Mission Impazible No Longer for Todd?

As I slowly drifted into a Derby Eve slumber, one name kept rolling through my mind. Surprisingly it was not my top pick, Awesome Act. Nor was it the horse to beat, Lookin at Lucky, or the Girl Power entrant, Devil May Care. It wasn’t even Calvin Borel’s strong entry, Super Saver. Rather my brain was stuck on one name…Mission Impazible. Interesting. What does it all mean? As only a minor believer in the value of hunches or premonitions, I greet this bedtime revelation with skeptical optimism. The good news is that Mission Impazible was already one of my Fab Five, and even better he is clearly the longest shot of the bunch. I have him in several live tickets in Derby Future Exactas, and Oaks-Derby Doubles, so a Mission Impazible victory would be a nice collect. As you may have guessed, the other four members of my Fab Five are the same four mentioned at the beginning of this piece, and I believe the horse that becomes the 136th champion of the Kentucky Derby will be one the five. With the expected fast pace materializing, I see this as a race that will be very hard for any speed horse to win. Benefiting from the tiring leaders should be the English invader Awesome Act. The son of Awesome Again is well suited to appreciate the grueling late stages of the Kentucky Derby, and his explosive turn of foot should give him every chance as the horse turn for home. Broodmare sire Mr. Prospector, also gives Awesome Act a great chance to thrive on an off track. I expect him to redeem himself for a poor Wood Memorial, where everything went wrong, and premonition or not, he is still my top pick. Lookin at Lucky is hard to ignore. He is bred for the trip, is the juvenile champion, and he is consistent as they come. If not for bad racing luck, Lucky could have an even better record than the excellent 8-6-1-1 that he has compiled. Drawing the 1 post did him no favors, and an off track could compromise his chances, but it should come as no surprise to anyone to see the Bob Baffert trained champion end up in the winner’s circle.  Mission Impazible is a bit of a wildcard, but one with much to like. The son of the mercurial sire Unbridled’s Song has a racing pattern that I like to see in the Derby. He displayed a ton of talent early in his juvenile season and then was put on the shelf with minor physical problems. In his three races this year, he has shown steady improvement culminating with a win in the Louisiana Derby. He is working well, and has solid wet track experience. All in all he is a very attractive longshot. Devil May Care is another who is a bit of unknown. You never know for sure if the filly will be good enough to handle the boys, but clearly recent history is in her corner. Like Mission Impazible, she should get a favorable position in the middle of the pack. She has displayed clear signs of being a good one with wins in the Frizette and Bonnie Miss, and possibly as much as anyone in the field, may have the ability to still improve a great deal. She won her last race nicely, despite running greenly, and Pletcher has always said that she will relish a distance. Rounding out my Fab Five is Super Saver. The only speed horse I have selected, Super Saver has the advantage of excellent experience over both a sloppy track and over the Churchill Downs strip. He has two solid preps under his belt and should be ready to fire his best shot. The pace scenario does worry me a little, but there is no one I would rather have in the irons on Derby Day than Calvin Borel. Super Saver looks the part and is bred to be a Derby winner. At this time it looks like he may be vying for favoritism, but he has too many positives to overlook even if he is a little overbet. Happy Derby Day everyone. Win, lose, or draw, I hope you all enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports all day long.

