Here’s Why Fly Down Wins

There is no doubt that the Mid-Summer Derby is one of my favorite races of the season. Year and year out, it acts as a great bridge between the Triple Crown and the Breeders’ Cup. This year’s edition of the Travers is no different. What it lacks in superstars, it makes up for with competitiveness. There is literally not one horse, among the eleven, that would be a major surprise to me if they crossed the wire first. Having said that, I have a couple of reasons why I believe Fly Down may be the one to prove victorious. Reason number one is stamina. In watching years of Travers, it occurs to me that this is a race in which the need for stamina is somewhat underrated. Saratoga’s dirt course combined with the classic distance seem to weed out the horses that do not appreciate the extra furlong. This year there is a clear division, in my mind at least, between horses who will get the distance, and those who will deploy the parachute at some point in the stretch. You can make a case that the only four likely to not need an oxygen tank at the eighth pole are the four horses who ran (and did well) in the triple crown races, namely Super Saver, Ice Box, First Dude, and Fly Down. The other seven have never been the distance for a variety of reasons, but the bottom line is the Travers will prove a tough race to attempt the distance for the first time. I would be more likely to forgive this drawback if any of the other seven had breeding that screamed distance … none do. Reason number two is pace. A full field of eleven gunning for a million dollar win should ensure solid early fractions. Also, in looking over the field’s past performances, there are several horses in here who need to be on or near the lead. The combination of those two things have bells and whistles going off in my handicapping brain. A fast and contested pace, with many of the field’s contestants not wanting the distance anyway, should lead to some serious staggering down the lane. It also should set the race up nicely for the closers. For that reason, I prefer Nick Zito’s pair of Fly Down and Ice Box over my other two contenders based on stamina, Super Saver and First Dude, who both want to be part of the early pace. Of Fly Down and Ice Box, I believe the former is just a better horse, and will beat his barn mate. A repeat of his Dwyer or Belmont performance should be plenty good enough to see Fly Down victorious in tomorrow’s Travers, and don’t be too surprised if you see New York Nick Zito all smiles after the race with a 1-2 finish. It ought to be a fun, and counting the hours down in anticipation of the big race, has me recalling some of my favorite Travers. There may be none more memorable than my very first. The year was 1978 … for my memories on that epic showdown, please visit today’s piece on ZATT History.

Look to the Longshots In the Belmont Stakes

I have been watching The Test of Champions for the past four decades, and I know it takes a unique kind of horse to succeed over a mile and a half at Big Sandy. The Belmont Stakes is a race that will underscore the greatness of a champion, but it also is one that tends to point out the deficiencies of a lesser horse. Over the years, I have learned to look past the favorites who will be beaten at Belmont. The average winning payoff for the Belmont winner over the last decade is a hefty 40 dollars, and I expect more of the same this year, so my money will be on the live longshots over the clear favorite. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

More From the Dudes

Part 2 ( Game on Dude) ZAAT: Dude! Hey…glad I found you. Game on Dude: “Oh, hey ZATT, how are ya? I wondered if I'd see you again.” ZAAT: You bet Dude, It is always good to see you. How‘ve you been? Game on Dude: “Ahh, you know. Strikes and splits, ups and downs.” ZATT: I didn’t realize you were a bowler. Game on Dude: “Oh yeah man. I love to roll…In a Tuesday night league and everything. We got a shot at the whole enchilada this year.” ZATT: Nice Dude. I am sure that is fun to get away from the track sometimes. By the way, speaking of the track, congratulations on your Lone Star Derby win. Game on Dude: “Thanks man. Texas was fun; good food. Grass was a little dry though.” ZATT: Too bad about that Texas grass. It looks like you are enjoying the Belmont grass there. First Dude: “New York is, well, I like it man. Lots to look at; got a new lady friend. I think we are going out for some Moo Goo Gai Pan later.” ZATT: Uh...I see, is she a runner as well? Game on Dude: “Not sure ZATT…that’s the difference between you and me. Your mind is always on the races.” ZATT: Well not all the time, but I enjoy my job. My readers want to know your game plan for the Belmont. Game on Dude: “It's a complicated race, man. Lotta ins, lotta outs. Fortunately Bobby has me adhering to a pretty strict, uh, training regimen to keep me, you know, limber.” ZATT: Any specific plan for the race? Game on Dude: “Yeah man.” ZATT: Can you expand on that answer? Game on Dude: “Huh?.” ZATT: Your strategy for the race? Game on Dude: “Yeah…you know, I’m just going to roll it, let it all hang out.” ZATT: Pretty laid back, but I guess that is what you are all about. Game on Dude: “Yeah man.” ZATT: Best of luck in the Belmont, and take it easy, Dude. Game on Dude: “Well, you know, the Dude abides.” Special thanks to Joel and Ethan Coen, whose film The Big Lebowski, was a not so subtle influence on this piece, and were responsible for some of the quotes of both First Dude and Game on Dude.

