Handicapping the Jockeys

When a good idea comes along, I like to give credit where its due, and the Breeder’s Cup Jockey Bet is a very good idea. The rules for the wager, now in its second year, are simple … bettors will be able to place wagers on the jockey they believe will have the most wins in the 14 Breeders' Cup Championships races over the two-day event. The minimum bet is $2 and wagering will begin Friday and will close just prior to the running of the first 5th race, the Breeders' Cup Marathon. Since this is one of the more fun bets of the entire weekend, I will be sure to make a bet or two on the outcome, and hopefully help you pick a winner as well. Here’s the morning line: 1 Robby Albarado 30-1 2 Rafael Bejarano 15-1 3 Calvin Borel 15-1 4 Javier Castellano 30-1 5 Kent Desormeaux 12-1 6 Frankie Dettori 20-1 7 Ramon Dominguez 30-1 8 Martin Garcia 30-1 9 Alan Garcia 25-1 10 Garrett Gomez 8-1 11 Julien Leparoux 5-1 12 Ryan Moore 15-1 13 Joel Rosario 15-1 14 Mike Smith 15-1 15 John Velazquez 5-1 16 Field (all other jockeys) 3-1 By strength of numbers alone, the first name most people will be drawn to is Julien Leparoux. He’ll be plenty busy as he rides in 13 of the races, including mounts on Al Khali, Silver Timber, and Informed Decision. Many bettors may fancy Mike Smith who will be aboard Queen Zenyatta, along with Jaycito and Proviso. Garret Gomez rides my Classic selection, Blame, Giant Oak and a handful of other horse with a shot, and despite a lack of favorites to ride, Mr. Churchill Downs himself, Calvin Borel, needs to be respected. Of the single riders, I believe it is John Velazquez who holds the strongest hand with solid contenders in Quality Road, Uncle Mo, Life at Ten, R Heat Lightning, as well as, a number of interesting longshots. He is not my top play though. As attractive it may be to single out the one rider who may clean up at this year’s Breeders’ Cup, I simply can not recommend playing against the Field. The Field may not represent our sport’s biggest names, but with mounts like Midday, Havre de Grace, Awesome Feather, Evening Jewel, Winter Memories, Awesome Gem, Master of Hounds, Big Drama, Chamberlain Bridge, J P’s Gusto, Goldikova, Here Comes Ben, Behkabad, and Musket Man, it is pretty clear that they are live in every single race. Goldikova, Midday, and Winter Memories alone offer a great chance at multiple victories, and I am pretty sure there is another winner or two in there. The 3-1 on the morning line seems like a steal. I set the fair value on the field closer to 7-5. You know I do not like to eat a lot of chalk on ZATT, but in this case, the favorite looks like the play all the way, with Johnny V as a saver.

Gorella? She Ran More Like a Gazelle

Before jumping into today’s column headfirst, I would like to take this opportunity to thank you. You see, today happens to be the one-year anniversary of Zipse at the Track. I started this blog twelve months ago, with the simple idea of sharing my love for thoroughbred horse racing with whomever might stop by to take a look. It truly has been a labor love for me and I feel blessed to have connected with so many of you through your reading of my words. Thank you all from the bottom of my heart for your loyal support, and I vow to continue writing for as long as you continue to read. But enough about me, let’s get to today’s column about a filly who rocketed by me one afternoon on the Arlington Park turf course… The setting was the 2006 Beverly D. Stakes, and I was more excited to see the girls that day then the males a little later in the Arlington Million. And why not? It was a wonderful match-up of distaff turfers. Film Maker was there, a hickory turf mare for Graham Motion, and Todd Pletcher had the distance loving star Honey Ryder ready to go. Wend, Sharp Lisa and Live Life were talented front runners, while Rich in Spirit was a solid Midwesterner. None of them were favored though, that distinction clearly fell to a French lightning bolt, named Gorella. She had caught American’s attention with a fantastic finish to be 3rd by ¾ of a length in the previous Fall’s BC Mile, in which, if not for a horrid trip, she was the likely winner. Sent off as the 6-5 choice by the savvy Arlington turf fans, Gorella would not disappoint. On paper, her victory reads like this; Gorella won the 2006 Beverly D. by 1 ¾ lengths. The final time was 1:53 3/5, one of the fastest 1 3/16 miles ever run at the Suburban Chicago track. But this was the type of performance that you do not want to be satisfied by reading the chart. At the back of the pack for the first mile of the race, Gorella and her young French rider, Julien Leparoux, seemed to be in no hurry until the horses swung out of the final turn. Running widest of all, Gorella was suddenly asked to run. Sporting easy to notice fluorescent orange silks, the four-year-old filly seemed to take form of a fireball as she stormed down the green stretch. Last-to-first in a matter of seconds, to say the move was merely explosive is an insult. To this day, I have never seen another run quite like it at Arlington Park. Gorella had immense talent, and in the Beverly D., it was on full display for the world to see. Top mares Film Maker and Honey Ryder were left to fight it out for 2nd with pacesetter Live Life. To further illustrate the quality of Gorella and the Beverly D. of 2006, those two would return next time to run 1-2 in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. Sadly, Gorella would only run two more times after the Beverly D. performance, winning the Grade 2 First Lady at Keeneland, and finishing in the middle of the pack against males in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Mile at Churchill Downs. The daughter of Grape Tree Road was a finalist for the Eclipse Award as the nation's outstanding turf female. She was denied the honor by the great globetrotting mare, Ouija Board. Gorella was retired the following Winter, when bone chips were discovered in her ankle. Owned by Martin Schwartz and trained by Patrick Biancone, Gorella was a winner of 7 of 17 starts and earned $1,456,209. The Beverly D. was the second of three consecutive graded stakes wins, and she also was a group 2 winner in France, where she finished in the money in her final two races abroad, both Group 1 affairs. Not afraid to challenge anyone, Gorella ran against the males in four of her final nine races. But, once again, it is not the stats that tell the story. Gorella was a unique talent, and when you got to see her with a clear path down the lane, it was a thing of beauty. As it was that afternoon at Arlington Park four years ago.