Oaks Day Doings

First thing first, Blind Luck may not be the most talented filly in the world, but she is a champion through and through. I was thoroughly impressed with her from-dead-last rally, and here’s why: The pace was quite moderate, it would have been so much easier for Blind Luck to uncork her patented rally with a brisk pace. She has rallied before, but circling a full field of 14 was a whole new ball game. She passed this new test with flying colors. Finally, the filly she nipped at the wire, Evening Jewel, is obviously very good, underrated, and most importantly, she was absolutely full of run in the stretch. Only a gritty champion like Blind Luck could have beat her today. Blind Luck is a champion, and it will take a Devil May Care upset win in the Derby to steal one bit of her sophomore filly thunder. Now for the less happy news. Rachel Alexandra lost. Again. Rachel Alexandra ran the greatest race I have ever seen a filly run in last year’s Haskell runaway. Since then, things have been anything but easy. Three races and three doggedly tough photo finishes. The first she won, in the Woodward, and the last two she has been defeated. The two losses this year were good races by normal horse’s standards, but Rachel Alexandra is no normal horse. Clearly Rachel is not, to this point at least, the same Rachel we grew to love in 2009. It is not uncommon for fillies to regress after time away from the races. Filly winners of the Kentucky Derby illustrate this phenomenon. Genuine Risk only ran in allowance company as an older filly, winning two of three, and Winning Colors, finished out of the money in five out of her seven starts at four years of age. It is still too early to tell what this means for Rachel’s future, but I will never see her as anything but the champion that she is. Do not give up on her yet. And now for another shameless plug…ZATT the Magazine has launched!!! It’s official, my dream is a reality. Please join me at http://www.zattmag.com/. Derby tease (more to come tomorrow.) The Kentucky Derby will be won by one of these five: Awesome Act, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Super Saver, or Devil May Care.

Down and Derby – It’s Awesome!

The waiting is almost over. The final moments of anticipation disappear, as the clock ticks closer to seeing twenty of the best three-year-old Thoroughbreds in the world test themselves in the most exciting two minutes in sports. I feel the importance of the moment as my palms sweat and my breathing shallows. The final seconds seem to move in super slow motion as the horses circle behind the two Kentucky Derby starting gates and are led into their ultimate date with destiny. One of them will be two minutes away from immortality. We are almost there. The 136th Run for the Roses is upon us, and it is finally time to get Down and Derby!!! ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

Bits and Pieces

Before I jump into more Derby and Oaks thoughts, I would like to pass on some exciting news happening here at ZATT headquarters… ZATT the Magazine is ready to launch! A personal dream of mine is just days away from becoming reality. The online magazine will launch this Friday morning at http://www.zattmag.com/. Look for many of the features you have come to expect on this blog, as well as much, much more. Special thanks to Issue #1 contributors: Steve Haskin, Bill Pressey, Ciaran De Barra, Claire Novak, Kate Hunter, Kerry Thomas, Sid Fernando, Marti McGinnis, Eric Kalet, Marti Guzman, Cecilia G. Felix, Jamie Newell, Patrick Sheehan and Sue Kawczynski. ZATT the Magazine promises to be bigger and better than I have ever done before, and it truly is “For the Love of Thoroughbred Horse Racing!” I am honored to announce that I have been named the Thoroughbred Racing in New York (TRNY) Member of the Week. This is a sensational Facebook group run by the most creative man in the business, Ernie Munick. As Member of the Week, I was able to write a piece on how I fell in love with horses and racing. I plan to publish the piece on ZATT soon, but in the meantime, please check it out at http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=8466519122#!/topic.php?uid=8466519122&topic=19510 If you are not yet a Facebook member or a TRNY member, join up, it is most worthwhile. ZATT on the radio - I will be previewing Churchill’s huge weekend, Derby et al, on Steve Borstein’s daily sports show. The show airs live from Steve’s studios in Farmington, NM... home of Chip Woolley, trainer of Mine That Bird. It can be found live on this website http://www.foxsports1340.com/. Click on the "listen live" button on the center of the home page .... the show is called "First Sports with Steve Bortstein." My time slot is scheduled to be Friday, Oaks Day, at 9:30am EST. It is a live show, so be sure to tune in Friday morning! OK! Now back to business… One of my favorite, if not my favorite, bets of the year is the Oaks-Derby Double. Derby action can begin early and what better way to begin, than starting your bet off with a win in the Kentucky Oaks. I have had some big scores with this bet in the past, and once again, I am looking for a solid payoff this year. At the time of this writing, Devil May Care is still possible for either race, but I am guessing that the Derby will be the choice. So with that in mind and barring any last minute changes, here is my Oaks-Derby play: Kentucky Oaks (2) - Blind Luck (the favorite, but a must play) and It’s Tea Time (a quickly developing Dynaformer filly with some nice odds.) Kentucky Derby (7) - Awesome Act (my top play with the odds), Lookin at Lucky (the one to beat), Endorsement (the now horse), Devil May Care (the filly has a shot), Mission Impazible (might be ready to peak), Super Saver (Borel on a Churchill horse…beware), Sidney’s Candy (not sure, but he might be this good), There you have it…14 combinations with many of them likely to pay well into the triple digits. Good luck!

