September 23, 2010

If You Could Pick One Horse …

If you could pick one horse as the most likely to win on Breeders’ Cup weekend, who would it be? The obvious choices that come to mind may be Goldikova or Zenyatta, and seeing how each great mare has won in two consecutive Breeders’ Cups, it would be hard to argue with either. They do have obstacles however, in the form of the two deepest fields of the weekend. The defending Classic winner, Zenyatta, will be facing the best males in the world, and this year she will have to ship in to face them on their surface. Her greatest challenge may come from Blame, who has proven to love the Churchill strip. He is also unbeaten this year and still improving, making him a formidable road block to Zenyatta’s quest for a perfect 20. Meanwhile, Goldikova will no doubt be heavily favored to achieve an unprecedented third consecutive BC Mile victory. Coming off a loss in her latest, Goldikova is an international superstar, but things could be much tougher this time around. Top to bottom the Mile looks like the deepest field, with tigers like, Gio Ponti, Makfi, Court Vision, Sidney’s Candy, and Paco Boy, just to name a few, ready to challenge her supremacy.

Last year’s Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra is the likely favorite for the Ladies’ Classic, but sophomore Blind Luck is in the midst of a sparkling season, and should give the 2010 version of Rachel a true test. Paddy O’Prado has become the now horse on American turf, but let’s face it, 12 furlongs on the grass is clearly the Europeans race to lose, whomever their top candidate may be. Discreetly Mine has been the sprinter I have been on all Summer, but the sprint is almost always a race that proves to be a wide open slugfest, rather than a spot for an easily selected winner. Possibly Boys at Tosconova in the Juvenile, or Tell a Kelly in the Juvenile Fillies, have already impressed enough where you think they will roll to victory in the Breeders’ Cup. Maybe, as these are races where the favorites are usually factors, but I would say it is too early to count on such inexperienced youngsters as singles a month and a half out.

So where does that leave us? Are there any sure things this year? No sure things, and frankly that is one of the many reasons why I love this game, but there is one horse that stands out in her respective field. A filly who won at the Breeders’ Cup last year, and has improved with age to become a much better horse this year.  Her name is Midday, and I consider her the horse to beat in the BC Filly & Mare Turf by a long way.  Eleven furlongs is a perfect trip for her and Midday is currently on a group 1 roll in Europe. The Breeders’ Cup has been the race her connections have pointed her for since the beginning of her campaign. Unfortunately, some of her toughest competition like Dar Re Mi, Sariska, and the ill-fated Tuscan Evening, will not be at Churchill Downs, making her an even greater threat.  That’s my opinion for the most likely winner at least, I want to know what you think. Who is the one horse you think is most likely to win at the Breeders’ Cup?

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Zenyatta will run them off their feet!

D. O. said...

Blind Luck!

The Queen said...

Dirt is MY GAME..be ready to be amazed again...

NJDerek said...

Tell a Kelly. She's a freak.

Oh, and Blame...damn, that's two.

Nicholas said...

Goldi

Brian Zipse said...

Well it is good to see that you all agree with me! LOL ... and Derek you broke the rules!

tencentcielo said...

(steps way outside box)

Etched in the BC Dirt Mile

(steps back in box, hugs Blame and & Life At Ten, nods in agreement)

Brian Zipse said...

Etched is so far outside, he needs binoculars just to see the box! I admire your cojones for that selection!

MH said...

I was 100% confident Zenyatta would win the Classic last year, and I have no reason to feel any less confident this year, now that she's won it before. She's even better on dirt.

Andrew said...

Zenyatta!

Her only concern is running out of room as she always hits top gear and the stretch at Churchill is very long.

Silent Sunday said...

As much as I want to say Goldikova...it's CD in November...very likely chance there could be very soft ground,hell it could be snowing! We know she doesn't run her best on soft going, and she will need her best against the deepest race in the BC, so with that said...I have to agree with you that Midday may be the closest to a lock you can get.

Charlie said...

Uncle Mo.....By Indian Charlie out of an Arch mare then a Dixieland Band mare........GREAT pedigree! If he can stay sound and healthy......LOOK out!

Brian Appleton said...

I'd have to say Blind Luck the way the fields are shaping up and Goldikova/Zenyatta a joint second!

LDP said...

There is not a lot of slam dunks this year. Sprint is pretty open, though I would put Discreetly Mine and Big Drama on top. The turf, Paddy should makes things interesting against the Euros. The Mile is wide open. Americans this year are looking pretty formidable and hopefully can stand up to the Euros.

The Ladies is again competitive BL, RA, DMC, LAT, MP, UB, EJ..it's packed. The Dirt Mile depends on the leftovers from the Classic and the Sprint. Not that that is a bad thing, we have some very good horses that can't quite get 10 furlongs and need more time to get going than 6. A couple nice ones could be Duke of Mischeif and Gone Astray.

The Classic may just be the actual icing on the cake. QR, Zen, Blame, LAL and a few other exciting 3yr olds all in the same race will be fun to watch.

markinsac said...

I hate to say this Brian, Rachel will not go off favorite in the Ladies Classic. If Blind Luck is in, she has earned the role of favorite. Rachel may go off second or third choice. As to your question, here's a prediciton: Many so-called top handicappers will "throw out" Zenyatta much like they did last year. Then after Zenyatta wins, they will congratulate her and say, she still wasn't worth 9/5, why i could get that on some pacer at the Meadowlands (even though the pacer never won 19 in a row). If Zenyatta loses in the Classic, you will hear a huge roar from the east coast saying, "She's no good, i'm telling you . . ." Fortunately, the pool at Churchill will be comingled, meaning east-coast money will help Zenyatta pay nearly 2-1! The most likely winner is Zenyatta. And thank you east coast!