The Middle Jewel Takes Shape

Eight days from race day, and the Preakness field still has questions, but it is much closer to taking shape than it was a couple of days ago. At this time, here are the 14 sophomores I see as most likely to line up in the Preakness starting gate, along with my rating of each: 1 Lookin At Lucky 3-1 Isn’t the 2009 two-year-old champion is due for a fair chance. A grinder who has run well in every start, had no chance in the Derby after the first quarter mile. Needs only that elusive good trip to wear down the Derby winner down the lane, and prove he is still a champion. 2 Super Saver 5-2 The Derby winner has the tactical advantage of being near or on the lead. He has been well handled this year and appears to be in the midst of peaking at the perfect time. He will be the one to pass if you want to win the Preakness, and will have every chance to head to New York as a Triple Crown contender. 3 Caracortado 15-1 California bred gelding was up against slow paces and a rough trip in his last two. The talented colt has been freshened and is doing well for his assault on Baltimore. May get a perfect middle of the pack trip to strike as they straighten out, and if he appreciates a return to the dirt, could be the one to pull the upset. 4 Noble’s Promise 10-1 Solid colt returned from bad luck in the Arkansas Derby to run big at Churchill. He looked strong and full of run on the turn, but then hit the distance wall in the stretch. The 1/16 mile shorter distance of the Preakness should help, but the route is still a question. ***Latest News - Noble's Promise will skip the Preakness and run in England instead, via Ray Paulick.*** 5 Hurricane Ike 12-1 The Derby Trial was a big performance in his second dirt try. If the change to dirt is a reason for the apparent rapid improvement, he could prove a dangerous new shooter. The Preakness will be another huge step up for the Sadler trainee, but his last makes him quite interesting. 6 Paddy O’Prado 8-1 One of the talked about horses, he ran a big race in Louisville. Not that long ago he was a maiden, but now he may be have progressed enough to be a major threat against anyone. I wonder if he moved up in the slop, but he must be respected off his recent form. 7 Dublin 15-1 D. Wayne’s main hope was a threatening presence at the quarter pole, but once again faded a bit when the real running began. He must be considered a threat on his best, but until he proves to me that he can get a distance, I can not make him one of my top selections. 8 Schoolyard Dreams 20-1 Derek Ryan trained colt defeated the Derby winner just a few races ago, but then disappointed in the Wood Memorial. He has been freshened since then and if he can improve just a little bit, may prove to be horse with a chance in the stretch. 9 Jackson Bend 20-1 Steps in as the only LaPenta/ Zito colt to make the trip to Baltimore. Hard trying little guy deserves another chance after the Derby craziness. I still see the distance as the main drawback to his win chances once again. 10 Aikenite 25-1 Pletcher’s other entrant showed improvement in the Derby Trial, but I believe that was mainly due to the shorter distance. 1 3/16 should prove tough for the son of Yes It’s True, who probably will have a future rallying in one-turn races. 11 A Little Warm 25-1 New shooter went from a stakes win sprinting to a solid effort in the Louisiana Derby. Not sure if he can make another big jump up against these at the Preakness distance, but he should be involved in the early stages. 12 First Dude 30-1 Lightly raced and distance bred, this colt may still have a future, but it is hard to see it happen in the Preakness. This Dale Romans' second string colt looks destined to run much like you would expect a second stringer to run. 13 Pleasant Prince 30-1 The horse who ran close to Ice Box several times seems to be moving in the wrong direction. His connections tried hard to qualify him for the Derby, and it did not work. Now I am afraid they are left with a non-fresh horse with little chance in here. 14 Northern Giant 40-1 Lukas is famous for taking a flyer in Triple Crown races, and that is all that this horse appears to be. I can’t recommend off his Arkansas Derby performance, in which his lack of class seems to have been on display.

On to Pimlico

The celebrations of Kentucky Derby glory are winding down. Big winnings from Derby Day are already earmarked for this, that, and the other thing. Time to slow down, and ease up on the racing discussion. Uh…no! The Preakness has always been one of my favorite races of the year. Often the most formful race of the Triple Crown, the Preakness does not feature the twenty horse pinball effect of the Derby. It is at a distance which better matches the horses running, as opposed to the marathon of the Belmont Stakes. It also offers something no other race in the world can boast…a brand new Kentucky Derby champion on his quest to become racing’s twelfth ever Triple Crown winner. For these reasons and many others, the Preakness is truly one of the great American races, and I will diving in head first over the next twelve days to break down the Preakness, ZATT style. Here is the most current list of Preakness possibles, with my current morning line odds, and quick comment: Aikenite 25-1 Pletcher plan B runner showed improvement in the Derby Trial, but I think that is because of the shorter distance. 1 3/16 will prove tough for the son of Yes It’s True. A Little Warm 25-1 He went from a stakes win sprinting to a solid effort in the Louisiana Derby. Not sure if he can make another big jump up against these, but should be a pace factor. Bushwhacked 20-1 Lightly raced colt is getting better at the right time. I have a lot of respect for his trainer, Jonathan Sheppard, but this is still a lot to ask of a horse who won a maiden sprint in April. Caracortado 15-1 Scarface returns! Likeable California bred has been freshened since the Santa Anita Derby, should get a good stalking trip, and if he takes to dirt…watch out. Dublin 15-1 Actually ran a good race in Louisville, but once again came up a little short in the late stages. A nice horse to be sure, but a flat mile may be the distance he is best suited. Hurricane Ike 15-1 Where did the Derby Trial come from? It was a big performance in his second dirt try. The Preakness will be another huge step up for the Sadler trainee, but his last makes him at least a little interesting. Ice Box 9-2 The Florida Derby win was clearly no fluke, and all in all you could make a solid argument that he ran best at Churchill. Fast pace made his rally all the more potent and may need the same pace to win at Pimlico. Jackson Bend 15-1 May be the more likely of the Lapenta/ Zito colts to make the race. Hard trying little guy deserves another chance after the Derby craziness. Lookin At Lucky 7-2 The trip in the Derby was bad, come to think of it every trip he has had since the Breeders’ Cup have been bad. Sooner or later he will get a good trip. He is the Derby winner’s main threat. Paddy O Prado 10-1 As many predicted, he ran big in Louisville. Not that long ago he was a maiden, but now he may be have progressed enough to win a big one. Can he do it on a fast track? Pleasant Prince 25-1 Connections tried hard to qualify him for the Derby, it did not work. Now I am afraid they are left with a non-fresh horse moving in the wrong direction. Schoolyard Dreams 20-1 He defeated Super Saver just a few races ago, but then disappointed in the Wood Memorial. I still think he may have the potential to be a live longshot in Baltimore. Super Saver 5-2 Derby winner is progressing with each start. His new found ability to rate makes him doubly tough to handle. The horse to beat to get two thirds of the way to immortality. Turf Melody 50-1 Motion runner has not been able to scare the top horses in mediocre preps so far. I can’t recommend him to do any better in the Middle Jewel.

