April 30, 2010

Oaks Day Doings

First thing first, Blind Luck may not be the most talented filly in the world, but she is a champion through and through. I was thoroughly impressed with her from-dead-last rally, and here’s why: The pace was quite moderate, it would have been so much easier for Blind Luck to uncork her patented rally with a brisk pace. She has rallied before, but circling a full field of 14 was a whole new ball game. She passed this new test with flying colors. Finally, the filly she nipped at the wire, Evening Jewel, is obviously very good, underrated, and most importantly, she was absolutely full of run in the stretch. Only a gritty champion like Blind Luck could have beat her today. Blind Luck is a champion, and it will take a Devil May Care upset win in the Derby to steal one bit of her sophomore filly thunder.



Now for the less happy news. Rachel Alexandra lost. Again. Rachel Alexandra ran the greatest race I have ever seen a filly run in last year’s Haskell runaway. Since then, things have been anything but easy. Three races and three doggedly tough photo finishes. The first she won, in the Woodward, and the last two she has been defeated. The two losses this year were good races by normal horse’s standards, but Rachel Alexandra is no normal horse. Clearly Rachel is not, to this point at least, the same Rachel we grew to love in 2009. It is not uncommon for fillies to regress after time away from the races. Filly winners of the Kentucky Derby illustrate this phenomenon. Genuine Risk only ran in allowance company as an older filly, winning two of three, and Winning Colors, finished out of the money in five out of her seven starts at four years of age. It is still too early to tell what this means for Rachel’s future, but I will never see her as anything but the champion that she is. Do not give up on her yet.

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Derby tease (more to come tomorrow.) The Kentucky Derby will be won by one of these five: Awesome Act, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Super Saver, or Devil May Care.

4 comments:

LDP said...

Blind Luck was spectacular. I love that not only did she rally in the stretch, but made a huge middle move and was able to sustain that explosive run for so long.

RA, I really hope, gets back to where she was last year. Maybe she has regressed, maybe she's running the same way she did last year, but she's just up against better. I'm hoping it's the latter, since that would mean in another race or two the RA we know will be manhandling all those who oppose her. I haven't given up yet, but I am missing the RA I knew from last year.

Brian Zipse said...

Dani,

A half mile rally is always impressive, kudos to Blind Luck (the one who should have been juvenile filly champ.)

Rachel will be back...and she is DEFINITELY not where she was last year.

mvlach77 said...

Brian
I'm not sure but I heard that Rachel ran a 106 Beyer. I wonder if she's running into unusual performances as she's still trying to gain her old form. It may not be as bad as it looks.

ja.raymond said...

Blind Luck was SO incredibly awesome yesterday!! She just kept diggin' & diggin' & diggin' it!!And Jewel just kept forcing her!Neither would give way for all the sweetfeed in the world!!
Both girls were just spectacular to watch!!
I really look forward to their next meeting!! :)
Rachel, on the other hand, NEEDS to get out from Asmussen's shed, now! I dont think I could stand to watch that poor girl lose another one.