Canford Cliffs Can Do

Royal Ascot’s St James's Palace Stakes on June the 15th promises to be a most interesting affair for race fans on both sides of the big pond. With horses like the undefeated English 2000 Guineas winner, Makfi, the 2nd place finisher in both the French and English Guineas, Dick Turpin, and the American star, Noble’s Promise, lining up to do battle, it should be a world class event. With all due respect to each of those excellent three-year-olds, I believe the winner of the Group 1 St James's Palace just ran yesterday at the Curragh. Sent off as the 9-4 favorite, Canford Cliffs fulfilled all the expectations he had been carrying since last Spring, with his scintillating three length success in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. This is the same horse that both jockey, Richard Hughes and trainer Richard Hannon had been raving about even before his first stakes win. Canford Cliffs romped home by six lengths in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot last June, in only his second lifetime start. He had run well since, but not quite well enough to get a win in three stakes races since that fantastic start to his career. He was coming off a rallying 3rd place finish in the year's first classic at Newmarket in the English 2,000 Guineas three weeks ago. Going in to yesterday's race doubters questioned the son of Tagula’s ability to handle the mile against top company. Those doubts were laid to rest as Canford Cliffs relaxed early, and exploded down the lane to canter clear of his outclassed competition. A firmer turf course and a quicker early tempo then seen in England certainly proved to his liking. The impressive victory in the Irish Classic was sweet vindication for his connection's belief that the colt is the best that Hughes has ever rode for his father-in-law, and the best horse the conditioner has ever had in 40 years as a trainer. A return to Royal Ascot next month for the St James's Palace Stakes will be a huge test for the stretch running Canford Cliffs. The race is shaping up as a key event, and the mile run over the historic course should provide some clarity as to who is the top sophomore miler in Europe. Makfi is unbeaten and the winner of the most important mile to date. Dick Turpin has proved to be top class on numerous occasions, and Noble’s Promise is a most interesting American invader, but from what I saw yesterday, it will be Canford Cliffs who is the one they will all have to beat.

The Middle Jewel Takes Shape

Eight days from race day, and the Preakness field still has questions, but it is much closer to taking shape than it was a couple of days ago. At this time, here are the 14 sophomores I see as most likely to line up in the Preakness starting gate, along with my rating of each: 1 Lookin At Lucky 3-1 Isn’t the 2009 two-year-old champion is due for a fair chance. A grinder who has run well in every start, had no chance in the Derby after the first quarter mile. Needs only that elusive good trip to wear down the Derby winner down the lane, and prove he is still a champion. 2 Super Saver 5-2 The Derby winner has the tactical advantage of being near or on the lead. He has been well handled this year and appears to be in the midst of peaking at the perfect time. He will be the one to pass if you want to win the Preakness, and will have every chance to head to New York as a Triple Crown contender. 3 Caracortado 15-1 California bred gelding was up against slow paces and a rough trip in his last two. The talented colt has been freshened and is doing well for his assault on Baltimore. May get a perfect middle of the pack trip to strike as they straighten out, and if he appreciates a return to the dirt, could be the one to pull the upset. 4 Noble’s Promise 10-1 Solid colt returned from bad luck in the Arkansas Derby to run big at Churchill. He looked strong and full of run on the turn, but then hit the distance wall in the stretch. The 1/16 mile shorter distance of the Preakness should help, but the route is still a question. ***Latest News - Noble's Promise will skip the Preakness and run in England instead, via Ray Paulick.*** 5 Hurricane Ike 12-1 The Derby Trial was a big performance in his second dirt try. If the change to dirt is a reason for the apparent rapid improvement, he could prove a dangerous new shooter. The Preakness will be another huge step up for the Sadler trainee, but his last makes him quite interesting. 6 Paddy O’Prado 8-1 One of the talked about horses, he ran a big race in Louisville. Not that long ago he was a maiden, but now he may be have progressed enough to be a major threat against anyone. I wonder if he moved up in the slop, but he must be respected off his recent form. 7 Dublin 15-1 D. Wayne’s main hope was a threatening presence at the quarter pole, but once again faded a bit when the real running began. He must be considered a threat on his best, but until he proves to me that he can get a distance, I can not make him one of my top selections. 8 Schoolyard Dreams 20-1 Derek Ryan trained colt defeated the Derby winner just a few races ago, but then disappointed in the Wood Memorial. He has been freshened since then and if he can improve just a little bit, may prove to be horse with a chance in the stretch. 9 Jackson Bend 20-1 Steps in as the only LaPenta/ Zito colt to make the trip to Baltimore. Hard trying little guy deserves another chance after the Derby craziness. I still see the distance as the main drawback to his win chances once again. 10 Aikenite 25-1 Pletcher’s other entrant showed improvement in the Derby Trial, but I believe that was mainly due to the shorter distance. 1 3/16 should prove tough for the son of Yes It’s True, who probably will have a future rallying in one-turn races. 11 A Little Warm 25-1 New shooter went from a stakes win sprinting to a solid effort in the Louisiana Derby. Not sure if he can make another big jump up against these at the Preakness distance, but he should be involved in the early stages. 12 First Dude 30-1 Lightly raced and distance bred, this colt may still have a future, but it is hard to see it happen in the Preakness. This Dale Romans' second string colt looks destined to run much like you would expect a second stringer to run. 13 Pleasant Prince 30-1 The horse who ran close to Ice Box several times seems to be moving in the wrong direction. His connections tried hard to qualify him for the Derby, and it did not work. Now I am afraid they are left with a non-fresh horse with little chance in here. 14 Northern Giant 40-1 Lukas is famous for taking a flyer in Triple Crown races, and that is all that this horse appears to be. I can’t recommend off his Arkansas Derby performance, in which his lack of class seems to have been on display.

