Down and Derby c16

The Run for the Roses, Christmas, for any self respecting race fan, is only 16 weeks away! By now you are all familiar with the plan, Zipse at the Track will fill out the Kentucky Derby starting gate with 20 horses, in three categories, to keep your Kentucky bound eyes on. The Big 8 will include the eight horses I feel the most likely to win come the first Saturday in May. The Hidden Dragons will include the horses laying in wait and ready to breathe fire in the near future, and the Forget Me Nots category will feature those horses that may not be currently on the forefront of anyone’s mind, but are eligible to be there, with one solid race. I will unveil the categories one at a time to begin, and after that, they will form a Top 20 list all the way to the Derby. This week, the… Forget Me Nots 1 Bulls and Bears (Holy Bull - Cherokee Canyon by Cherokee Run) No, I have not forgotten about this Richard Violette trained colt. His two races, a gutsy maiden win over Discreetly Mine at Belmont, and a fast finishing fifth in Saratoga’s Sanford Stakes, both demonstrated qualities I look forward to in a Derby horse. In his maiden win, he overcame the kind of adversity horses will be tested for in the Derby. In the Sanford, he dropped back to last, swung out for the drive, and despite running erratically while looking for space to run, he came home full of run, but just a little late in the blanket finish. The gray son of Holy Bull had some setbacks that kept him from the races since, but looks to have all the tools to make a big splash when he returns to the races. 2 Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway - Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew) One of the Pletcher brigade, Eskendereya has excelled in his two dirt races after beginning his career on the turf. The Breeders Cup Juvenile appears to be a throw out race for the regally bred colt, as he was bothered significantly on a roughly run first turn. Back on dirt, he made most of a good ride on the pace, to easily handle a strong allowance field at Gulfstream Park. The win puts him on track to be a major player in the South Florida preps and further improvement could move the youngster, who is now two for two on dirt, even higher on my Derby chart. 3 Eightyfiveinafifty (Forest Camp - Lifeinthefastlane by Unbridled‘s Song) The aptly named son of Forest Camp is speeding his way right into everyone’s must watch list. The Derby distance will be a big question mark, but this horse has oodles of ability. He has only two races so far, the first of which was in one of the key maiden races of 2009. He battled through fast fractions and tired late in a stakes quality field (Dublin won the Hopeful in his next start after winning this one) to finish 3rd. After time off from sore shins and a hock issue, he returned today and won a maiden at Aqueduct by 17 lengths. Now it is a question of stretching this talented horse out around two turns, but 2010 is off to a great start for the Gary Contessa trained colt. 4 Noble’s Promise (Cuvee - The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick) Why is this horse not much higher on my Derby list? Two reasons: breeding and dirt. He clearly was an excellent juvenile, arguably the second best in the country. He ran six races and each one was top-notch, and because of this obvious quality, he earned a place on my list. The problem is he is a colt who has never raced on dirt, and while some horses can make the transition to dirt seamlessly, he has the added negative of breeding that screams sprint. The day a son of Cuvee wins the Derby is the day I stop writing this column. I believe this one may continue to do well until the distance gets to nine or farther. He very well may make it to the Derby starting gate, but that is as far as he will go. 5 Thiskyhasnolimit (Sky Mesa - Lovely Regina by Deputy Minister) There is much to like about this Steve Asmussen trained colt, but he went from major player to forgotten horse with one questionable performance. His last race saw him finish a well beaten sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club, but being too far off of Super Saver’s pace and then running into heavy traffic left him with no chance. Before that, the beautifully bred son of Sky Mesa ran a big race to win the Iroquois Stakes, his second win over the Churchill strip. Once he learns how to put his talent towards consistent running, he will become a major player once again. The Asmussen stable still likes him and so do I. 6 Pulsion (Include - Spring by Stravinsky) One of my longshot selections for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he limped across the finish line a well beaten 11th. After the race he came back a little worse for the wear from being banged around hard on the first turn. Fully recovered, the distance bred son of Include is now back on the work tab at Gulfstream Park, in preparation to test the waters on dirt for the first time. Before the rough BC, Pulsion had been a horse on the improve, culminating with a fast closing finish to nab 2nd in Lookin at Lucky’s Norfolk. This is a horse who may appreciate dirt and the added distances that are ahead of him. On a sad note, I would like to pass on my condolences to the connections of Clutch Player. One of my Hidden Dragons, Clutch Player, owned by Kaleem Shah and trained by Bob Baffert, died on Monday after a short battle with a form of pneumonia. Clutch Player was a horse with limitless potential, and I can not imagine the sorrow felt by the people closest to him. He was sadly replaced on my Hidden Dragon list by Hawaiian Springs. Next week the First Top 20…

