Blue Grass to Derby, Still a Viable Route?

Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes has long been one of the most prestigious of all roads leading to the Kentucky Derby. Year in an year out, it produced, if not the Derby winner itself, then at the very least, some strong contenders for the blanket of roses. Something has changed though. No longer do I see the Blue Grass as one of the most important preps, or one of the most likely places for a Derby winner to emerge. What changed? In the Fall of 2006, Keeneland went Polytrack. They decided to take out their dirt surface, after seventy years, and replace it with a synthetic surface. It was called a “safer solution.” Whether it is safer or not, is open for debate, but it is not the topic of the day. Now that the Blue Grass is on Polytrack and three weeks before the Derby, it is the final prep for any horse hoping to run in both the Blue Grass and the Kentucky Derby. It would be unheard of, to squeeze in a race between the two, in this age of lighter schedules for our stars. Because of this, the Blue Grass is becoming a less desirable destination for many of the top contenders, as many do not want to run so close to the Derby, especially if it is on a synthetic surface which is so different than that of Churchill Downs. This situation saddens me. In my mind the Blue Grass should be the preeminent prep. There is no place better to be in the Spring than Keeneland. The weather, the facility, the people, and the surroundings…it truly is a slice of Heaven here on earth. Keeneland has an almost mystical appeal to fans of the horse, and I am no different, and the Blue Grass is, at least in my estimation, the grandest day at the Lexington oval. Maybe I am just a bit nostalgic, but when I first became a regular at Keeneland, I saw horses like Summer Squall defeating Unbridled, and heavy hitters Strike the Gold, Prairie Bayou, and Holy Bull, all winning in the Blue Grass. Those times may be lost. With all due respect to the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita, and Arkansas Derbies, the Blue Grass holds the most special place in my heart of all Derby preps. I do not know how much longer I will be saying this though. Since the transition to Polytrack, the winner of the Blue Grass has finished 11th, 20th, and 10th in the Derby. In a word dismal. Success in the Blue Grass is no longer a strong recommendation for your chances in the Derby. To be fair, Street Sense did run in the Blue Grass before winning the 2007 Derby, although by losing in Lexington to an inferior field, and then winning in Louisville, Street Sense pointed out the vast difference in the two tracks. Why would horsemen want to run on a surface so different only three weeks before the biggest race of their lives? I honestly do not know. Despite my sadness in the relative importance of this great race, I am rather upbeat with this year’s edition. There are several horses in the race, who I think have a chance to make some noise at Churchill. Most notably Odysseus and Interactif, whom I definitely both include in my top ten Derby candidates. But still, even with a good field running tomorrow, I have to wonder if the result will mean absolutely anything on the First Saturday in May. Probably not. Maybe they should just run the Blue Grass at Churchill Downs. Ouch! I just bit my tongue. Polytrack Up Close

Who Am I ???

*My career began in state bred races, in fact almost half of my career starts were in restricted races. *Yes, I ran on the First Saturday in May, but unfortunately, I did not win. *Undefeated as a juvenile, my largest margin of victory came in my first career start. *In my only career grade 1 stakes win, I defeated two Eclipse Award winners. *Throughout my entire career, I proved to be quite popular with the bettors. *My father won four grade 1 stakes, and my daughter won five. *My trainer and jockey were both victorious in the Kentucky Derby and are in the Hall of Fame. *I finished 3rd in my final race, which ended a four race winning streak. *My broodmare sire was also a Kentucky Derby loser, eleven years before me. *My conditioner won the Kentucky Derby the year before I tried for him. *If you want my honest opinion, I think Mr. Musselman is both genius and entertaining. You should know by now … Who Am I ???

Will You Back the Derby Favorite?

