Here’s Why Fly Down Wins

There is no doubt that the Mid-Summer Derby is one of my favorite races of the season. Year and year out, it acts as a great bridge between the Triple Crown and the Breeders’ Cup. This year’s edition of the Travers is no different. What it lacks in superstars, it makes up for with competitiveness. There is literally not one horse, among the eleven, that would be a major surprise to me if they crossed the wire first. Having said that, I have a couple of reasons why I believe Fly Down may be the one to prove victorious. Reason number one is stamina. In watching years of Travers, it occurs to me that this is a race in which the need for stamina is somewhat underrated. Saratoga’s dirt course combined with the classic distance seem to weed out the horses that do not appreciate the extra furlong. This year there is a clear division, in my mind at least, between horses who will get the distance, and those who will deploy the parachute at some point in the stretch. You can make a case that the only four likely to not need an oxygen tank at the eighth pole are the four horses who ran (and did well) in the triple crown races, namely Super Saver, Ice Box, First Dude, and Fly Down. The other seven have never been the distance for a variety of reasons, but the bottom line is the Travers will prove a tough race to attempt the distance for the first time. I would be more likely to forgive this drawback if any of the other seven had breeding that screamed distance … none do. Reason number two is pace. A full field of eleven gunning for a million dollar win should ensure solid early fractions. Also, in looking over the field’s past performances, there are several horses in here who need to be on or near the lead. The combination of those two things have bells and whistles going off in my handicapping brain. A fast and contested pace, with many of the field’s contestants not wanting the distance anyway, should lead to some serious staggering down the lane. It also should set the race up nicely for the closers. For that reason, I prefer Nick Zito’s pair of Fly Down and Ice Box over my other two contenders based on stamina, Super Saver and First Dude, who both want to be part of the early pace. Of Fly Down and Ice Box, I believe the former is just a better horse, and will beat his barn mate. A repeat of his Dwyer or Belmont performance should be plenty good enough to see Fly Down victorious in tomorrow’s Travers, and don’t be too surprised if you see New York Nick Zito all smiles after the race with a 1-2 finish. It ought to be a fun, and counting the hours down in anticipation of the big race, has me recalling some of my favorite Travers. There may be none more memorable than my very first. The year was 1978 … for my memories on that epic showdown, please visit today’s piece on ZATT History.

Look to the Longshots In the Belmont Stakes

I have been watching The Test of Champions for the past four decades, and I know it takes a unique kind of horse to succeed over a mile and a half at Big Sandy. The Belmont Stakes is a race that will underscore the greatness of a champion, but it also is one that tends to point out the deficiencies of a lesser horse. Over the years, I have learned to look past the favorites who will be beaten at Belmont. The average winning payoff for the Belmont winner over the last decade is a hefty 40 dollars, and I expect more of the same this year, so my money will be on the live longshots over the clear favorite. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

Belmont Stakes Blues

No Triple Crown this year. So what. We have not had a sweep in 32 years, and I am used to living without one, and now we do not have to worry about being disappointed by the Derby and Preakness winner going down in New York. The Triple Crown should be reserved for the crème de la crème. If we do not have that this year, than so be it, there should be no Triple Crown winner. Personally, I am not going to cry about it, nor am I going to talk about the Belmont as less of a race because there is no opportunity for a Crown winner. The Belmont is still the Belmont, which is one of the most important races in our nation. This year’s edition will be sans a Derby or Preakness winner, which will guarantee a trio of classic winners in 2010. That could make things very interesting later in the year, say in the Travers, with the three winners hooking up. Without a standout, the Belmont promises to be a very interesting race from both a competitive standpoint as well as a wagering opportunity. I know I am already looking forward to betting against the favorite. Here is a list of horses currently looking at the Belmont Stakes, with my earliest of morning lines: Ice Box   2-1 Fly Down   4-1 First Dude   6-1 Dublin   10-1 Make Music For Me   12-1 Devil May Care   15-1 Uptowncharlybrown   15-1 Game On Dude   15-1 Drosselmeyer   20-1 Stately Victor   20-1 Stay Put   20-1 Setsuko   20-1 New Madrid   20-1 Superstars and world beaters? No, but doesn’t this still look like a pretty interesting race? I will be looking forward to the Belmont Stakes as usual, plus the fabulous card that Belmont puts together for the day. If you want to sing your Belmont Stakes Blues, do it someplace else. ZATT is all in!