Down and Derby c17

An-tic-i-pa-tion is keeping me waiting…17 weeks until the Kentucky Derby! As you know, Zipse at the Track will fill out the Kentucky Derby starting gate with 20 horses, in three categories, to keep your Winter book eyes on.  The Big 8 will include the eight horses I feel the most likely to win come the first Saturday in May. The Hidden Dragons will include the horses laying in wait and ready to breathe fire in the near future, and the Forget Me Nots category will feature those horses that may not be currently on the forefront of anyone’s mind, but are eligible to be there, with one solid race. I will unveil the categories one at a time to begin, and after that, they will form a Top 20 list all the way to the Derby. This week, the… Hidden Dragons 1 Take Control (A.P. Indy - Azeri by Jade Hunter) Bang. Zoom! In the 12 seconds it took for Take Control to run like a horse- a-fire the final furlong of a recent Santa Anita maiden race, he went from a fascination to a budding star. The first foal of three-year champion, Azeri can run, and he showed it with a flourish. He was boxed-in, stuck on the rail, well off a slow pace, and running very greenly, when suddenly he was maneuvered out for clear sailing and exploded as if he was equipped with a jet pack. Soon after the wire, the Baffert trainee was seven lengths ahead of the field. He has all the look of a horse in need of the Derby distance and he may be that rare horse who turns out to be as good as his breeding suggests. 2 Awesome Act (Awesome Again - Houdini‘s Honey by Mr. Prospector) Do you remember the horse who was absolutely flying down the middle of the Santa Anita lawn in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf? His name was Awesome Act and he only was fourth that day, but his stretch run was impressive enough to think this colt may be the real deal. The bad news is the English based horse has never run on dirt in his six starts, but the good news is that he is bred to be better on dirt than turf. After his flying finish at Santa Anita, I expect his connections will be eager to get him to America again and ultimately on to Louisville. 3 Tiz Chrome (Tiznow - Woodland Shadow by Woodman) He has only sprinted so far, but the son of Tiznow has displayed a whole lot to like. Tiz Chrome has the breeding to go long, the talent to win a stakes soon and the looks to dazzle. Purchased after his maiden win at Churchill, the big colt was shipped to California and under the new care of Bob Baffert, scored another sharp victory. He has already proven he can win on dirt and synthetics and will be well liked when moves up into stakes company over a route of ground. If the Kentucky Derby was merely a beauty contest, he would be one of the major players. 4 Rule (Roman Ruler - Rockcide by Personal Flag) How can a two-time stakes winner of more than half a million dollars still be on the Hidden Dragon list? When you win both of your stakes at the small track Delta Downs that’s how. Part of the powerhouse WinStar contingent and trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Roman Ruler has solid experience and has continuously improved in his five starts. He has quality throughout his breeding that is a good cross of speed and distance. Rule will have to prove that he can compete against big time competition in the near future, but so far so good. 5 Clutch Player (Malibu Moon - Riverkeeper by Awesome Again) Are you starting to get the idea that Mr. Baffert is absolutely loaded with potential Derby horses? Me too. This son of the emerging A.P. Indy stallion, has only one six furlong maiden race to date, but it was a most impressive debut, easily winning in fast time. What makes it all the more interesting is that this colt is not bred to sprint, but rather to excel at distances of nine furlongs and up. You never know until they stretch out, but much like his stablemate Take Control, Clutch Player’s second start will be watched very intently. 6 Dryfly (Jump Start - Creeksider by Topsider) The Lynn Whiting trained gelding has three races to date; two were good and one was not. Also a grandson of the great sire A.P. Indy, Dryfly rebounded from a dreadful performance on the East Coast to win a sharp allowance race in early November. The first out winner was quite impressive and the fact that the race was at Churchill Downs doesn’t hurt. His breeding looks a little questionable at first glance, but you do not have to go back very far to see solid classic influences. His race over the Churchill strip was good enough to forgive his second start for now and maybe Whiting has a little more Lil E Tee magic in him. Next week the Forget Me Nots…