Handicapping the Jockeys

When a good idea comes along, I like to give credit where its due, and the Breeder’s Cup Jockey Bet is a very good idea. The rules for the wager, now in its second year, are simple … bettors will be able to place wagers on the jockey they believe will have the most wins in the 14 Breeders' Cup Championships races over the two-day event. The minimum bet is $2 and wagering will begin Friday and will close just prior to the running of the first 5th race, the Breeders' Cup Marathon. Since this is one of the more fun bets of the entire weekend, I will be sure to make a bet or two on the outcome, and hopefully help you pick a winner as well. Here’s the morning line: 1 Robby Albarado 30-1 2 Rafael Bejarano 15-1 3 Calvin Borel 15-1 4 Javier Castellano 30-1 5 Kent Desormeaux 12-1 6 Frankie Dettori 20-1 7 Ramon Dominguez 30-1 8 Martin Garcia 30-1 9 Alan Garcia 25-1 10 Garrett Gomez 8-1 11 Julien Leparoux 5-1 12 Ryan Moore 15-1 13 Joel Rosario 15-1 14 Mike Smith 15-1 15 John Velazquez 5-1 16 Field (all other jockeys) 3-1 By strength of numbers alone, the first name most people will be drawn to is Julien Leparoux. He’ll be plenty busy as he rides in 13 of the races, including mounts on Al Khali, Silver Timber, and Informed Decision. Many bettors may fancy Mike Smith who will be aboard Queen Zenyatta, along with Jaycito and Proviso. Garret Gomez rides my Classic selection, Blame, Giant Oak and a handful of other horse with a shot, and despite a lack of favorites to ride, Mr. Churchill Downs himself, Calvin Borel, needs to be respected. Of the single riders, I believe it is John Velazquez who holds the strongest hand with solid contenders in Quality Road, Uncle Mo, Life at Ten, R Heat Lightning, as well as, a number of interesting longshots. He is not my top play though. As attractive it may be to single out the one rider who may clean up at this year’s Breeders’ Cup, I simply can not recommend playing against the Field. The Field may not represent our sport’s biggest names, but with mounts like Midday, Havre de Grace, Awesome Feather, Evening Jewel, Winter Memories, Awesome Gem, Master of Hounds, Big Drama, Chamberlain Bridge, J P’s Gusto, Goldikova, Here Comes Ben, Behkabad, and Musket Man, it is pretty clear that they are live in every single race. Goldikova, Midday, and Winter Memories alone offer a great chance at multiple victories, and I am pretty sure there is another winner or two in there. The 3-1 on the morning line seems like a steal. I set the fair value on the field closer to 7-5. You know I do not like to eat a lot of chalk on ZATT, but in this case, the favorite looks like the play all the way, with Johnny V as a saver.