The Dudes

With the big race only six days away, I have decided to get back to some good old fashioned journalism. To those ends, I hit the backstretch early to obtain inside information from some of the major players in the Test of Champions. Mission accomplished. What follows are two highly informative interviews as a direct result of all my effort. After all nothing is too good for my readers. Part 1 (First Dude) ZAAT: Mr. Dude, thanks so much for… First Dude: “Look, let me explain something. I'm not Mr. Dude. I'm the Dude. So that's what you call me. That, or Duder. His Dudeness. Or El Duderino, if, you know, you're not into the whole brevity thing.” ZAAT: Sorry Dude. First Dude: “That’s OK ZATT. By the way that’s an interesting name…ZATT, what is that Dutch-Hungarian?” ZATT:  Uh…no. Actually it is an acronym for Zipse at… First Dude: “Come on, man, it was just a little joke. Besides, I don’t think my fans care what ZATT stands for.” ZATT: Probably so Dudeness. Anyway…I wanted to ask you about your performance in the Preakness. First Dude: “No big thing man. I just ran.” ZATT:  That is awfully humble of you considering what a great race you ran. I figured that you were trying to pound your competition into dust that day. First Dude:  “ZATT, you can't talk like that, man. These guys are like me, they're pacificists. Smokey was a conscientious objector.” ZATT:  Uh...I see, and…Smokey??? First Dude:  “Smokey. You know…Jackson Bend. He likes to be called Smokey. So that‘s we call him.” ZATT:  Interesting. But back to you; you showed great talent and heart with your close 2nd place finish in the Preakness. Is it that talent and heart that makes you the kind of horse that you are? First Dude: “Sure. That and a pair of testicles.” ZATT:  Wow, that is more information than I was expecting, but thank you for your candor. One more quick question… First Dude:  “Good, starting to get a little hungry here.” ZATT:  What is your prediction for the Belmont? First Dude:  “My prediction? Well like Woody said, look for the horse who will benefit. And you will, uh, you know, you'll, uh, you know what I'm trying to say…” Part 2 (Game On Dude) will be published on Tuesday. Special thanks to Joel and Ethan Coen, whose film The Big Lebowski, was a not so subtle influence on this piece, and were responsible for some of the quotes of both First Dude and Game on Dude.

Belmont Stakes Blues

No Triple Crown this year. So what. We have not had a sweep in 32 years, and I am used to living without one, and now we do not have to worry about being disappointed by the Derby and Preakness winner going down in New York. The Triple Crown should be reserved for the crème de la crème. If we do not have that this year, than so be it, there should be no Triple Crown winner. Personally, I am not going to cry about it, nor am I going to talk about the Belmont as less of a race because there is no opportunity for a Crown winner. The Belmont is still the Belmont, which is one of the most important races in our nation. This year’s edition will be sans a Derby or Preakness winner, which will guarantee a trio of classic winners in 2010. That could make things very interesting later in the year, say in the Travers, with the three winners hooking up. Without a standout, the Belmont promises to be a very interesting race from both a competitive standpoint as well as a wagering opportunity. I know I am already looking forward to betting against the favorite. Here is a list of horses currently looking at the Belmont Stakes, with my earliest of morning lines: Ice Box   2-1 Fly Down   4-1 First Dude   6-1 Dublin   10-1 Make Music For Me   12-1 Devil May Care   15-1 Uptowncharlybrown   15-1 Game On Dude   15-1 Drosselmeyer   20-1 Stately Victor   20-1 Stay Put   20-1 Setsuko   20-1 New Madrid   20-1 Superstars and world beaters? No, but doesn’t this still look like a pretty interesting race? I will be looking forward to the Belmont Stakes as usual, plus the fabulous card that Belmont puts together for the day. If you want to sing your Belmont Stakes Blues, do it someplace else. ZATT is all in!