March 24, 2010

Derby Morning Line … for the Trainers

1 Todd Pletcher 5-2 (Eskendereya, Super Saver, Rule, Connemara, Interactif, Discreetly Mine & Aikenite)
Pletcher’s army is deeper than ever, giving him his best chance yet to win his first Run for the Roses.

2 Bob Baffert 3-1 (Lookin at Lucky, Conveyance & The Program)
Last time Baffert’s great Derby streak began he finished 2nd the year previous with Cavonnier. Last year Pioneerofthe Nile was 2nd…

3 Nick Zito 10-1 (Ice Box, Fly Down & Jackson Bend)
It’s been 16 years since New York Nick won his second Derby. Is he overdue for a third?

4 Thomas Amoss 15-1 (Ron the Greek & Backtalk)
Solid conditioner has two interesting candidates. The Louisiana and Illinois Derbies should tell us more.

5 D. Wayne Lukas 15-1 (Dublin, Northern Giant & Wow Wow Wow)
13 time winner in Triple Crown races and 4 time Derby winner must be respected. Dublin looks like his best chance.

6 Alexis Barba 15-1 (Alphie’s Bet & Make Music For Me)
With two legitimate contenders, she could become the biggest story on the Derby trail.

7 Kenneth McPeek 15-1 (Noble’s Promise)
Tejano Run was his best hope with a 2nd in 1995. Now 15 years later, he will try to stretch out the talent of his game colt, Noble’s Promise.

8 Jeremy Noseda 15-1 (Awesome Act)
English trainer who brought us Wilko is back looking for America’s biggest prize, and in Awesome Act, he may have the colt to get it done.

9 Michael Machowsky 20-1 (Caracortado & Nextdoorneighbor)
Nextdoorneighbor disappointed in last, so hopes may rest solely on the Cal bred gelding, Caracortado.

10 Thomas Albertrani 20-1 (Odysseus)
Won the Preakness and Travers with Bernardini. This year’s hope is firmly pinned on the lightly raced Odysseus.

11 John Sadler 20-1 (Sidney’s Candy & Dave in Dixie)
He has a speed horse and a closer, is either one good enough? Only time will tell.

12 Richard Dutrow 20-1 (Homeboy Kris, D’Funnybone & Radiohead)
2008 winner took a hit with Radiohead’s poor performance and announcement D’Funnybone was Preakness bound, but IEAH may buy him something better.

13 Derek Ryan 30-1 (Schoolyard Dreams)
He got great experience last year with Musket Man, this year he is back for more with big dreams.

14 Wesley Ward 30-1 (Pleasant Prince)
A win at Royal Ascot last year followed by a Kentucky Derby win this year would be an enviable double.

15 Field 12-1 (Everyone else)
There is still plenty of time for a horse and trainer to step up in a big way…see 2009.


ja.raymond said...

I'm thinking that by the time Louisville opens, at least 2 of Pletcher's wont start.

Brian Zipse said...

I think that is a good bet Jane, but with seven on the list, even two dropping out would still leave five Pletcher horses in the Derby.

Steve Zorn said...

The line adds up a little high --- I think about 127%, implying a win bet takeout of 20.4%, and I think Pletcher's got to be an underlay. Nice job, though.

T. N. Trosin said...

Will you give me 30-1 on Alexis Barba?

Brian Zipse said...

Steve, I always try to get my line to add up to about 125%.

I am sticking with Alexis Barba at 15-1...Alphie's Bet is a horse I am watching closely.

"The Commish" Steve A said...

Tom Amoss. If there is a MTB in this year's field, its Backtalk.

ja.raymond said...

Oh, shoot! Brian, youre reply made me see I wrote that wrong.
(this is what I get for trying to say the same thing in two different ways!)
I meant to basically say was that Pletcher will have only 2 starters...and they will be of these 4: Eskendaria, Connemara, Discreetly Mine & Aikenite.
Which 2? Well, with 5 wks to go, the "Road" will have to decide.

tencentcielo said...

A funnier line is:

Who will have the lead at the half mile pole?

A Winstar horse (4-5)
A Baffert horse (7-5)
Field (3-1)

LDP said...

Pletcher isn't just running filler this year, he actually has a very legit team, but horses like LaL, Conveyance, and Dublin will make things very tough for him.

CTColeman said...

kinda shocked their isnt a derby horse thats been bought by Godolphin/Darley yet