March 7, 2010

Down and Derby c8

Kentucky Derby watchers everywhere have passed the point of no return.  Inside of eight weeks, it is put up or shut up time.  Connections and horses are now in full scramble mode to prove that they have what it takes to make a serious run for the roses.  Yesterday we saw impressive runs by an Englishman and a California bred.  Next week the fur should really fly in Arkansas, Florida, and California.  At the moment I like about 35 horses, here are my Top 20:

The Top 20

1 Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway - Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew)
Beautiful horse, beautiful breeding, and beautiful race in the Fountain of Youth.  For these reasons, he move to number one.
Likely Next Race - Florida Derby March 20

2 Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike - Private Feeling by Belong to Me)
The juvenile champ has done nothing wrong this year...he hasn't had a chance.  Eagerly looking forward to the Rebel.
Likely Next Race - Rebel Stakes March 13

3 Awesome Act (Awesome Again - Houdini‘s Honey by Mr. Prospector)
This English invader is the real deal.  I was convinced after the Breeders' Cup, after yesterday, I am doubly convinced.
Likely Next Race - Wood Memorial April 3

4 Dublin (Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage by Storm Bird)
Lukas loves him and I love his effort in the Southwest.  With his problems in the rearview mirror, he is one of the horses to beat.
Likely Next Race - Rebel Stakes March 13

5 Super Saver (Maria’s Mon - Supercharger by A.P. Indy)
Inactivity has me wondering about the horse who I saw look so good last Fall at Churchill Downs.  The Rebel will certainly test him.
Likely Next Race - Tampa Bay Derby March 13

6 Caracortado (Cat Dreams - Mons Venus by Maria’s Mon)
California bred star gets another chance to show how good he is in the San Felipe.  I look for him to once again pass the test.
Likely Next Race - San Felipe March 13

7 Connemara (Giant's Causeway - Satin Sunrise by Mr. Leader)
Can this dark horse peak his first try on dirt and on the first Saturday of May?  I think he may.  Headed back to Turfway for now.
Likely Next Race - Lane's End Stakes March 27

8 Rule (Roman Ruler - Rockcide by Personal Flag)
I only rate him at number eight, but I fear this tough Pletcher trainee a great deal.  Who will Johnny V pick?  I say Eskendereya.
Likely Next Race - Florida Derby March 20

9 Odysseus (Malibu Moon - Persimmon Hill by Conquistador Cielo)
I like everything about this grand, grandson of A.P. Indy.  The Tampa Bay Derby should provide a litmus test.
Likely Next Race - Tampa Bay Derby March 13

10 Dave in Dixie (Dixie Union - Risk by Wavering Monarch)
His impressive late runs leave me thinking he could be any kind.  We should find out a lot more in next week's race.
Likely Next Race - San Felipe March 13

11 Buddy’s Saint (St. Liam - Tuzia by Blushing John)
Time is running out for this son of St. Liam.  He needs to rebound physically and mentally, and run big in the Wood to be a serious threat.
Likely Next Race - Wood Memorial April 3

12 Ron the Greek (Full Mandate - Flambé by Fortunate Prospect)
The paceless Risen Star was a complete throw-out for this stretch runner extraordinaire.  Looking for big things from him in the Louisiana Derby.
Likely Next Race - Louisiana Derby March 27

13 Conveyance (Indian Charlie - Emptythetill by Holy Bull)
Undefeated speed balls do not usually do well in the Derby...although Seattle Slew did it.  I am betting this horse is no Seattle Slew.
Likely Next Race - Wood Memorial April 3

14 Uptowncharlybrown (Limehouse - La Ilimunada by Langfuhr)
The owners' fantasy continues.  Here's hoping that the bubble does not burst in Tampa Bay.  I expect another solid effort.
Likely Next Race - Tampa Bay Derby March 13

15 Schoolyard Dreams (Stephen Got Even - Hear This by Prospector‘s Music)
The Tampa Bay Derby is now officially the most underrated of all the Derby preps.  This horse should be a major factor next week.
Likely Next Race - Tampa Bay Derby March 13