Chicago Filly Makes Good

Many of you may not know that Zipse at the Track is written daily from Metroland Chicago, thereby making beautiful Arlington Park my home track. Now knowing this pertinent piece of information, you can not blame me for keeping an extra close eye on those horses who start their careers at Arlington. It is a wonderful place to bring in an established turf runner, with their solid stakes schedule for those who prefer the green, but it also a great place for the Midwestern juvenile to start their careers away from the glitz of Southern California, and the bluebloods of New York. Each Summer I have the pleasure of seeing countless young colts and fillies begin their careers at Arlington, only to go on to bigger and better things after leaving the Windy City. Two of the recent juvenile filly champions, Dreaming of Anna, and She Be Wild began at Arlington. For whatever reason, Arlington Park attracts a steady influx of talented beginning horses. Another such horse made a name for herself in smashing fashion this afternoon at Gulfstream Park, her name is Amen Hallelujah. Amen Hallelujah scored her biggest win to date in the Grade 2 Davona Dale Stakes. Facing the prospect of letting the betting favorite alone on the lead, Amen Hallelujah took the onus upon herself to do all the heavy lifting. She pressured the fast filly Bickersons early, and reeled her in with ease as they straightened out. From there it was a stroll in the park, as the disheartened favorite backed out. Amen Hallelujah went on about her business and cruised to a 6 ¼ length runaway. In the process she ran approximately three lengths faster than the older stakes fillies who ran the same distance in the previous race. Very impressive indeed for the Chicago filly Why do I call her a Chicago filly? Her Chicago connection began last June when she ran fifth in her lifetime debut at Arlington. She followed that up with three more races at the Chicagoland oval. In those races, Amen Hallelujah improved with every start, breaking her maiden in her third start, before impressively running away from a field of winners in her fourth and final start at Arlington Park. I do not know if she will ever run at Arlington again, but those first four races are enough for me to always consider her a Chicago horse. Amen Hallelujah is an attractive dark bay daughter of Montbrook, and the Concorde’s Tune mare, Sara’s Success. She is owned by the partnership of IEAH and Whizway Farms and trained by Richard Dutrow. She was ridden to victory today by Julien Leperoux, this being the first time the Eclipse Award winning jockey partnered with Amen Hallelujah. She clearly did well with her new rider, but most importantly, she did very well on a brand new surface. After seven good efforts on synthetic surfaces, Amen Hallelujah was finally given the chance to see what she could do on good old fashioned dirt. Today’s result speaks volumes, of both her versatility, but also her affinity for dirt. It was not a big surprise that she liked it, as Dutrow had predicted that she would be better on the more traditional surface, after watching her work on both surfaces. After such a dominant win, the question becomes…what’s next? The obvious answer would be to bring her back in the Grade 2 Bonnie Miss Stakes in three weeks time. The Bonnie Miss is a 1 1/8 mile race and would represent the longest distance that Amen Hallelujah has run to date. It is also the same day as Gulfstream’s biggest race, the Florida Derby, giving the option to her connections of going for the gusto. While the Florida Derby may be a bit much for her right now, the Bonnie Miss and then the Kentucky Oaks seems like a very likely progression. Distance will be a question, but today’s romp at a mile gives me high hopes that one more furlong will be within her scope. Her future appears to be very bright, and with today’s win, she moves even higher up my ranking of the best sophomore fillies in the nation, into a top three position. Regardless of what she accomplishes in the future, it is always nice when a Chicago horse makes good. I will be watching.