Kentucky Derby |
April 20, 2010
My Morning Lines - Derby & Oaks 4/20
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About Me
- Brian Zipse
- I've been going to the races and following the horses since before I can honestly remember. For example, my best recollection of being in the stands for Secretariat's amazing run in the Belmont was not the race, but the stands shaking so much beneath my feet. Quite an experience for a little guy who just turned 4! Two of my favorite fellow handicappers are my brother and my father. My one year old daughter is already showing signs of loving the horses :>) My favorites...how about Wajima, Spectacular Bid, Fancy Naskra, Five Star Flight, Christmas Past, Princess Rooney, Lady's Secret, With Approval, Paradise Creek, Sunday Silence, Unbridled, Skip Away, Free House. Musket Man and Rachel Alexandra, just to name a few.
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18 comments:
Do you think 85ina50 will get in? IF he wins the Derby Trail & then run him back in a week??? I know they used to do that all the time -I hope he gets in. Like your ML odds, but like my future wager odds better :-)
I do Kim. I like his chances to win the Derby Trial, and then his connections seem to want to go for the Derby. Who do you have in the future wager? I am liking my Devil may Care at 21-1 ticket.
In my future wagers (only Pool #2)
Esky @ 5-1
Sidney @ 33-1
American Lion @ 38-1
Super Saver @ 24-1
Thats all that I can remember off the top of my head, that I KNOW I played.I have my hi-lited list at home. I played 17 horses. Odysseus is out & think a couple others may not get in.
Eightyfiveinafifty wasn't in pool #2 (dang it!!)
I love that horse - he's still so green though -
Good luck Kim! Super Saver at 24-1 is nice, I used him in a bunch of Future exactas...if he can get in the exacta, I should be happy.
like dublin at 20-1 kinda was hoping icebox could get higher odds but well see.
I think both Ice Box and Dublin will get some play, more so than they might have gotten if not for their respective trainers.
Esky at 40/1 in the UK market here and Lucky at 12/1 :) Oh how I hope one of those win!
Good luck to you too Brian. I will bring my list in tomorrow- I bet from TVG & Xpress bet & am too lazy, I mean BUSY to print them out...perhaps later...
When or where can we talk about track bias & BSF's.
Can you tell I'm pissed that Sidney only got a 100 while running a full second - almost 2 seconds faster than Esky did & he got a 109??????
Thanks Kim, and to you! We'll talk Beyers more another day.
Wow Dan! When did you get Esken at 40-1?
About a week before the Fountain of Youth! Very very lucky.... I only bet him on the back of his Belmont win last year. If I remembered his Breeders Cup performance I wouldnt have bothered :-D
I can't remember all my future wagers from the first pool I did on youbet. I know I had L@L and Dublin and American Lion. I like your lines Brian. For monetary and sentimental reasons both, I want American Lion to win, just so I can say I picked him long ago as my early pick. Part of what I love about the Derby is the crazy unpredictability of it. It's the biggest field these horses more than likely will ever see, the biggest crowd and reaching out to a distance they have never been. Makes it the most challenging race to handicap in my opinion. I like Endorsement at 12/1 and think he will go off somewhere between 8-12/1 with a great shot. Same for Super Saver. They will be my value bets of horses that I think actually have a shot.
YOU ARE GENEROUS,I SEE SID FLYING @MAYBE7-2 OR 4-1 ON RACEDAY......BUT THEN THATS ME AND HOW HIGHLY I THINK AND LIKE THE CANDY....BUT NOT ONLY THAT TIME,SPEED,PACE FIGURES ALL POINT IN HIS DIRECTION..... I KNOW FOR A FACT THAT HE IS GONNA GET BET A LOT
I hope Awesome Act stays that high - the more I look at him, the more I like him.
Brian;
I've been looking at the pedigrees of the contenders...Super Saver really has some major influences, including La Troienne and Numbered account. Do you put much stock in this?
Chicago Guy, I do. While breeding does not run the race, I always like to see strong breeding when handicapping the Derby. There are exceptions to the rule, but more often than not, you can see which horses are more or less likely to handle 10 furlongs the first Saturday in May...I like Super Saver's breeding very much. ;)
okay Brian - brought my list in of my future wagers and the horses that are still in: (alphabetical)
American Lion 38-1
Conveyance 28-1
Discreetly Mine 37-1
Dublin 10-1
Jackson Bend 47-1
Nobles Promise 26-1
Sidney's Candy 33-1
OOPS! forgot Super Saver @ 24-1
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