Wood-Working on ZATT

New York’s premier prep for the Kentucky Derby, the Wood Memorial, will celebrate its 86th edition this Saturday at Aqueduct Racetrack. In its rich and storied past, the Wood has seen such winners as Gallant Fox, Count Fleet, Assault, Native Dancer, Nashua, Bold Ruler, Damascus, Foolish Pleasure, Seattle Slew, Pleasant Colony, Slew O’ Gold, Easy Goer, Unbridled’s Song, Fusaichi Pegasus, Empire Maker, Bellamy Road, and I Want Revenge. It has consistently been one of the most important springboards to the Run for the Roses, and this year’s running sets up to be a strong one. With some realistic handicapping, the Wood boils down to a four horse race. Each of the big four of Eskendereya, Awesome Act, Schoolyard Dreams, and Jackson Bend, has a chance to win Saturday and then make a big splash at Churchill Downs. Let’s take a closer look at the Wood Memorial’s fantastic four: Eskendereya (Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew) Trainer: Todd Pletcher   Jockey: John Velazquez   ZATT Odds: 6-5 Eskendereya has been freshened since his monster effort in the Fountain of Youth. In his time away, the Florida Derby finish of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince 1-2, only served to flatter the Wood Memorial favorite. Pletcher believes the beautifully bred colt will run all day, and a performance similar to his last at Gulfstream will make him one of the two choices in Louisville. He appears to be the number one bullet in Pletcher’s brigade of prospects. Awesome Act (Awesome Again—Houdinis Honey by Mr. Prospector) Trainer: Jeremy Noseda   Jockey: Julien Leparoux   ZATT Odds: 2-1 A quality English import, with breeding that suggests a route of ground on dirt, makes for a most interesting Kentucky Derby prospect. Another solid effort, now against tougher competition, in his second dirt race will make the European a hot choice in Kentucky. The chestnut colt, trained by the same Englishman who brought us BC winner Wilko, certainly had the look of quality in his first two U.S. starts. Schoolyard Dreams (Stephen Got Even—Hear This by Prospector’s Music) Trainer: Derek Ryan   Jockey: Ramon Dominguez   ZATT Odds: 5-1 He has all the look of a horse who is getting good at the right time, and has bounced back from an excellent effort in the Tampa Bay Derby with a bullet work over the deep strip in Tampa. The Wood Memorial should offer a good gauge for the Tampa Bay Derby which I have rated very highly. Conditioner Derek Ryan has been high on this colt for a long time and, in the Wood, will finally get the rider he has been wanting to ride Dreams, in Ramon Dominguez. Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil—Sexy Stockings by Tabasco Cat) Trainer: Nick Zito   Jockey: Calvin Borel   ZATT Odds: 5-1 He ran a big race in the Holy Bull, but will have to show improvement after running a well beaten second in the Fountain of Youth, to none other than Eskendereya. I refuse to take this one too lightly, however. He is trained by master conditioner Nick Zito, and has run well in all of his eight starts. Maybe the Fountain of Youth was not his best, he was preferred to Eskendereya by bettors that day, and maybe Zito has him geared up for the big ones. He is still a horse to fear.

