If You Could Pick One Horse …

If you could pick one horse as the most likely to win on Breeders’ Cup weekend, who would it be? The obvious choices that come to mind may be Goldikova or Zenyatta, and seeing how each great mare has won in two consecutive Breeders’ Cups, it would be hard to argue with either. They do have obstacles however, in the form of the two deepest fields of the weekend. The defending Classic winner, Zenyatta, will be facing the best males in the world, and this year she will have to ship in to face them on their surface. Her greatest challenge may come from Blame, who has proven to love the Churchill strip. He is also unbeaten this year and still improving, making him a formidable road block to Zenyatta’s quest for a perfect 20. Meanwhile, Goldikova will no doubt be heavily favored to achieve an unprecedented third consecutive BC Mile victory. Coming off a loss in her latest, Goldikova is an international superstar, but things could be much tougher this time around. Top to bottom the Mile looks like the deepest field, with tigers like, Gio Ponti, Makfi, Court Vision, Sidney’s Candy, and Paco Boy, just to name a few, ready to challenge her supremacy. Last year’s Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra is the likely favorite for the Ladies’ Classic, but sophomore Blind Luck is in the midst of a sparkling season, and should give the 2010 version of Rachel a true test. Paddy O’Prado has become the now horse on American turf, but let’s face it, 12 furlongs on the grass is clearly the Europeans race to lose, whomever their top candidate may be. Discreetly Mine has been the sprinter I have been on all Summer, but the sprint is almost always a race that proves to be a wide open slugfest, rather than a spot for an easily selected winner. Possibly Boys at Tosconova in the Juvenile, or Tell a Kelly in the Juvenile Fillies, have already impressed enough where you think they will roll to victory in the Breeders’ Cup. Maybe, as these are races where the favorites are usually factors, but I would say it is too early to count on such inexperienced youngsters as singles a month and a half out. So where does that leave us? Are there any sure things this year? No sure things, and frankly that is one of the many reasons why I love this game, but there is one horse that stands out in her respective field. A filly who won at the Breeders’ Cup last year, and has improved with age to become a much better horse this year.  Her name is Midday, and I consider her the horse to beat in the BC Filly & Mare Turf by a long way.  Eleven furlongs is a perfect trip for her and Midday is currently on a group 1 roll in Europe. The Breeders’ Cup has been the race her connections have pointed her for since the beginning of her campaign. Unfortunately, some of her toughest competition like Dar Re Mi, Sariska, and the ill-fated Tuscan Evening, will not be at Churchill Downs, making her an even greater threat.  That’s my opinion for the most likely winner at least, I want to know what you think. Who is the one horse you think is most likely to win at the Breeders’ Cup?