On to Pimlico

The celebrations of Kentucky Derby glory are winding down. Big winnings from Derby Day are already earmarked for this, that, and the other thing. Time to slow down, and ease up on the racing discussion. Uh…no! The Preakness has always been one of my favorite races of the year. Often the most formful race of the Triple Crown, the Preakness does not feature the twenty horse pinball effect of the Derby. It is at a distance which better matches the horses running, as opposed to the marathon of the Belmont Stakes. It also offers something no other race in the world can boast…a brand new Kentucky Derby champion on his quest to become racing’s twelfth ever Triple Crown winner. For these reasons and many others, the Preakness is truly one of the great American races, and I will diving in head first over the next twelve days to break down the Preakness, ZATT style. Here is the most current list of Preakness possibles, with my current morning line odds, and quick comment: Aikenite 25-1 Pletcher plan B runner showed improvement in the Derby Trial, but I think that is because of the shorter distance. 1 3/16 will prove tough for the son of Yes It’s True. A Little Warm 25-1 He went from a stakes win sprinting to a solid effort in the Louisiana Derby. Not sure if he can make another big jump up against these, but should be a pace factor. Bushwhacked 20-1 Lightly raced colt is getting better at the right time. I have a lot of respect for his trainer, Jonathan Sheppard, but this is still a lot to ask of a horse who won a maiden sprint in April. Caracortado 15-1 Scarface returns! Likeable California bred has been freshened since the Santa Anita Derby, should get a good stalking trip, and if he takes to dirt…watch out. Dublin 15-1 Actually ran a good race in Louisville, but once again came up a little short in the late stages. A nice horse to be sure, but a flat mile may be the distance he is best suited. Hurricane Ike 15-1 Where did the Derby Trial come from? It was a big performance in his second dirt try. The Preakness will be another huge step up for the Sadler trainee, but his last makes him at least a little interesting. Ice Box 9-2 The Florida Derby win was clearly no fluke, and all in all you could make a solid argument that he ran best at Churchill. Fast pace made his rally all the more potent and may need the same pace to win at Pimlico. Jackson Bend 15-1 May be the more likely of the Lapenta/ Zito colts to make the race. Hard trying little guy deserves another chance after the Derby craziness. Lookin At Lucky 7-2 The trip in the Derby was bad, come to think of it every trip he has had since the Breeders’ Cup have been bad. Sooner or later he will get a good trip. He is the Derby winner’s main threat. Paddy O Prado 10-1 As many predicted, he ran big in Louisville. Not that long ago he was a maiden, but now he may be have progressed enough to win a big one. Can he do it on a fast track? Pleasant Prince 25-1 Connections tried hard to qualify him for the Derby, it did not work. Now I am afraid they are left with a non-fresh horse moving in the wrong direction. Schoolyard Dreams 20-1 He defeated Super Saver just a few races ago, but then disappointed in the Wood Memorial. I still think he may have the potential to be a live longshot in Baltimore. Super Saver 5-2 Derby winner is progressing with each start. His new found ability to rate makes him doubly tough to handle. The horse to beat to get two thirds of the way to immortality. Turf Melody 50-1 Motion runner has not been able to scare the top horses in mediocre preps so far. I can’t recommend him to do any better in the Middle Jewel.

Super Man, Super Relief and Super Saver!

Today is not the day. I refuse to question the brilliance of the Kentucky Derby champion, Super Saver. I will not add fuel to the doubters who believe he can not win the Triple Crown. Nor will I question whether or not he would have won if Ice Box or Lookin at Lucky had smoother trips. Today is not the day to talk about what would have happened if Eskendereya had been able to run. Today is all about Super Saver. Congratulate him and his handlers for winning the greatest of all American horse races. 43-year-old jockey Calvin Borel continues to amaze. He is a true American hero. Raised from modest beginnings in Louisiana, he now sits squarely atop the world of Thoroughbred jockeys. If it is true what they say, and the Kentucky Derby is the race that everyone wants to win, than Calvin Borel must be the envy of all of America’s jockeys. In the last four years, he has won three Derbies, with a third place finish in the other year. A remarkable run, that will be hard to match again in our lifetimes. Borel has won with a favorite, and he has won with a rank outsider. Every Derby mount he rides has a better chance to win, simply because he is on their back. The most recognizable racetrack in the United States, Churchill Downs, is now Calvin’s track. Our newest Kentucky Derby winning trainer, Todd Pletcher, has been the most successful trainer in the 21st century. He has broken his own earnings records, as he’s piled up Eclipse Awards. At 42 years of age, he has accomplished more in the sport than most trainers can even dream of, but still there was something missing. A big something. Without a Kentucky Derby win, Pletcher’s career was incomplete. Like the Hall of Fame quarterback who never won the Super Bowl, Pletcher trained with a 100 pound monkey on his back…until yesterday. Happiness? Joy? Perhaps relief is the best description. Todd Pletcher will never again have to answer questions about never having won the big win. He is now poised to have the greatest year in his stellar career. Sweet relief. As for the Kentucky Derby winner himself, Super Saver is a beautiful colt who has run well in every single one of his races. He has the classic breeding of a champion and has always been considered a horse with the potential to do something really big. In his narrow defeats of 2010, in the Tampa Bay and Arkansas Derbies, he showed courage and gameness despite not being fully cranked up. Super Saver was prepared to peak on the first Saturday in May, and now he is the winner of the Kentucky Derby. He is now the only horse who can win the elusive Triple Crown. Can he win it? Is he the best three-year-old in the nation? We will not start worrying about that until we are within twelve days of the Preakness…on Monday morning!

Amen Hallelujah Done in by a Devil

In yesterday’s column, I expounded the qualities of Malibu Moon as a world class sire. In a perfect lead-in for today’s column, A daughter of Malibu Moon happens to be my number one star of the week. While favorites D’Funnybone and Unrivaled Belle scored in the Swale and Rampart, and Nick Zito’s longshot Ice Box got up in the final jump to win the Florida Derby, it was Todd Pletcher’s filly, Devil May Care, who stole the show. By Malibu Moon out of the Red Ransom mare, Kelli’s Ransom, Devil May Care won her second graded stake in her short career. Last Fall she pointed out her class by accounting for the Grade 1 Frizette in only her second lifetime start. She had some troubles in her last few starts, starting with a cross-country sojourn to run in the BC Juvenile Fillies. A tall order for a young filly who had only two races under her belt. It was her first try on a synthetic surface and she was hindered by a rough trip ending any chance she had for a Breeders’ Cup win. In her first start this year, Devil May Care left her race in the starting gate. Her fractiousness cost her when the real running began, as she flattened out for a fifth place finish in the Silverbulletday Stakes. Her connections lost no faith and brought her right back against a solid field in the Bonnie Miss. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here