Derby Day in the Natural State

D. Wayne Lukas once ruled over the Derby-Preakness-Belmont landscape with a confident and steady hand that saw him win an incredible 13 times. Such a consistent threat in the Triple Crown races was Lukas, that he once won six consecutive crown races with Tabasco Cat, Thunder Gulch, Timber Country, and Grindstone in 1994-96. His last win came in 2000 with the longshot Belmont winner Commendable. In the ten years that have passed since the Hall of Fame trainer last found himself in a Spring classic winner’s circle, legitimate opportunities have been notably slim. Lukas hopes to end that streak with either of two colts that he has starting in today’s Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. In Dublin and Northern Giant, Lukas has a two-prong attack that could well send him onto Louisville on a winning note, and possibly a return to Triple Crown glory. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

Here's What I Saw

As far as the big two, Zenyatta won and Rachel did not. While the Zenyatta juggernaut continues to roll on and on, to the tune of an amazing record of 15 wins in 15 starts, Rachel came back from a long layoff to finish 2nd by ¾ of a length to another John Shirreffs trained runner, Zardana. It was not what everyone expected for last year’s Horse of the Year. Rachel was clearly short after six months off and was not pushed too hard by rider Calvin Borel. I have little doubt that she will get a lot out of the loss, and will be much improved for her next race. Unfortunately, that will not come in the Apple Blossom on April 9. Zenyatta will be there after her typical awesome performance, but the connections of Rachel Alexandra feel she is not quite ready for the meeting. Hopefully the two superstars will get a chance to settle things on the track sometime soon. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

