Handicapping the Jockeys

When a good idea comes along, I like to give credit where its due, and the Breeder’s Cup Jockey Bet is a very good idea. The rules for the wager, now in its second year, are simple … bettors will be able to place wagers on the jockey they believe will have the most wins in the 14 Breeders' Cup Championships races over the two-day event. The minimum bet is $2 and wagering will begin Friday and will close just prior to the running of the first 5th race, the Breeders' Cup Marathon. Since this is one of the more fun bets of the entire weekend, I will be sure to make a bet or two on the outcome, and hopefully help you pick a winner as well. Here’s the morning line: 1 Robby Albarado 30-1 2 Rafael Bejarano 15-1 3 Calvin Borel 15-1 4 Javier Castellano 30-1 5 Kent Desormeaux 12-1 6 Frankie Dettori 20-1 7 Ramon Dominguez 30-1 8 Martin Garcia 30-1 9 Alan Garcia 25-1 10 Garrett Gomez 8-1 11 Julien Leparoux 5-1 12 Ryan Moore 15-1 13 Joel Rosario 15-1 14 Mike Smith 15-1 15 John Velazquez 5-1 16 Field (all other jockeys) 3-1 By strength of numbers alone, the first name most people will be drawn to is Julien Leparoux. He’ll be plenty busy as he rides in 13 of the races, including mounts on Al Khali, Silver Timber, and Informed Decision. Many bettors may fancy Mike Smith who will be aboard Queen Zenyatta, along with Jaycito and Proviso. Garret Gomez rides my Classic selection, Blame, Giant Oak and a handful of other horse with a shot, and despite a lack of favorites to ride, Mr. Churchill Downs himself, Calvin Borel, needs to be respected. Of the single riders, I believe it is John Velazquez who holds the strongest hand with solid contenders in Quality Road, Uncle Mo, Life at Ten, R Heat Lightning, as well as, a number of interesting longshots. He is not my top play though. As attractive it may be to single out the one rider who may clean up at this year’s Breeders’ Cup, I simply can not recommend playing against the Field. The Field may not represent our sport’s biggest names, but with mounts like Midday, Havre de Grace, Awesome Feather, Evening Jewel, Winter Memories, Awesome Gem, Master of Hounds, Big Drama, Chamberlain Bridge, J P’s Gusto, Goldikova, Here Comes Ben, Behkabad, and Musket Man, it is pretty clear that they are live in every single race. Goldikova, Midday, and Winter Memories alone offer a great chance at multiple victories, and I am pretty sure there is another winner or two in there. The 3-1 on the morning line seems like a steal. I set the fair value on the field closer to 7-5. You know I do not like to eat a lot of chalk on ZATT, but in this case, the favorite looks like the play all the way, with Johnny V as a saver.

Why Monmouth Will Succeed

Bold moves create big questions. Will the Million Dollar Meet be the future of racing? Or will the big plan not be what it’s cracked up to be, further weakening the sport on the East Coast? One thing is for sure, all of racing will be tuned in to watch Monmouth Park’s risky endeavor of shortening the race week to three days while offering 50 million dollars in purses over a 50 day race meet beginning today. My money is on Monmouth, I think their bold initiative will be a big success. Here are just a few of my favorite reasons for the prediction: ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

