Down and Derby c8

Kentucky Derby watchers everywhere have passed the point of no return.  Inside of eight weeks, it is put up or shut up time.  Connections and horses are now in full scramble mode to prove that they have what it takes to make a serious run for the roses.  Yesterday we saw impressive runs by an Englishman and a California bred.  Next week the fur should really fly in Arkansas, Florida, and California.  At the moment I like about 35 horses, here are my Top 20: The Top 20 1 Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway - Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew) Beautiful horse, beautiful breeding, and beautiful race in the Fountain of Youth.  For these reasons, he move to number one. Likely Next Race - Florida Derby March 20 2 Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike - Private Feeling by Belong to Me) The juvenile champ has done nothing wrong this year...he hasn't had a chance.  Eagerly looking forward to the Rebel. Likely Next Race - Rebel Stakes March 13 3 Awesome Act (Awesome Again - Houdini‘s Honey by Mr. Prospector) This English invader is the real deal.  I was convinced after the Breeders' Cup, after yesterday, I am doubly convinced. Likely Next Race - Wood Memorial April 3 4 Dublin (Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage by Storm Bird) Lukas loves him and I love his effort in the Southwest.  With his problems in the rearview mirror, he is one of the horses to beat. Likely Next Race - Rebel Stakes March 13 5 Super Saver (Maria’s Mon - Supercharger by A.P. Indy) Inactivity has me wondering about the horse who I saw look so good last Fall at Churchill Downs.  The Rebel will certainly test him. Likely Next Race - Tampa Bay Derby March 13 6 Caracortado (Cat Dreams - Mons Venus by Maria’s Mon) California bred star gets another chance to show how good he is in the San Felipe.  I look for him to once again pass the test. Likely Next Race - San Felipe March 13 7 Connemara (Giant's Causeway - Satin Sunrise by Mr. Leader) Can this dark horse peak his first try on dirt and on the first Saturday of May?  I think he may.  Headed back to Turfway for now. Likely Next Race - Lane's End Stakes March 27 8 Rule (Roman Ruler - Rockcide by Personal Flag) I only rate him at number eight, but I fear this tough Pletcher trainee a great deal.  Who will Johnny V pick?  I say Eskendereya. Likely Next Race - Florida Derby March 20 9 Odysseus (Malibu Moon - Persimmon Hill by Conquistador Cielo) I like everything about this grand, grandson of A.P. Indy.  The Tampa Bay Derby should provide a litmus test. Likely Next Race - Tampa Bay Derby March 13 10 Dave in Dixie (Dixie Union - Risk by Wavering Monarch) His impressive late runs leave me thinking he could be any kind.  We should find out a lot more in next week's race. Likely Next Race - San Felipe March 13 11 Buddy’s Saint (St. Liam - Tuzia by Blushing John) Time is running out for this son of St. Liam.  He needs to rebound physically and mentally, and run big in the Wood to be a serious threat. Likely Next Race - Wood Memorial April 3 12 Ron the Greek (Full Mandate - Flambé by Fortunate Prospect) The paceless Risen Star was a complete throw-out for this stretch runner extraordinaire.  Looking for big things from him in the Louisiana Derby. Likely Next Race - Louisiana Derby March 27 13 Conveyance (Indian Charlie - Emptythetill by Holy Bull) Undefeated speed balls do not usually do well in the Derby...although Seattle Slew did it.  I am betting this horse is no Seattle Slew. Likely Next Race - Wood Memorial April 3 14 Uptowncharlybrown (Limehouse - La Ilimunada by Langfuhr) The owners' fantasy continues.  Here's hoping that the bubble does not burst in Tampa Bay.  I expect another solid effort. Likely Next Race - Tampa Bay Derby March 13 15 Schoolyard Dreams (Stephen Got Even - Hear This by Prospector‘s Music) The Tampa Bay Derby is now officially the most underrated of all the Derby preps.  This horse should be a major factor next week. Likely Next Race - Tampa Bay Derby March 13 16 Drosselmeyer (Distorted Humor - Golden Ballet by Moscow Ballet) I still think this horse, a winner over the Churchill strip, has something.  We shall just have to wait and see how much that something is. Likely Next Race - Sunland Derby March 28 17 Noble’s Promise (Cuvee - The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick) A really excellent horse, but I have drawn a line in the sand...No horse sired by the speedy Cuvee will ever wear the roses. Likely Next Race - Rebel Stakes March 13 18 American Lion (Tiznow - Storm Tide by Storm Cat) The last race was puzzling.  I expect him to improve in the San Felipe, but will that be enough to get him past Caracortado? Likely Next Race - San Felipe March 13 19 Alphie’s Bet (Tribal Rule - Miss Alphie by Candi‘s Gold) This late running California bred is getting better with every start, and yesterday’s win in the Sham was clearly his best. Likely Next Race - Santa Anita Derby April 3 20 Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings by Tabasco Cat) I admire this horse greatly; however, I think the odds of him being strong in the Derby stretch are stacked highly against him. Likely Next Race - Wood Memorial April 3