Handicapping the Jockeys

When a good idea comes along, I like to give credit where its due, and the Breeder’s Cup Jockey Bet is a very good idea. The rules for the wager, now in its second year, are simple … bettors will be able to place wagers on the jockey they believe will have the most wins in the 14 Breeders' Cup Championships races over the two-day event. The minimum bet is $2 and wagering will begin Friday and will close just prior to the running of the first 5th race, the Breeders' Cup Marathon. Since this is one of the more fun bets of the entire weekend, I will be sure to make a bet or two on the outcome, and hopefully help you pick a winner as well. Here’s the morning line: 1 Robby Albarado 30-1 2 Rafael Bejarano 15-1 3 Calvin Borel 15-1 4 Javier Castellano 30-1 5 Kent Desormeaux 12-1 6 Frankie Dettori 20-1 7 Ramon Dominguez 30-1 8 Martin Garcia 30-1 9 Alan Garcia 25-1 10 Garrett Gomez 8-1 11 Julien Leparoux 5-1 12 Ryan Moore 15-1 13 Joel Rosario 15-1 14 Mike Smith 15-1 15 John Velazquez 5-1 16 Field (all other jockeys) 3-1 By strength of numbers alone, the first name most people will be drawn to is Julien Leparoux. He’ll be plenty busy as he rides in 13 of the races, including mounts on Al Khali, Silver Timber, and Informed Decision. Many bettors may fancy Mike Smith who will be aboard Queen Zenyatta, along with Jaycito and Proviso. Garret Gomez rides my Classic selection, Blame, Giant Oak and a handful of other horse with a shot, and despite a lack of favorites to ride, Mr. Churchill Downs himself, Calvin Borel, needs to be respected. Of the single riders, I believe it is John Velazquez who holds the strongest hand with solid contenders in Quality Road, Uncle Mo, Life at Ten, R Heat Lightning, as well as, a number of interesting longshots. He is not my top play though. As attractive it may be to single out the one rider who may clean up at this year’s Breeders’ Cup, I simply can not recommend playing against the Field. The Field may not represent our sport’s biggest names, but with mounts like Midday, Havre de Grace, Awesome Feather, Evening Jewel, Winter Memories, Awesome Gem, Master of Hounds, Big Drama, Chamberlain Bridge, J P’s Gusto, Goldikova, Here Comes Ben, Behkabad, and Musket Man, it is pretty clear that they are live in every single race. Goldikova, Midday, and Winter Memories alone offer a great chance at multiple victories, and I am pretty sure there is another winner or two in there. The 3-1 on the morning line seems like a steal. I set the fair value on the field closer to 7-5. You know I do not like to eat a lot of chalk on ZATT, but in this case, the favorite looks like the play all the way, with Johnny V as a saver.

Back On a Quality Road

It is hard to believe that Quality Road has only made nine lifetime starts. This is a colt who has been making racing headlines from day one. Let’s take a quick look at a timeline of highlights: November 29, 2008 - His racing debut results in one of the highest Beyers of any juvenile of 2008, as he easily wins a 6 ½ furlong maiden race at Aqueduct. February 28, 2009 - After a disappointing 2nd place finish in his three-year-old debut, Quality Road destroys his competition in his first stakes try in the Fountain of Youth. March 28, 2009 - He breaks the track record while winning the Grade 1 Florida Derby in only his 4th lifetime start, making him the early favorite for the 2009 Kentucky Derby. April 27, 2009 - It is announced that a second quarter crack will keep Quality Road, the likely favorite for the Run for the Roses, out of the big race at Churchill Downs. June 15, 2009 - News comes in that owner and breeder Edward P. Evans has transferred Quality Road from trainer Jimmy Jerkens to the barn of Todd Pletcher. August 3, 2009 - Recovered from his quarter crack problems, and making his first start for his new high profile trainer, Quality Road grabs his 2nd track record with a scintillating win against top sprinters in the Amsterdam Stakes at Saratoga August 29, 2009 - Despite his lack of racing, Quality Road is the clear favorite in the prestigious Travers. Fractious in the gate, he has a tough trip in the slop and tires late to finish 3rd in the Mid-summer Derby to the new leader of the division, Summer Bird. October 3, 2009 - Another meeting with Summer Bird again plays out on a sloppy track in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. This time Quality Road is more competitive, but again succumbs late to the soon to be sophomore champion. November 7, 2009 - Quality Road becomes so traumatized that he will not load into the Breeders’ Cup Classic starting gate in what becomes a scary scene. He suffers minor injuries and suffers mentally as well, needing to be vanned all the way back to Belmont Park from Southern California after refusing to get on the plane. November 20, 2009 - The racing community is surprised to learn that Quality Road, less than two weeks removed from his BC incident, may run in the Cigar Mile after schooling in the starting gate several days. The plan is eventually scrapped and Quality Road is sent South for the Winter. Like I said, it is hard to believe that Quality Road has only run nine times, and judging from his last performance, it is clear his story is far from over. His most recent race was undoubtedly his best race to date and what a performance it was. In the Donn, Quality Road stalked the lead of Past the Point closely, and smoothly moved up to challenge the leader on the turn. The powerful bay colt took over the lead before straightening out for the stretch, and "poof!" the race was over. Quality Road enjoyed a sudden advantage at the top of the lane, and from there put his immense talent on display when asked by rider John Velazquez. His lead extended with every awesome stride, crossing the wire more than a dozen lengths in front in the grade 1 affair. Final time over the Gulfstream strip was 1:47.49, giving Quality Road his third track record in only those nine starts. What’s next for Quality Road? Tune in to Monday’s Met Mile and find out!

Why Monmouth Will Succeed

Bold moves create big questions. Will the Million Dollar Meet be the future of racing? Or will the big plan not be what it’s cracked up to be, further weakening the sport on the East Coast? One thing is for sure, all of racing will be tuned in to watch Monmouth Park’s risky endeavor of shortening the race week to three days while offering 50 million dollars in purses over a 50 day race meet beginning today. My money is on Monmouth, I think their bold initiative will be a big success. Here are just a few of my favorite reasons for the prediction: ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here