Welcome to Zipse at the Track's Two Dozen Days of Derby.  Each and every day for the next twenty four, you will find Derby, Derby, and more Derby here on ZATT.  So please, if you want to dicuss politics or religion, you are in the wrong place.  I have Kentucky Derby Fever, and I hope you do too.  So when you visit these pages, be prepared for nothing but Talking Derby.  Today, we will discuss the merits of recent Derby favoritism.  The results may surprise you. If Eskendereya enters the 2010 Kentucky Derby starting gate, he will undoubtedly be the top choice by bettors. He assured this with his recent romp in the Wood Memorial. An enviable position, to be the Kentucky Derby favorite, right? Maybe, but maybe not. Let’s take a look at the performance of the favorites in the last 30 years: Year   Favorite                      Odds    Finish 2009   Friesan Fire                        3.80-1     18th 2008   Big Brown                          2.40-1     1st 2007   Street Sense                       4.90-1     1st 2006   Sweetnorthernsaint             5.50-1     7th 2005   Bellamy Road                     2.60-1     7th 2004   Smarty Jones                      4.10-1     1st 2003   Empire Maker                    2.50-1     2nd 2002   Harlan's Holiday                 6.00-1     7th 2001   Point Given                        1.80-1     5th 2000   Fusaichi Pegasus                2.30-1     1st 1999   General Challenge (entry)   4.80-1     11th 1998   Indian Charlie                     2.70-1     3rd 1997   Captain Bodgit                   3.10-1     2nd 1996   Unbridled's Song                3.50-1     5th 1995   Timber Country (entry)       3.40-1     3rd 1994   Holy Bull                            2.20-1     12th 1993   Prairie Bayou                     4.40-1     2nd 1992   Arazi                                    .90-1     8th 1991   Hansel                                2.50-1     10th 1990   Mister Frisky                      1.90-1     8th 1989   Easy Goer (entry)                 .80-1     2nd 1988   Private Terms                      3.40-1     9th 1987   Demons Begone                  2.20-1     DNF 1986   Snow Chief                         2.10-1     11th 1985   Chief's Crown                     1.20-1     3rd 1984   Althea (entry)                      2.80-1     19th 1983   Marfa (entry)                       2.40-1     5th 1982   Air Forbes Won                  2.70-1     7th 1981   Proud Appeal (entry)           2.30-1     18th 1980   Rockhill Native                    2.10-1     5th A closer look at these results reveal that a total of four favorites have won the Kentucky Derby in the past three decades, a winning percentage of only 13.3%. The average finish for the favorite in this time period is a very surprising 7th place. As you can tell, being the favorite means very little when the race begins. Looking at the winners over these thirty years, we see 13 horses who had double digit odds, and six of them had odds of over 20-1. What does this all mean for this year's favorite, Eskendereya? Nothing, he will not be aware of his own odds. But if you think that it is a foregone conclusion that we will see Eskendereya in the winner's circle, history has taught us that you may be in for a rude awakening.

Remembering ... Personal Ensign

“The Derby winner is loose on the lead!” The words echoed in my ears, as the great Phipps filly spun her wheels on the messy Churchill Downs’ dirt course. Everything was on the line for Personal Ensign that damp afternoon. A win would ensure her place among the all-time greats of racing history, as she would become the first major American horse to go undefeated since the legendary Colin, some eighty years before. A loss would drop her legacy down a notch, still a special horse, but not with the immortality of a perfect record. “The Derby winner is loose on the lead!” I kept hearing those words, mainly because my partner, that day, my father, kept saying them playfully after announcer Tom Durkin had said them early in the race. At the eighth pole, it still appeared hopeless as we stared at the TV monitors at the Meadowlands.  Four lengths behind Winning Colors, who was running her best race since winning the Derby half a year earlier, her task appeared too great. “The Derby winner is loose on the lead!” But Personal Ensign was no ordinary horse. With dogged determination she kicked into another gear. She was the only one who did not know how to lose. Rider Randy Romero kept asking for more and the great filly kept giving more. She ignored the nasty weather and track conditions and reeled in the Derby winner, who was loose on the lead. In the most thrilling finish in the history of the Breeders‘ Cup, Personal Ensign stuck her nose in front of Winning Colors in the final stride. It was a case of a true champion acting like only a true champion could. She retired perfect. Immortality was hers. Personal Ensign was foaled and raised at Claiborne Farm in Lexington, Kentucky. A dark bay daughter of Private Account out of the Hoist the Flag mare, Grecian Banner, Personal Ensign was bred in Kentucky by her owner, by legendary owner, Ogden Phipps. She was one of the greatest ever to carry the famous black silks and cherry cap of the Phipps family. She arrived on the racing scene in 1986, and began her career winning two races as a juvenile. Her maiden win was so impressive, winning by 13 lengths, that only two others challenged her in the prestigious Frizette Stakes. Sent off at odds on, she displayed her true grit by wearing down an excellent Majestic Light filly named Collins, by a head. Two starts and already a grade 1 winner, Personal Ensign was destined for greatness. Unfortunately she broke her left hind leg in two places while preparing for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Five screws were inserted to aid in healing and to keep the bone together. This was not the end of her career, though, far from it. The star returned to the races eleven months later, rattling off four consecutive wins against top competition in New York. Despite nearly a year away, and a major injury, Personal Ensign was absolutely dominant in two allowance races at Belmont, before winning the Rare Perfume Stakes and the Grade 1 Beldame Stakes, all with almost shocking ease. Her trainer Shug McGaughey, felt a trip to Hollywood Park for the 1987 Breeders' Cup Distaff would be too much to ask of her in too short a time period, so she was put away for the season, still unbeaten after six career starts. If her first two seasons were slightly unfulfilled because of the injury, 1988 would be her opportunity to accomplish everything. After winning two stakes easily at Belmont Park, the perfect filly made her first trip outside of New York. Watching that day at Monmouth Park, I remember wondering if the really nice Jersey filly Grecian Flight could give her a race. She could not. Seeing Personal Ensign in person at four was like seeing pure power in the form of a beautiful thoroughbred horse. She won the Molly Pitcher Stakes by eight lengths, and to this day I consider it one of the more impressive wins I have ever seen in person. Next came the males in the Whitney, and another easy win. Number ten. She dropped down to mile and powered by Winning Colors in the Maskette, and then romped with a repeat win in the Beldame. Finally she was able to run in the Breeders’ Cup, so it was on to Kentucky. The Phipps filly arrived in Louisville with seven grade 1 wins under to her credit, and 12 wins in 12 lifetime starts. After the amazing script played itself out in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she was retired on the highest possible note. Her three year career comprised only thirteen races, but in that span she stamped herself as one of the finest distaffers ever race on America soil. A perfect racing career led to a perfect broodmare career. Personal Ensign became one of the most important broodmares in American history. Her very first foal, Miner's Mark, was a grade 1 stakes winner. Next came the nice stakes colt, Our Emblem, who went on to sire Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem. Personal Ensign also foaled, Traditionally, was a grade 1 winner at the races and as a sire. Personal Ensign's best runner was undoubtedly, My Flag. My Flag won four grade 1 stakes, including the 1995 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She also tried males, and was third in the 1996 Belmont Stakes. Like Personal Ensign, My Flag went on to achieve great success as a broodmare, notably with the Eclipse Award winning filly, Storm Flag Flying, an undefeated juvenile champion. Her BC Juvenile fillies win, meant that three generations of females won the Cup, beginning with Personal Ensign, an amazing feat. Personal Ensign was named the Broodmare of the year in 1996. Her breeding career ended ten years later, after a barren year, at the age of 22. Personal Ensign was pensioned to Claiborne Farm to live her life in comfort, where she remains today at the age of 26. Whether Personal Ensign is deserving of being called one of the greatest of all time, might be subject to debate, there can be little doubt that she was one of the greatest to appear on the racing scene since Spectacular Bid retired in 1980. Was her racing career ‘managed’ to avoid defeat? That may have played a small part, but more likely she was handled carefully to avoid any worsening of her juvenile injury. I will leave you with this parting shot…it is hard to argue with perfection. I remember you Personal Ensign.

