Will You Back the Derby Favorite?

Welcome to Zipse at the Track's Two Dozen Days of Derby.  Each and every day for the next twenty four, you will find Derby, Derby, and more Derby here on ZATT.  So please, if you want to dicuss politics or religion, you are in the wrong place.  I have Kentucky Derby Fever, and I hope you do too.  So when you visit these pages, be prepared for nothing but Talking Derby.  Today, we will discuss the merits of recent Derby favoritism.  The results may surprise you. If Eskendereya enters the 2010 Kentucky Derby starting gate, he will undoubtedly be the top choice by bettors. He assured this with his recent romp in the Wood Memorial. An enviable position, to be the Kentucky Derby favorite, right? Maybe, but maybe not. Let’s take a look at the performance of the favorites in the last 30 years: Year   Favorite                      Odds    Finish 2009   Friesan Fire                        3.80-1     18th 2008   Big Brown                          2.40-1     1st 2007   Street Sense                       4.90-1     1st 2006   Sweetnorthernsaint             5.50-1     7th 2005   Bellamy Road                     2.60-1     7th 2004   Smarty Jones                      4.10-1     1st 2003   Empire Maker                    2.50-1     2nd 2002   Harlan's Holiday                 6.00-1     7th 2001   Point Given                        1.80-1     5th 2000   Fusaichi Pegasus                2.30-1     1st 1999   General Challenge (entry)   4.80-1     11th 1998   Indian Charlie                     2.70-1     3rd 1997   Captain Bodgit                   3.10-1     2nd 1996   Unbridled's Song                3.50-1     5th 1995   Timber Country (entry)       3.40-1     3rd 1994   Holy Bull                            2.20-1     12th 1993   Prairie Bayou                     4.40-1     2nd 1992   Arazi                                    .90-1     8th 1991   Hansel                                2.50-1     10th 1990   Mister Frisky                      1.90-1     8th 1989   Easy Goer (entry)                 .80-1     2nd 1988   Private Terms                      3.40-1     9th 1987   Demons Begone                  2.20-1     DNF 1986   Snow Chief                         2.10-1     11th 1985   Chief's Crown                     1.20-1     3rd 1984   Althea (entry)                      2.80-1     19th 1983   Marfa (entry)                       2.40-1     5th 1982   Air Forbes Won                  2.70-1     7th 1981   Proud Appeal (entry)           2.30-1     18th 1980   Rockhill Native                    2.10-1     5th A closer look at these results reveal that a total of four favorites have won the Kentucky Derby in the past three decades, a winning percentage of only 13.3%. The average finish for the favorite in this time period is a very surprising 7th place. As you can tell, being the favorite means very little when the race begins. Looking at the winners over these thirty years, we see 13 horses who had double digit odds, and six of them had odds of over 20-1. What does this all mean for this year's favorite, Eskendereya? Nothing, he will not be aware of his own odds. But if you think that it is a foregone conclusion that we will see Eskendereya in the winner's circle, history has taught us that you may be in for a rude awakening.