Anatomy of a Champion

Lookin at Lucky is the Juvenile Champion of 2009. He has won six of seven starts with only a narrow defeat in a tough trip BC Juvenile. His return to the races in last month’s Rebel Stakes was a top shelf performance. Clearly he is a racehorse who has earned respect. He may not be everyone’s top choice, but you will find him as one of the top three choices on everyone’s Derby list. Respect is the word for Lookin at Lucky, and it is well deserved. Will he win the Derby? Can he possibly be the 12th horse to win the Triple Crown? Those answers will soon unfold, but for now, I would like to give tomorrow’s Santa Anita Derby favorite the props he deserves for what he has already accomplished. He is a champion in every sense of the word. Let’s take a look under the hood and see what makes this horse so good: Pedigree: (Smart Strike -- Private Feeling by Belong to Me) Class appears everywhere in the bloodlines of this Kentucky Derby favorite. Sire Smart Strike is already a multiple champion at stud, due in large part to superstar Curlin, but he has sired many other top horses as well. Out of Mr. Prospector and the superlative broodmare Classy N’ Smart, the half brother to champion Dance Smartly has more than realized his regal breeding on the track and the breeding shed. Lookin at Lucky’s female family may not be quite as famous, but you need not look far to see quality. Broodmare sire, Belong to Me is a stakes winning son of the great sire Danzig, who was one of America’s greatest Northern Dancer influences. Private Feeling, Looking at Lucky’s dam, also traces back to Northern Dancer, Native Dancer, and Neartic on the female side, giving her a stellar breeding of both brilliance and staying power. Lookin at Lucky is her best foal, but only one year older, is the winner of last year’s Dwyer and Jim Dandy, Kensei. All and all, Lookin at Lucky has classic breeding in every branch, and should excel even at classic distances. Connections: Owner: Mike Pegram et al / Trainer: Bob Baffert / Jockey: Garrett Gomez. While a good owner may not help a horse much on raceday, a bad owner can have detrimental effects. A good owner knows to stay out of the way of their trainers. Pegram and Baffert are longtime buddies and he allows Baffert to do what he does best. There is no trainer better at getting a horse ready for a big race than Bob Baffert, as evidenced by his eight wins in Triple Crown races with Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Point Given, and War Emblem. He is not afraid to work and race his horses, and he knows how to properly prepare them for one race and a series of races. Jockey Garrett Gomez has yet to win the Kentucky Derby, but he has been one of the best riders in the nation for years. It should only be a matter of time before the two-time Eclipse Award winner breaks through on the first Saturday of May. Versatility: In his short career, Lookin at Lucky has already displayed a great versatility. With a slower early pace, he can stay close to the early lead as seen in his win in the Cash Call Futurity in December. In a stronger pace scenario, Lookin at Lucky has no problem falling behind and making a big stretch run. His last race, the Rebel Stakes, should be proof of that. In the Rebel, Looking at Lucky also showed the ability to overcome. He was bothered in the backstretch and fell much farther back then planned. Lucky was not deterred and got up to win in the final strides. His versatility also shows up in other ways, which is a good sign of a champion. Lookin at Lucky has enough brilliance to be a graded stakes winner sprinting, and he appears to be very strong in the stretch of his two turn races to date. He will have to run even longer in the upcoming races, but has shown no signs coming up short as distances become longer. Lastly our two-year-old champion, has now proven he can run well on either dirt or synthetics. Not a surprise with his breeding, but nice to see nonetheless. I do not know if it will ever happen, but Lucky should also be just fine if ever given the chance on the grass. Future Projection: Win, lose, or draw tomorrow in a tough Santa Anita Derby, I am a true believer in Lookin at Lucky, and as such, I expect him to have another big season. So much so, that I consider him the most likely winner in Louisville, and it would be a surprise to me, if he did not win at least one leg of this year’s Triple Crown. With his excellent bloodlines, a sturdy frame, and the best of connections, Lookin at Lucky should be a champion that is around for a while, and a threat in many of our biggest races.

