Breeders’ Cup Day 1 Winners

I share my winners with my readers, it is what I do… The BC Marathon features many horses running a distance they have never run before. Because of this, it becomes a difficult race to handicap. Therefore a small percentage of the bankroll will be placed on the first Breeders’ Cup race. Mastery and maybe one or two of the Euros will be favored and they certainly have a shot to win, but I think it is worth a chance to try and beat them. Cloudy’s Knight is my pick. The 9-year-old is in fine form and fresh and is certainly the most classy of the American entrants. Trained by a true master, Jonathan Sheppard, Cloudy’s Night came flying at the finish and out battled the excellent turf horse, Winchester, in his last and a repeat of that performance could well be enough to win this. I see no reason why Cloudy’s Knight should not take to the Pro-Ride surface, as most turf horses do, and I would love to see the old boy roll home in the stretch. By the way, wouldn’t it be fitting in the only male BC race on Ladies Day, to have female jockey Rosemary Homeister come out on top? As a betting race, I like the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Smart Seattle is my top pick, but I also like Hatheer. Both should have attractive odds and both are returning to their preferred surface, turf, after a race on a synthetic surface. Smart Seattle liked the firm turf of her impressive maiden score and then was hampered by a slow pace when second to Tapitsfly in her second try on turf. She should have a nice stalking trip and I expect trainer Graham Motion will have her ready for her best in her fourth start. Hatheer is regally bred for the grass and I expect sharp improvement after running 3rd on Keeneland’s main track. Both fillies should relish the one mile distance and listed at 8-1 and 10-1 on the morning line, this could be a race to win some serious money. The next two races offer the day’s singles. Ventura is a true superstar, and despite facing a tough field headed by Informed Decision, I fully expect her to notch another impressive victory in the Filly & Mare Sprint. Bet against Ventura at your own peril. In the Juvenile Fillies, there are a number of horses with potential to run a good race, unfortunately, they also come with numerous questions attached. That is except for one…Blind Luck. She likes the track, the distance and she has the best form in the race. Sounds simple, keep it simple. The best horse wins this race and that horse is the former claimer, Blind Luck. In the Filly & Mare Turf, I am confident I know who the best horse in the race is, and that is Pure Clan. Unfortunately, it appears to be a paceless race, which will not make it easy on the stretch running daughter of Pure Prize. I love her class, consistency and ability to handle all turf conditions, but she can be susceptible to a slow pace. Defending champ, Forever Together, also could he hampered if they dawdle early. Midday, the young European who could go off as the favorite, may get the early lead and become the horse to catch in the sprint to the wire. All eight horses in the race have class and a I do expect a cavalry charge to the wire. I am sticking with Pure Clan, but do not be surprised if the entire field hits the wire just a few lengths apart. To me the Ladies Classic boils down to one question…is Careless Jewel ready to handle the dive into the deep end of the pool? She will be on the lead early, she can handle synthetics and she has been simply marvelous in her romping wins at Woodbine, Delaware, Saratoga, and Philadelphia, but these are tough older mares headed by Godolphin’s Music Note. Is she good enough to win here? I say yes, Careless Jewel goes wire to wire. I hope these picks help and have a happy Breeders’ Cup Day 1!