16 Drosselmeyer (Distorted Humor - Golden Ballet by Moscow Ballet)
I still think this horse, a winner over the Churchill strip, has something.  We shall just have to wait and see how much that something is.
Likely Next Race - Sunland Derby March 28

17 Noble’s Promise (Cuvee - The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick)
A really excellent horse, but I have drawn a line in the sand...No horse sired by the speedy Cuvee will ever wear the roses.
Likely Next Race - Rebel Stakes March 13

18 American Lion (Tiznow - Storm Tide by Storm Cat)
The last race was puzzling.  I expect him to improve in the San Felipe, but will that be enough to get him past Caracortado?
Likely Next Race - San Felipe March 13

19 Alphie’s Bet (Tribal Rule - Miss Alphie by Candi‘s Gold)
This late running California bred is getting better with every start, and yesterday’s win in the Sham was clearly his best.
Likely Next Race - Santa Anita Derby April 3

20 Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings by Tabasco Cat)
I admire this horse greatly; however, I think the odds of him being strong in the Derby stretch are stacked highly against him.
Likely Next Race - Wood Memorial April 3


ja.raymond said...

Well, I'm feeling it in Dross and this point.

Anonymous said...

early bird gets the worm,....what about the cheese thing again.....things are falling into place....zipster,i see a beautiful 2010 on the horizon with a banner crop of three year olds(colts)and as is customary by mid april the one ,two or three class colts will start to seperate themselves from the pack.....good feelings say their is a very strong likelihood we have our triple crown winner this year been so darn elusive in recent years but then like everything else the one just appears like a thief in the night ,just like that because lts time and he is here and he has got to strut his stufff.......who is it thats the 20 million $$$$$$$ question and today is the beginning of a tedious journey en route to the first week in may for that famous first leg of horse racing's most prestigious event(in my mind) zipster,from your A-LIST.....i have narrowed it down to seven(@ my own peril lol)...i am apt to believe tht the wonder colt will immerge from your #s.....1......2.....3....4....6.....9...or......14........WHO IS IT ????????

william said...

wow...what a tough sure next week should unravel it a least i hope...looking for big things from dave in dixie

Sharon said...

I hope you're wrong about Noble's Promise, though. Doesn't he get some help with stamina from the pedigree line on the dam's side(Proud Truth)? I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Abitaamber said...

I am officially on the Dublin bandwagon!

Brian Zipse said...

Jane, I like how you stick to your guns, do not give up on Drosselmeyer.

Keith, I notice your picks are getting closer to mine. :)

William, Next Saturday could well be the most important Derby prep day.

Sharon, I have drawn a line in the sand...for whatever that is worth. LOL

Jay, Are you hoping for one last hurrah for the esteemed Mr. Lukas?

LDP said...

Great list Brian. The Rebel and Florida Derby will be very telling. I am looking forward to American Lion's race too. If he gets back to form I can see him holding off Caracortado. Though I would like to see him taken back a bit farther. Pro-Ride is well known for it's unkindness to horses that sit close to or on the pace.

tjreyn01 said...

i have to admit, I don't argue with your list. I don't have a top 20, but my favorites are on there. I would say that I wish they would travel east with American Lion...I think the dirt is going to be to his liking. I would like to see him on it before the Derby to see if I'm sticking to my guns with him. Still liking Dublin and Caracortado too.

bellesforever said...

excellent list.dublin!

Horse Racing Nation said...


You are so right, it's too early to give up on Drosselmeyer. Schoolyard Dreams is another legitimate horse that nobody is talking about - great to see you have him at #14. Alphie's Bet ran a big race in the Sham - only flatters Caracortado.

Great list!

Anonymous said...

Todd says maybe the Wood for Rule. I think his race in the Sam Davis was easier than people think. They could have went around again and he still would have won. I have the feeling that he may not have had any competition yet. If the Derby was today and he had an inside post I would try him. He has been pushed early and late but still keeps his head in front.