19 weeks until the Kentucky Derby, let the countdown begin!
Zipse at the Track will fill out the Kentucky Derby starting gate with 20 horses, in three categories, to keep your anticipatory eyes on. The Big 8 will include the eight horses I feel the most likely to win come the first Saturday in May. The Hidden Dragons will include the horses laying in wait and ready to breathe fire in the near future, and the Forget Me Nots category will feature those horses that may not be currently on the forefront of anyone’s mind, but are eligible to move there, with one solid race. I will unveil the categories in the coming weeks, and after that, they will form a Top 20 list all the way to the Derby. This week, the…
Big 8
1 Connemara (Giant's Causeway - Satin Sunrise by Mr. Leader)
The half brother of 2004 Derby runner-up, Lion Heart, has yet to test the deep water, but he has all the look and tools of a future superstar. Connemara was left hopelessly at the gate in his debut at Turfway Park and still easily recovered to roll over a field that included a Pletcher stablemate who won his next out at Keeneland. Connemara showed determination in his second race, an allowance win at Santa Anita, while coming off the rail to outfinish a solid field. You could tell he was full of run after the wire of that win, and there appears to be a lot more under the tank of this one. I see big things for him as he moves into stakes company in the near future.
2 Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike - Private Feeling by Belong to Me)
The soon to be two-year-old champion is hard to knock and even harder to keep out of the number one spot. Physically he looks the part and all he does his win stake after stake. All six of his races have been over synthetic surfaces, so the question of how he will handle dirt is still out there and there is a touch of sprint breeding in his pedigree, but being a son of the excellent sire Smart Strike causes me not to worry too much on either account. Lookin at Lucky is the horse all others will compare themselves on the early road to Louisville.
3 Buddy’s Saint (St. Liam - Tuzia by Blushing John)
The ill-fated champion, St. Liam, only sired one crop before his untimely death. How fitting that he has a top-notch horse to make a run at the Derby trail. Buddy’s Saint absolutely whistled in his two stakes wins at Aqueduct, where he will return, in the Spring for the Wood Memorial. In winning the Nashua and Remsen, he dominated with complete authority despite being under wraps. He is a fluid mover and has the look of a horse that will have no trouble getting the Derby distance for conditioner Bruce Levine.
4 Super Saver (Maria’s Mon - Supercharger by A.P. Indy)
WinStar’s first horse on the list, Super Saver is a big strong colt with quality distance breeding throughout his lineage. He has improved with each of his four starts and has quickly trended to near the top of everyone’s juvenile list. The ability to harness his early speed may be his only question mark. Super Saver also has one large advantage over any other potential Derby horse on the list, as he clearly ran the best race by any two-year-old this year at Churchill Downs, in his impressive win in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
5 Piscitelli (Victory Gallop - Rayelle by Relaunch)
With only one win in five starts, you would not expect to see this horse so highly rated, but to me, this is the most likely horse of all to relish the demanding distance of the Derby. In his last race, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, in which he finished 4th and beaten less than one length, Piscitelli fought back from the rail and was running great at the end, despite being the early pace setter. His breeding tells me he will appreciate the return to dirt, will handle an off track, and only get better as he develops.
6 Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings by Tabasco Cat)
The King of the Calder juveniles, Jackson Bend showed courage and the ability to overcome, in winning five straight races at the South Florida oval. He has since been turned over to experienced Kentucky Derby winning trainer, Nick Zito, in preparation for a raid on Louisville. His freshman sire was a sprinter, so distance limitations are the one major concern for the very likeable horse. He has experience on the dirt and has already handled good horses, so if he can get 10 furlongs, look out.
7 American Lion (Tiznow - Storm Tide by Storm Cat)
I had a hard time keeping American Lion this far down on the list, with his royal breeding and his regal good looks. Another WinStar runner with a big upside, American Lion transferred his Keeneland form nicely in his first stakes appearance in Southern California. I have no doubt that Tiznow will someday sire a Derby winner and this colt has the potential to be the one, but right now potential is the key word, as he has yet to race farther than a 7 furlong sprint.
8 Winslow Homer (Unbridled’s Song - Summer Raven by Summer Squall)
A win in an allowance race at Philadelphia Park gets him a spot in the Big 8? Yes, when you win the race like Winslow Homer did. The double digit score was as easy as it was impressive, and it came on the heels of a smart score in a maiden race at Saratoga. He has all the looks of many of the recent brilliant Unbridled’s Song runners, such as Eight Belles and Old Fashioned. Obviously we all pray that he will prove more durable. Look for the Tony Dutrow trained gray to move with ease into stakes company in his next start. |