One Courageous Cat

My favorite turf horse returned today at Gulfstream Park and earned a hard fought victory in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf Stakes at Gulfstream Park. His name is Courageous Cat, and he certainly lives up to his name. Last seen in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, where he ran second to the great French mare Goldikova, Courageous Cat showed no ill effects from the three and a half month layoff. He stalked a fast pace, as he normally does, pounced as the field straightened out and was very game in holding off a spirited rally by longshot Cherokee Artist to win by a head. A good enough return race for the Bill Mott trainee until you consider the final time. The one mile race on the lawn was run in 1:31.58. Horses simply can not run a flat mile much faster than that, and in fact, the race was less than one fifth of a second behind the world record for the distance. The Gulfstream Park turf course is playing fast, but for a return race, and one in which he was giving the field weight, it was most impressive. Coglianese Photo I first time I saw this colt, was last Summer at Belmont Park, where I was impressed with both his physical look, as well as his quick burst of speed. Courageous Cat is an attractive bay with three white stockings and a long white blaze that stretches all the way down his nose. What I saw that first day, when he broke his maiden on the grass, was a horse who could run fast early and then explode into another gear to put his competition away. He was placed directly into stakes races after the maiden score, and he continued to impress. He won an overnight stake at Belmont, shading 1:40 for a 1 1/16 in the process, before easily annexing the Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga. That day he ran 1:45.90 for the nine furlongs. His three race skein was broken in the Grade 1 Jamaica, where he steadied, when the real running began and was beaten by the classy Take the Points by ¾ of a length. In that defeat, he showed a lot of heart as he re-rallied, after he looked like he was out of the race. On Breeders’ Cup Day, Courageous Cat made a name for himself. He knocked on the door of stardom when he surged to the lead at the eighth pole before succumbing to the irresistible rush of Goldikova. Ignored that afternoon at nearly 23-1, he was the best performing of my longshot selections in the BC races, and I will be a fan of his for the duration. Ridden for the second consecutive time by Garrett Gomez, today’s victory was Courageous Cat’s fourth win in seven career starts on the grass. It marked his third stakes win and second graded stakes tally. So far, so good for the impeccably bred son of Storm Cat and Tranquility Lake. A homebred for Pam and Martin Wygod, Courageous Cat is very lightly raced and still on the improve. If he remains healthy, he will give the American side a wonderful opportunity to reclaim the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Churchill Downs. A task made all the taller by the fact that the two-time defending champion Goldikova is preparing to begin her five-year-old season and another raid on our Breeders’ Cup. Can he beat her? Only time will tell, but now a year older and with more experience there for the offing, I think he just may be the horse to take down the French Superstar. He has courage, and he has speed. He is…One Courageous Cat.

Life Certainly Is Sweet

You have to feel for Life Is Sweet. The 4-year-old Storm Cat filly entered the Ladies Classic on a four race losing streak that followed dominant wins in the El Encino, La Canada, and Santa Margarita to begin the year. Her connections were not afraid to race their filly against the best, as one of the four consecutive losses came in the Hollywood Gold Cup where she finished 3rd in a field of 13, against a field of top older handicap males of California. The other three losses were at the hands of the undefeated super mare, Zenyatta. Making the situation more unfortunate is that Zenyatta is her stablemate, both horses being conditioned by John Shirreffs. This is comparable to being the 2nd best tennis player in the state, with the best player being in your own high school, or to put it into horse terms, being Riva Ridge and barnmates with Secretariat. While they are owned by different people, she could never be the star in her own barn. All that would change as Life is Sweet finally had her day in the sun yesterday taking full advantage of her biggest stage. In a dazzling display of stretch running power, Life Is Sweet circled the entire field on the far turn and drew off easily to win by 2 1/2 lengths and became the star of Ladies Day at the Breeders’ Cup. With Careless Jewel setting suicidal early fractions, Life Is Sweet and her rider Garrett Gomez were more than content to bide their time at the back of the pack. As Careless Jewel began to succumb, from her early sprint, Life Is Sweet began to uncoil her rush. The result of the race would be quickly decided as no one else could keep pace and Life Is Sweet rolled home an easy winner. Longshot Mushka put in a nice late bid to finish 2nd, but on this day it was all about Life Is Sweet. Final time for the 9 furlongs on Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride main track was 1:48.58. Her freight train like rally, coming from last and spinning out of the turn widest of all, was reminiscent of another California mare…I don’t think I need to mention her name. Leading up to the BC, little attention was paid to the full sister of 2004 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and champion Sweet Catomine. Instead all eyes were on the mighty Zenyatta, who runs today in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, where she will take on the boys and attempt to become the first female winner ever. Life Is Sweet meanwhile was coming in off those four losses and was the forgotten horse. The credit she was given for her impressive victories in January through March was long forgotten in our ‘what have you done for me lately’ world. I give her credit though for her continuously trying to beat the best throughout her challenging campaign. In fact, owner Martin Wygod was very disappointed before the race that he would not get one more chance at Zenyatta. I wonder if that disappointment was abated at all with yesterday’s result? Without the presence of her big stablemate, Zenyatta and the likely Horse of the Year, Rachel Alexandra, the field for the Ladies Classic seemed to come up a little flat in the minds of many. The performance of one horse, however, was not. The Ladies Classic was Life Is Sweet’s sixth win from 15 lifetime starts and she picked a most opportune to time to run the race of her life. With her dominating win yesterday, Life Is Sweet clearly stamped herself as the premier older filly in the nation, except for that other Shirreffs’ horse. It was a memorable performance that should not be forgotten. She may never be Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta, but what she is, certainly is sweet.