Mission Impazible No Longer for Todd?

As I slowly drifted into a Derby Eve slumber, one name kept rolling through my mind. Surprisingly it was not my top pick, Awesome Act. Nor was it the horse to beat, Lookin at Lucky, or the Girl Power entrant, Devil May Care. It wasn’t even Calvin Borel’s strong entry, Super Saver. Rather my brain was stuck on one name…Mission Impazible. Interesting. What does it all mean? As only a minor believer in the value of hunches or premonitions, I greet this bedtime revelation with skeptical optimism. The good news is that Mission Impazible was already one of my Fab Five, and even better he is clearly the longest shot of the bunch. I have him in several live tickets in Derby Future Exactas, and Oaks-Derby Doubles, so a Mission Impazible victory would be a nice collect. As you may have guessed, the other four members of my Fab Five are the same four mentioned at the beginning of this piece, and I believe the horse that becomes the 136th champion of the Kentucky Derby will be one the five. With the expected fast pace materializing, I see this as a race that will be very hard for any speed horse to win. Benefiting from the tiring leaders should be the English invader Awesome Act. The son of Awesome Again is well suited to appreciate the grueling late stages of the Kentucky Derby, and his explosive turn of foot should give him every chance as the horse turn for home. Broodmare sire Mr. Prospector, also gives Awesome Act a great chance to thrive on an off track. I expect him to redeem himself for a poor Wood Memorial, where everything went wrong, and premonition or not, he is still my top pick. Lookin at Lucky is hard to ignore. He is bred for the trip, is the juvenile champion, and he is consistent as they come. If not for bad racing luck, Lucky could have an even better record than the excellent 8-6-1-1 that he has compiled. Drawing the 1 post did him no favors, and an off track could compromise his chances, but it should come as no surprise to anyone to see the Bob Baffert trained champion end up in the winner’s circle.  Mission Impazible is a bit of a wildcard, but one with much to like. The son of the mercurial sire Unbridled’s Song has a racing pattern that I like to see in the Derby. He displayed a ton of talent early in his juvenile season and then was put on the shelf with minor physical problems. In his three races this year, he has shown steady improvement culminating with a win in the Louisiana Derby. He is working well, and has solid wet track experience. All in all he is a very attractive longshot. Devil May Care is another who is a bit of unknown. You never know for sure if the filly will be good enough to handle the boys, but clearly recent history is in her corner. Like Mission Impazible, she should get a favorable position in the middle of the pack. She has displayed clear signs of being a good one with wins in the Frizette and Bonnie Miss, and possibly as much as anyone in the field, may have the ability to still improve a great deal. She won her last race nicely, despite running greenly, and Pletcher has always said that she will relish a distance. Rounding out my Fab Five is Super Saver. The only speed horse I have selected, Super Saver has the advantage of excellent experience over both a sloppy track and over the Churchill Downs strip. He has two solid preps under his belt and should be ready to fire his best shot. The pace scenario does worry me a little, but there is no one I would rather have in the irons on Derby Day than Calvin Borel. Super Saver looks the part and is bred to be a Derby winner. At this time it looks like he may be vying for favoritism, but he has too many positives to overlook even if he is a little overbet. Happy Derby Day everyone. Win, lose, or draw, I hope you all enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports all day long.

Oaks Day Doings

First thing first, Blind Luck may not be the most talented filly in the world, but she is a champion through and through. I was thoroughly impressed with her from-dead-last rally, and here’s why: The pace was quite moderate, it would have been so much easier for Blind Luck to uncork her patented rally with a brisk pace. She has rallied before, but circling a full field of 14 was a whole new ball game. She passed this new test with flying colors. Finally, the filly she nipped at the wire, Evening Jewel, is obviously very good, underrated, and most importantly, she was absolutely full of run in the stretch. Only a gritty champion like Blind Luck could have beat her today. Blind Luck is a champion, and it will take a Devil May Care upset win in the Derby to steal one bit of her sophomore filly thunder. Now for the less happy news. Rachel Alexandra lost. Again. Rachel Alexandra ran the greatest race I have ever seen a filly run in last year’s Haskell runaway. Since then, things have been anything but easy. Three races and three doggedly tough photo finishes. The first she won, in the Woodward, and the last two she has been defeated. The two losses this year were good races by normal horse’s standards, but Rachel Alexandra is no normal horse. Clearly Rachel is not, to this point at least, the same Rachel we grew to love in 2009. It is not uncommon for fillies to regress after time away from the races. Filly winners of the Kentucky Derby illustrate this phenomenon. Genuine Risk only ran in allowance company as an older filly, winning two of three, and Winning Colors, finished out of the money in five out of her seven starts at four years of age. It is still too early to tell what this means for Rachel’s future, but I will never see her as anything but the champion that she is. Do not give up on her yet. And now for another shameless plug…ZATT the Magazine has launched!!! It’s official, my dream is a reality. Please join me at http://www.zattmag.com/. Derby tease (more to come tomorrow.) The Kentucky Derby will be won by one of these five: Awesome Act, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Super Saver, or Devil May Care.

Todd Pletcher - The Definition of Due

Todd Pletcher has clearly been the man so far this year on the Kentucky Derby trail. Pletcher’s horses have won this year’s Wood Memorial, Louisiana Derby, Fountain of Youth, Sam F. Davis Stakes and Risen Star Stakes. So dominant is Pletcher, that it is almost hard to imagine a big Derby prep without at least one of his runners in the mix. In this week’s prestigious Blue Grass, he will have two of the favorites in Aikenite and Interactif. In the Arkansas Derby, he has another of the top choices in Super Saver. The Pletcher prep wins are likely to continue. This winning streak is nothing new for the 42 year old conditioner. Pletcher has won four Eclipse Awards as the nation's outstanding trainer. He has led the national standings in earnings four times, and in 2007, he set a record when his stable earned more than $28 million. But despite of all of these personal achievements, his career is incomplete. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here