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September 7, 2010
The Breeders’ Cup - Early Top Fives
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About Me
- Brian Zipse
- I've been going to the races and following the horses since before I can honestly remember. For example, my best recollection of being in the stands for Secretariat's amazing run in the Belmont was not the race, but the stands shaking so much beneath my feet. Quite an experience for a little guy who just turned 4! Two of my favorite fellow handicappers are my brother and my father. My one year old daughter is already showing signs of loving the horses :>) My favorites...how about Wajima, Spectacular Bid, Fancy Naskra, Five Star Flight, Christmas Past, Princess Rooney, Lady's Secret, With Approval, Paradise Creek, Sunday Silence, Unbridled, Skip Away, Free House. Musket Man and Rachel Alexandra, just to name a few.
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22 comments:
Cape Blanco and Paddy in the Turf for me. I sense F&G may not travel.....gut feeling.
By the way.....my 'contact' tells me it may be worth watching the opening maiden race at Doncaster on Thursday. I sense Nathaniel, a John Gosden colt by Galileo, may be about to put in a special performance en route to the Cup!
Bummer...
I kind of wonder if Mona De Momma will make it back from her injury, since she still has not gotten back on the worktab. Is Sweet August Moon the 1st alternate?
and how do you leave off Life At Ten out of the Ladies Classic? Please explain.
Nice picks. Why Stay Thirsty over Boys though? Do you think Boys may not like the extra distance as much as Stay Thirsty?
On Sara Louise, I love her, but I haven't seen her in any races really recently. Is she being pointed towards anything?
I like Position Limit best right now. Two good starts in a row, one against some highly regarded other fillies.
I love Crown of Thorns and will be rooting for him. Discreetly and BD will be fun to watch too.
I think it will be fun to see if Goldi can gun down SC at a mile, especially if he proves his last wasn't a fluke in his next.
In the Turf I hope Paddy or Gio can bring it home for America. I'm tired of Euros taking over our races.
I know the LC is the most likely start for RA, but I hope they give her another shot in the Classic. However, if she does race in the LC, I don't think she is beat at 9 furlongs. She duel w/ LAT and still would've held off Persistantly had the race been that distance or even 9.5 furlongs.
Blame should be favorite for the Classic w/ QR right behind him. Zenyatta should be in there, but I would have her behind LAL. TC, if he were to win the Goodwood would have to be given a serious look. Talent like that can't be overlooked.
A maiden race to the Breeders' Cup??? Dan Munn, are you joking? Sorry Anonymous. Do not count out Momma yet. I can't see Life putting away Rachel and holding off all the good sophomores. Sara will be back soon. Kelly looked too good this weekend to put her anywhere but #1...
I like that you have Blame on the top spot in the classic. I think L@L should be in the #2 spot though. No way QR gets 10f IMO.
Btw, I believe Vineyard Haven is pointing toward the Dirt Mile instead of the sprint.
Some confirmation for my selections so far. As much as I hate to take a US horse for the turf if it rides fast not sure what Paddy may end up having to beat.
A O'B's runners often seem obsessed with a lottery ticket in the Classic and rarely laid out. Paddy O for me.
I think Stay Thirsty (My Friends) gets the distance, I have my concerns for Boys. No way Quality gets 10f? Hmmm. We shall see. I know Vineyard is under consideration for both the Sprint and the Dirt Mile, I hope they choose the 6f.
Brian,
I'm not contradicting you just pointing out little facts. Stay Thirsty does have a pedigree more obviously geared towards distance. However, Boy's sire Officer does as well, it just doesn't seem to show up in him or any of his offspring. Now, if you look at Boy's dam side you see stamina there too, which is personally where I like to see stamina. Perhaps, that stamina, may bring out the stamina infulences Officer never seems to pass on.
Like you said LDP, Officer has not sired distance horses. His female side has some distance influences, but it does not scream staying power. 1 1/16 should be within his realm, and that is why I have him #2, but 1 1/4 could well be too far him. Of course great horses have been known to outrun their pedigree. So far he looks awfully good.
Agree with most of these, but Wasted Tears and Proviso are noticeably absent. If he goes the sprint route, I think Crown of Thorns is very live - moreso than the Dirt Mile route.
Great list Brian...let the countdown begin!
Remember Derek, this is based only on who I believe most likely to win a specific race, while Proviso and Wasted Tears have had great years they do not crack my Top 5's.
Brian,
You are way off for the Classic. The latest odds are for Zenyatta at number one. I suppose that the east coast bias of sportswriters will again insist that some other horse than Zenyatta will win the Classic. Last year I believed them and didn't bet on her. Well, I don't think any of you are any smarter than last year.
Not at all, Bri. I was saying that Nathaniel will be putting in a special performance tomorrow en route to the Cup (i.e. first stop maiden then the normal token entry in the 2yo colts G1 on Arc day and then onto the Breeders Cup just like Pounced last year).
Watch out for him tomorrow
Not East Coast Anonymous, Midwest. Is there a Midwest bias? LOL. By the way, In East Coast - West Coast debates, more often than not I have sided with the Western horses. Right now, I like Blame best, Quality Road 2nd, Zenyatta 3rd, and so on for this year's Classic no matter what the future odds are.
I'll be watching, thanks Dan.
So if Zenyatta wins the BCC will you stay off Twitter for a month?
The best thing about being a racing "journalist" it that you can be totally wrong and not suffer any negative consequences.
Phil
LOL! Now why would I do a silly thing like that?
Phil, Isn't that what they say about Weatherpeople? We are all wrong more than half the time in this game. Anyone who tells you different is ... well, wrong.
like the lists...uncle mo looked mighty impressive, if he runs back to that watch out.....hmmmmm zenyatta still not getting the respect she deserves....ill be looking for the updates soon
Stay Thirsty is a ballsy pick. You should try to bet him now. BIG price.
Warrior's Reward - another big price.
Here Comes Ben might be more effective in the Dirt Mile. Or not.
Mandella has always LOVED Crown of Thorns
Good work
Oh I respect her a great deal ... She is just not my top pick. Thanks Ernie ... can't pick all the favs.
Zipse, you are SO BIASED, I laugh at your "PREDICTIONS!" It's not hard to believe you'd have your "WONDER HORSE" Rachel on top of the Ladies Classic, and have the horse you continually ignore, Zenyatta, picked 3rd in the Classic. DO YOU HAVE ANY JOURNALICTIC CREDIBILITY LEFT? See you at Churchill, and try not to litter the floor too much~!
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