Eclipse Awards and the Breeders’ Cup

Wondering what the Breeders' Cup races will mean to division titles? 2-year-old Filly - This is a division that traditionally goes to the Breeders’ Cup winner, and this year should be no different. Hot Dixie Chick, the current leader of the division, will lose her lead as soon as the first juvenile filly crosses the wire. I like Blind Luck in the race, which will clinch the award for her. winner - Blind Luck 2-year-old Colt - The winner of the BC Juvenile is likely to win the Eclipse Award. Having said that, I expect the order of the division not to change, as the horse I expect to win is Lookin at Lucky, who is already the leader of the division. winner - Lookin at Lucky 3-year-old Filly - Rachel Alexandra is the champion. A win in the Ladies Classic would give Careless Jewel an impressive resume, but only good enough for second place for the award. winner - Rachel Alexandra 3-year-old Colt - Summer Bird has already done enough to win the coveted 3-year-old championship and does not need to win the Classic to maintain his lead. I see only one scenario that could change the order of things: If the Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird, were to pull off another surprise and win the two biggest races in the nation, he would have a strong claim to the division title. I do not expect another Mine That Bird surprise. winner - Summer Bird Turf Female - A wide open division will be decided on Breeders’ Cup Day. Almost anyone in the race can annex the championship with a victory. If the Filly & Mare Turf winner has a questionable resume, Goldikova is waiting in the wings and can steal the award with an impressive win in the Mile. I predict Pure Clan will win on Friday and be named our champion turf mare. winner - Pure Clan Turf Male - Gio Ponti is the deserving champion unless one thing happens: If Presious Passion were to go wire to wire in the Breeders’ Cup Turf he could steal the Eclipse Award. Oddly, if Gio Ponti were to win the Classic on the synthetic surface, it would probably not matter what Presious Passion does in the Turf. I think Presious Passion can get it done. winner - Presious Passion Sprint Female - If the voting for the champion female sprinter were awarded today it would certainly go to Informed Decision who has five stakes wins this year including a head decision over Ventura in April. Her hold is tenuous though, as a Filly & Mare Sprint win by Ventura, Seventh Street, Sara Louise, Game Face or Evita Argentina would be enough to overtake the division. I like Ventura. winner - Ventura Sprint Male - Zensational is the leader of the division, but if he loses, others are ready to take the mantle with a win in the Sprint. I like Gayego in the BC, which will easily be enough to propel him to the championship. winner - Gayego Older Female - Zenyatta is the worthy repeat champion. A win by Music Note or any other older female in the Ladies Classic will not be enough to dethrone the champ. winner - Zenyatta Older Male - Talk about a wide open division. If any older male can win the Classic, the Eclipse Award is a done deal. I am not picking an older male to win the Classic, so that brings it back to the current leader, Einstein. Despite only two wins this year, I believe Einstein has been consistently good enough to hold on to the division lead. winner - Einstein Horse of the Year - Rachel Alexandra is the overwhelming leader for the year’s biggest award. Her eight stakes wins out of eight races double her nearest competition, as Zenyatta, Summer Bird and Gio Ponti all have four wins this year. Having said that, if any of the aforementioned three can win the year’s biggest race, the Breeders’ Cup Classic, there would be voters willing to swing their vote to the Classic winner, especially if it is the undefeated Zenyatta. I will not. Rachel Alexandra has simply done more than anyone else. Classic or no Classic, she is my Horse of the Year. winner - Rachel Alexandra