Todd Pletcher - The Definition of Due

Todd Pletcher has clearly been the man so far this year on the Kentucky Derby trail. Pletcher’s horses have won this year’s Wood Memorial, Louisiana Derby, Fountain of Youth, Sam F. Davis Stakes and Risen Star Stakes. So dominant is Pletcher, that it is almost hard to imagine a big Derby prep without at least one of his runners in the mix. In this week’s prestigious Blue Grass, he will have two of the favorites in Aikenite and Interactif. In the Arkansas Derby, he has another of the top choices in Super Saver. The Pletcher prep wins are likely to continue. This winning streak is nothing new for the 42 year old conditioner. Pletcher has won four Eclipse Awards as the nation's outstanding trainer. He has led the national standings in earnings four times, and in 2007, he set a record when his stable earned more than $28 million. But despite of all of these personal achievements, his career is incomplete. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

Ode to Eskendereya Musket Man You probably expected me to compose a celebratory piece about a certain Wood Memorial winner today, didn’t you? In a day that was absolutely dominated by a sublime performance by a three-year-old rocket named Eskendereya, I instead offer my readers a different perspective on the beauty of a horse, and the race. Sure it was easy to marvel at the magnificence of Eskendereya as he effortlessly cantered free from quality opposition, barely slowing down on the fast lane to Louisville. I, however, found an even greater amount of joy in watching a horse in a losing effort only 36 minutes later on the same Aqueduct Racecourse. His name is Musket Man and Musket Man is the embodiment of everything I admire in a Thoroughbred horse.  So much so, that today I immortalize him on the pages of ZATT. Musket Man O’ Musket Man Whenever you run I believe you can A gorgeous dark bay with a powerful stride You always give your fans quite the ride Thundering hooves and flowing mane Your competition finds you impossible to tame I am never afraid to be your admiring tout For I know on race day you will run your heart out In the Carter Handicap you may have lost by a nose But with the race you ran your stock still rose If you run a bad race it will be your first More likely you will win each race with a burst Last year you made noise on the Triple Crown trail This Breeders’ Cup you may be the colt we all hail New York, Philly, Tampa, Chicago, Kentucky and Baltimore You have earned your fans and we are hardcore Six nice wins already to your credit There will be many more I believe in fact I will bet it Ten lifetime races and each time you impress You have become a great favorite of mine I must confess Now I vow to follow you both near and far For me you will never be anything but a star I will search for your name in hope to see you run For you Musket Man the best is yet to come Photo by Sue Kawczynski       Poem by Brian Zipse