Down and Derby c17

An-tic-i-pa-tion is keeping me waiting…17 weeks until the Kentucky Derby! As you know, Zipse at the Track will fill out the Kentucky Derby starting gate with 20 horses, in three categories, to keep your Winter book eyes on.  The Big 8 will include the eight horses I feel the most likely to win come the first Saturday in May. The Hidden Dragons will include the horses laying in wait and ready to breathe fire in the near future, and the Forget Me Nots category will feature those horses that may not be currently on the forefront of anyone’s mind, but are eligible to be there, with one solid race. I will unveil the categories one at a time to begin, and after that, they will form a Top 20 list all the way to the Derby. This week, the… Hidden Dragons 1 Take Control (A.P. Indy - Azeri by Jade Hunter) Bang. Zoom! In the 12 seconds it took for Take Control to run like a horse- a-fire the final furlong of a recent Santa Anita maiden race, he went from a fascination to a budding star. The first foal of three-year champion, Azeri can run, and he showed it with a flourish. He was boxed-in, stuck on the rail, well off a slow pace, and running very greenly, when suddenly he was maneuvered out for clear sailing and exploded as if he was equipped with a jet pack. Soon after the wire, the Baffert trainee was seven lengths ahead of the field. He has all the look of a horse in need of the Derby distance and he may be that rare horse who turns out to be as good as his breeding suggests. 2 Awesome Act (Awesome Again - Houdini‘s Honey by Mr. Prospector) Do you remember the horse who was absolutely flying down the middle of the Santa Anita lawn in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf? His name was Awesome Act and he only was fourth that day, but his stretch run was impressive enough to think this colt may be the real deal. The bad news is the English based horse has never run on dirt in his six starts, but the good news is that he is bred to be better on dirt than turf. After his flying finish at Santa Anita, I expect his connections will be eager to get him to America again and ultimately on to Louisville. 3 Tiz Chrome (Tiznow - Woodland Shadow by Woodman) He has only sprinted so far, but the son of Tiznow has displayed a whole lot to like. Tiz Chrome has the breeding to go long, the talent to win a stakes soon and the looks to dazzle. Purchased after his maiden win at Churchill, the big colt was shipped to California and under the new care of Bob Baffert, scored another sharp victory. He has already proven he can win on dirt and synthetics and will be well liked when moves up into stakes company over a route of ground. If the Kentucky Derby was merely a beauty contest, he would be one of the major players. 4 Rule (Roman Ruler - Rockcide by Personal Flag) How can a two-time stakes winner of more than half a million dollars still be on the Hidden Dragon list? When you win both of your stakes at the small track Delta Downs that’s how. Part of the powerhouse WinStar contingent and trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Roman Ruler has solid experience and has continuously improved in his five starts. He has quality throughout his breeding that is a good cross of speed and distance. Rule will have to prove that he can compete against big time competition in the near future, but so far so good. 5 Clutch Player (Malibu Moon - Riverkeeper by Awesome Again) Are you starting to get the idea that Mr. Baffert is absolutely loaded with potential Derby horses? Me too. This son of the emerging A.P. Indy stallion, has only one six furlong maiden race to date, but it was a most impressive debut, easily winning in fast time. What makes it all the more interesting is that this colt is not bred to sprint, but rather to excel at distances of nine furlongs and up. You never know until they stretch out, but much like his stablemate Take Control, Clutch Player’s second start will be watched very intently. 6 Dryfly (Jump Start - Creeksider by Topsider) The Lynn Whiting trained gelding has three races to date; two were good and one was not. Also a grandson of the great sire A.P. Indy, Dryfly rebounded from a dreadful performance on the East Coast to win a sharp allowance race in early November. The first out winner was quite impressive and the fact that the race was at Churchill Downs doesn’t hurt. His breeding looks a little questionable at first glance, but you do not have to go back very far to see solid classic influences. His race over the Churchill strip was good enough to forgive his second start for now and maybe Whiting has a little more Lil E Tee magic in him. Next week the Forget Me Nots…