Down and Derby c16

The Run for the Roses, Christmas, for any self respecting race fan, is only 16 weeks away! By now you are all familiar with the plan, Zipse at the Track will fill out the Kentucky Derby starting gate with 20 horses, in three categories, to keep your Kentucky bound eyes on. The Big 8 will include the eight horses I feel the most likely to win come the first Saturday in May. The Hidden Dragons will include the horses laying in wait and ready to breathe fire in the near future, and the Forget Me Nots category will feature those horses that may not be currently on the forefront of anyone’s mind, but are eligible to be there, with one solid race. I will unveil the categories one at a time to begin, and after that, they will form a Top 20 list all the way to the Derby. This week, the… Forget Me Nots 1 Bulls and Bears (Holy Bull - Cherokee Canyon by Cherokee Run) No, I have not forgotten about this Richard Violette trained colt. His two races, a gutsy maiden win over Discreetly Mine at Belmont, and a fast finishing fifth in Saratoga’s Sanford Stakes, both demonstrated qualities I look forward to in a Derby horse. In his maiden win, he overcame the kind of adversity horses will be tested for in the Derby. In the Sanford, he dropped back to last, swung out for the drive, and despite running erratically while looking for space to run, he came home full of run, but just a little late in the blanket finish. The gray son of Holy Bull had some setbacks that kept him from the races since, but looks to have all the tools to make a big splash when he returns to the races. 2 Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway - Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew) One of the Pletcher brigade, Eskendereya has excelled in his two dirt races after beginning his career on the turf. The Breeders Cup Juvenile appears to be a throw out race for the regally bred colt, as he was bothered significantly on a roughly run first turn. Back on dirt, he made most of a good ride on the pace, to easily handle a strong allowance field at Gulfstream Park. The win puts him on track to be a major player in the South Florida preps and further improvement could move the youngster, who is now two for two on dirt, even higher on my Derby chart. 3 Eightyfiveinafifty (Forest Camp - Lifeinthefastlane by Unbridled‘s Song) The aptly named son of Forest Camp is speeding his way right into everyone’s must watch list. The Derby distance will be a big question mark, but this horse has oodles of ability. He has only two races so far, the first of which was in one of the key maiden races of 2009. He battled through fast fractions and tired late in a stakes quality field (Dublin won the Hopeful in his next start after winning this one) to finish 3rd. After time off from sore shins and a hock issue, he returned today and won a maiden at Aqueduct by 17 lengths. Now it is a question of stretching this talented horse out around two turns, but 2010 is off to a great start for the Gary Contessa trained colt. 4 Noble’s Promise (Cuvee - The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick) Why is this horse not much higher on my Derby list? Two reasons: breeding and dirt. He clearly was an excellent juvenile, arguably the second best in the country. He ran six races and each one was top-notch, and because of this obvious quality, he earned a place on my list. The problem is he is a colt who has never raced on dirt, and while some horses can make the transition to dirt seamlessly, he has the added negative of breeding that screams sprint. The day a son of Cuvee wins the Derby is the day I stop writing this column. I believe this one may continue to do well until the distance gets to nine or farther. He very well may make it to the Derby starting gate, but that is as far as he will go. 5 Thiskyhasnolimit (Sky Mesa - Lovely Regina by Deputy Minister) There is much to like about this Steve Asmussen trained colt, but he went from major player to forgotten horse with one questionable performance. His last race saw him finish a well beaten sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club, but being too far off of Super Saver’s pace and then running into heavy traffic left him with no chance. Before that, the beautifully bred son of Sky Mesa ran a big race to win the Iroquois Stakes, his second win over the Churchill strip. Once he learns how to put his talent towards consistent running, he will become a major player once again. The Asmussen stable still likes him and so do I. 6 Pulsion (Include - Spring by Stravinsky) One of my longshot selections for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he limped across the finish line a well beaten 11th. After the race he came back a little worse for the wear from being banged around hard on the first turn. Fully recovered, the distance bred son of Include is now back on the work tab at Gulfstream Park, in preparation to test the waters on dirt for the first time. Before the rough BC, Pulsion had been a horse on the improve, culminating with a fast closing finish to nab 2nd in Lookin at Lucky’s Norfolk. This is a horse who may appreciate dirt and the added distances that are ahead of him. On a sad note, I would like to pass on my condolences to the connections of Clutch Player. One of my Hidden Dragons, Clutch Player, owned by Kaleem Shah and trained by Bob Baffert, died on Monday after a short battle with a form of pneumonia. Clutch Player was a horse with limitless potential, and I can not imagine the sorrow felt by the people closest to him. He was sadly replaced on my Hidden Dragon list by Hawaiian Springs. Next week the First Top 20…