatta will be there after her typical awesome performance, but the connections of Rachel Alexandra feel she is not quite ready for the meeting. Hopefully the two superstars will get a chance to settle things on the track sometime soon. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

Derby Prep Day the 13th

It looks like I picked a good day to start writing for Youbet.com. If you like the greatest of horses returning after several months on the sidelines, if you like crucial preps with countless major candidates for the first Saturday in May, if you like the thrill of many of the greatest athletes in the world giving it everything they possibly have to cross the finish line first, then friends, today is a day for you. What has Zipse at the Track (you can call me ZATT for short) so excited? Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, the greatest female horses I have ever seen (sorry Ruffian) make their long awaited and agonizingly anticipated returns today in the New Orleans Ladies and the Santa Margarita Handicap respectively. Any day these magnificent horses hit the track it is an instant holiday, and today they both will run. Peaking the interest even more, this will be their only appearance before the big one on April 9. Not taking a backseat to the older females, are three excellent fields of prime Kentucky Derby hopefuls in the Rebel Stakes, San Felipe Stakes, and the Tampa Bay Derby. In these three major preps, no less than 13 of my personal Top 30 horses from the Kentucky Derby master list will be in action today. You may have already guessed that I am expecting Rachel and Zenyatta to win today, so let’s concentrate on the Derby preps. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

Down and Derby c19

19 weeks until the Kentucky Derby, let the countdown begin! Zipse at the Track will fill out the Kentucky Derby starting gate with 20 horses, in three categories, to keep your anticipatory eyes on. The Big 8 will include the eight horses I feel the most likely to win come the first Saturday in May. The Hidden Dragons will include the horses laying in wait and ready to breathe fire in the near future, and the Forget Me Nots category will feature those horses that may not be currently on the forefront of anyone’s mind, but are eligible to move there, with one solid race. I will unveil the categories in the coming weeks, and after that, they will form a Top 20 list all the way to the Derby. This week, the… Big 8 1 Connemara (Giant's Causeway - Satin Sunrise by Mr. Leader) The half brother of 2004 Derby runner-up, Lion Heart, has yet to test the deep water, but he has all the look and tools of a future superstar. Connemara was left hopelessly at the gate in his debut at Turfway Park and still easily recovered to roll over a field that included a Pletcher stablemate who won his next out at Keeneland. Connemara showed determination in his second race, an allowance win at Santa Anita, while coming off the rail to outfinish a solid field. You could tell he was full of run after the wire of that win, and there appears to be a lot more under the tank of this one. I see big things for him as he moves into stakes company in the near future. 2 Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike - Private Feeling by Belong to Me) The soon to be two-year-old champion is hard to knock and even harder to keep out of the number one spot. Physically he looks the part and all he does his win stake after stake. All six of his races have been over synthetic surfaces, so the question of how he will handle dirt is still out there and there is a touch of sprint breeding in his pedigree, but being a son of the excellent sire Smart Strike causes me not to worry too much on either account. Lookin at Lucky is the horse all others will compare themselves on the early road to Louisville. 3 Buddy’s Saint (St. Liam - Tuzia by Blushing John) The ill-fated champion, St. Liam, only sired one crop before his untimely death. How fitting that he has a top-notch horse to make a run at the Derby trail. Buddy’s Saint absolutely whistled in his two stakes wins at Aqueduct, where he will return, in the Spring for the Wood Memorial. In winning the Nashua and Remsen, he dominated with complete authority despite being under wraps. He is a fluid mover and has the look of a horse that will have no trouble getting the Derby distance for conditioner Bruce Levine. 4 Super Saver (Maria’s Mon - Supercharger by A.P. Indy) WinStar’s first horse on the list, Super Saver is a big strong colt with quality distance breeding throughout his lineage. He has improved with each of his four starts and has quickly trended to near the top of everyone’s juvenile list. The ability to harness his early speed may be his only question mark. Super Saver also has one large advantage over any other potential Derby horse on the list, as he clearly ran the best race by any two-year-old this year at Churchill Downs, in his impressive win in the Kentucky Jockey Club. 5 Piscitelli (Victory Gallop - Rayelle by Relaunch) With only one win in five starts, you would not expect to see this horse so highly rated, but to me, this is the most likely horse of all to relish the demanding distance of the Derby. In his last race, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, in which he finished 4th and beaten less than one length, Piscitelli fought back from the rail and was running great at the end, despite being the early pace setter. His breeding tells me he will appreciate the return to dirt, will handle an off track, and only get better as he develops. 6 Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings by Tabasco Cat) The King of the Calder juveniles, Jackson Bend showed courage and the ability to overcome, in winning five straight races at the South Florida oval. He has since been turned over to experienced Kentucky Derby winning trainer, Nick Zito, in preparation for a raid on Louisville. His freshman sire was a sprinter, so distance limitations are the one major concern for the very likeable horse. He has experience on the dirt and has already handled good horses, so if he can get 10 furlongs, look out. 7 American Lion (Tiznow - Storm Tide by Storm Cat) I had a hard time keeping American Lion this far down on the list, with his royal breeding and his regal good looks. Another WinStar runner with a big upside, American Lion transferred his Keeneland form nicely in his first stakes appearance in Southern California. I have no doubt that Tiznow will someday sire a Derby winner and this colt has the potential to be the one, but right now potential is the key word, as he has yet to race farther than a 7 furlong sprint. 8 Winslow Homer (Unbridled’s Song - Summer Raven by Summer Squall) A win in an allowance race at Philadelphia Park gets him a spot in the Big 8? Yes, when you win the race like Winslow Homer did. The double digit score was as easy as it was impressive, and it came on the heels of a smart score in a maiden race at Saratoga. He has all the looks of many of the recent brilliant Unbridled’s Song runners, such as Eight Belles and Old Fashioned. Obviously we all pray that he will prove more durable. Look for the Tony Dutrow trained gray to move with ease into stakes company in his next start.