Wood-Working on ZATT

New York’s premier prep for the Kentucky Derby, the Wood Memorial, will celebrate its 86th edition this Saturday at Aqueduct Racetrack. In its rich and storied past, the Wood has seen such winners as Gallant Fox, Count Fleet, Assault, Native Dancer, Nashua, Bold Ruler, Damascus, Foolish Pleasure, Seattle Slew, Pleasant Colony, Slew O’ Gold, Easy Goer, Unbridled’s Song, Fusaichi Pegasus, Empire Maker, Bellamy Road, and I Want Revenge. It has consistently been one of the most important springboards to the Run for the Roses, and this year’s running sets up to be a strong one. With some realistic handicapping, the Wood boils down to a four horse race. Each of the big four of Eskendereya, Awesome Act, Schoolyard Dreams, and Jackson Bend, has a chance to win Saturday and then make a big splash at Churchill Downs. Let’s take a closer look at the Wood Memorial’s fantastic four: Eskendereya (Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew) Trainer: Todd Pletcher   Jockey: John Velazquez   ZATT Odds: 6-5 Eskendereya has been freshened since his monster effort in the Fountain of Youth. In his time away, the Florida Derby finish of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince 1-2, only served to flatter the Wood Memorial favorite. Pletcher believes the beautifully bred colt will run all day, and a performance similar to his last at Gulfstream will make him one of the two choices in Louisville. He appears to be the number one bullet in Pletcher’s brigade of prospects. Awesome Act (Awesome Again—Houdinis Honey by Mr. Prospector) Trainer: Jeremy Noseda   Jockey: Julien Leparoux   ZATT Odds: 2-1 A quality English import, with breeding that suggests a route of ground on dirt, makes for a most interesting Kentucky Derby prospect. Another solid effort, now against tougher competition, in his second dirt race will make the European a hot choice in Kentucky. The chestnut colt, trained by the same Englishman who brought us BC winner Wilko, certainly had the look of quality in his first two U.S. starts. Schoolyard Dreams (Stephen Got Even—Hear This by Prospector’s Music) Trainer: Derek Ryan   Jockey: Ramon Dominguez   ZATT Odds: 5-1 He has all the look of a horse who is getting good at the right time, and has bounced back from an excellent effort in the Tampa Bay Derby with a bullet work over the deep strip in Tampa. The Wood Memorial should offer a good gauge for the Tampa Bay Derby which I have rated very highly. Conditioner Derek Ryan has been high on this colt for a long time and, in the Wood, will finally get the rider he has been wanting to ride Dreams, in Ramon Dominguez. Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil—Sexy Stockings by Tabasco Cat) Trainer: Nick Zito   Jockey: Calvin Borel   ZATT Odds: 5-1 He ran a big race in the Holy Bull, but will have to show improvement after running a well beaten second in the Fountain of Youth, to none other than Eskendereya. I refuse to take this one too lightly, however. He is trained by master conditioner Nick Zito, and has run well in all of his eight starts. Maybe the Fountain of Youth was not his best, he was preferred to Eskendereya by bettors that day, and maybe Zito has him geared up for the big ones. He is still a horse to fear.

Here's What I Saw

As far as the big two, Zenyatta won and Rachel did not. While the Zenyatta juggernaut continues to roll on and on, to the tune of an amazing record of 15 wins in 15 starts, Rachel came back from a long layoff to finish 2nd by ¾ of a length to another John Shirreffs trained runner, Zardana. It was not what everyone expected for last year’s Horse of the Year. Rachel was clearly short after six months off and was not pushed too hard by rider Calvin Borel. I have little doubt that she will get a lot out of the loss, and will be much improved for her next race. Unfortunately, that will not come in the Apple Blossom on April 9. Zenyatta will be there after her typical awesome performance, but the connections of Rachel Alexandra feel she is not quite ready for the meeting. Hopefully the two superstars will get a chance to settle things on the track sometime soon. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here