The Fantastic Fours - Take 2

One week from Day 1. Breeders’ Cup is so close, I can smell the sweet fragrance of the Fall championship racing of my youth. It is true what they say, olfactory receptors can snap you back into distant memories more acutely than any of the other senses. The smell of the Autumn air fires millions of neurons, making me instantly happy and thinking horses. The early homework has been done. I have tore into the pre-entry past performances with all the voracity of a rottweiler with a new chew toy. Listed below are my top four choices for each Breeders’ Cup race…I have included the fourth horse especially for all my friends who like a little action in the superfecta. MARATHON 1. Cloudy’s Knight - Oh what a story this would be! His last race was super. 2. Mastery - European youngster is a classy sort who loves the distance. 3. Nite Light - Will be joined on the front end by Black Astor. 4. Father Time - Not quite as good as Mastery in England. JUVENILE FILLIES TURF 1. Smart Seattle - Motion charge is primed to return to the winner’s circle. 2. Lillie Langtry - Euro shipper has great form in England and Ireland. 3. House of Grace - Beware the undefeated filly down the lane. 4. Hatheer - Should appreciate the return to turf. FILLY & MARE SPRINT 1. Ventura - Defending champ’s in fine fettle and is strictly the one to beat. 2. Informed Decision - Hard to ignore her 6 for 6 record on synthetics. 3. Evita Argentina - Her last effort was not the real Evita Argentina. 4. Seventh Street - Classy filly drops down in distance; beware. JUVENILE FILLIES 1. Blind Luck - Unheralded filly does nothing wrong; closing in on an Eclipse. 2. Beautician - Trip at Keeneland was a nightmare; gets another chance. 3. Always a Princess - Off the pace & more experienced, she’ll be a handful. 4. Devil May Care - Undefeated Pletcher filly has talent. FILLY & MARE TURF 1. Pure Clan - Quality filly is versatile; ready to pull of a West Coast upset 2. Magical Fantasy - Streaking filly is a threat to defend her home turf. 3. Forever Together - Defending champ should appreciate return to firm. 4. Midday - Classy 3-year-old shoulders European flag. LADIES’ CLASSIC 1. Careless Jewel - Speed to burn; Can they catch her? 2. Music Note - A monster at three, she is rounding back into scary form. 3. Proviso - First performance on synthetic puts her in with a chance. 4. Lethal Heat - Beware the game California bred. JUVENILE TURF 1. Interactif - The most promising U.S. turf juvenile in years should win this. 2. Pounced - Gosden colt may be the European’s top threat. 3. Buzzword - Experienced juvenile carries the Godolphin silks. 4. Viscount Nelson - Bred to be a champion, but may prefer a softer turf. TURF SPRINT 1. Diamondrella - Might be just the mare to nail the boys going down the hill. 2. California Flag - Speed is always dangerous on this course. 3. Silver Timber - Getting better with each start; streaks down the stretch. 4. Yankee Ingenuity - Longshot play may love the firm Santa Anita turf. MILE DIRT 1. Mastercraftsman - Too much class to ignore. 2. Chocolate Candy - I’ll try this guy one more time at juicy odds. 3. Midshipman - Returns to the scene of his biggest triumph; dangerous. 4. Crown of Thorns - One mile distance should benefit this Mandella charge. JUVENILE 1. Lookin at Lucky - Does what he has to do; the best juvenile in the country. 2. Aikenite - Getting better with each run; Lucky’s #1 threat. 3. Pulsion - Long winded son of Include should be up for a share. 4. Eskendereya - Steps up in class, but this one is very intriguing. MILE 1. Godilkova - Champion filly looks to join Miesque as female Mile repeaters. 2. Court Vision - Dutrow says he has him figured out…maybe so. 3. Justenuffhumor - Will firm turf bring back his best stuff? 4. Cowboy Cal - Is never easy to run by this salty son of Giant’s Causeway. SPRINT 1. Gayego - Godolphin has this talented colt ready to roll, all systems go. 2. Capt. Candyman Can - Can not deny this honest sprinter’s consistent rush. 3. Zensational - Grade 1 talent finally faces the acid test. 4. Fatal Bullet - Speedy Canadian loves the synthetics. TURF 1. Presious Passion - America’s best hope will lead them on a merry chase. 2. Conduit - Returning champ will be tough to deny in the lane. 3. Spanish Moon - Sir Michael Stoute has this horse fresh and ready. 4. Dar Re Mi - Would not be a surprise if the filly proved best in here. CLASSIC 1. Rip Van Winkle - The 2nd best colt in the world should love 1 ¼ on Pro-Ride. 2. Einstein - A very tough customer and he likes this surface. 3. Gio Ponti - Probably not his best surface, but still a big threat at 1 ¼. 4. Colonel John - It is put up or shut up time; ready to bring his best?

And Now for Something Completely Different …

The Top 10 Performances of the weekend. Let’s count it down. 10) Tie - Varenar and Interpatation both pulled off shocking upsets over a couple of the best turf horses in the world yesterday. Varenar upset Goldikova in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp and Interpatation outlasted Gio Ponti in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. Probably the biggest win that either horse will attain but worth a mention for the best of the weekend. 9) Kodiak Kowboy is one tough sprinter when he runs his best and yesterday in the slop of the Vosburgh he ran his best. With the timing of a fine Swiss watch, Kodiak Kowboy unleashed his powerful rally late to run by one of the best sprinters of recent years, Fabulous Strike, for a gritty victory. 8) Mastercraftsman did not beat much in his runaway victory in the Diamond Stakes Friday night in Ireland, but what he did do, was prep effectively for the Breeders' Cup. In his first try on a synthetic surface, Mastercraftsman said “yes” to his connections for a shot at the Classic 7) Awesome Gem was due. If ever a good horse was due for a stakes win, this was the horse. Awesome Gem had run so many good races with no ultimate reward, that you just had to root for him to finally break through for his first stakes win in more than two and a half years. I say good for the old boy, congratulations on your Hawthorne Gold Cup score. 6) Music Note did what she needed to do in a Grade 1 race that was decimated by defections. Her win in the Beldame against an overmatched field, was effortless and it sets her up perfectly for another try in the BC Ladies Classic. 5) Gone Astray is a horse I have been watching for some time and I am confident he is better than most people realize. Yesterday in the Ohio Derby, he met few horses of consequence, but he won authoritatively after chasing down a leader loose on the lead. Big things are in this colt’s future. 4) Pure Clan is pure class. After a tough pace scenario in her last start, the Beverly D, she was primed for her best effort and it was produced over the boggish turf course yesterday at Belmont in the Flower Bowl. She will see different turf conditions in the Breeders’ Cup, but she will be a major factor. 3) Careless Jewel was fantastic yet again as she absolutely toyed with her filly counterparts in the rich Cotillion Stakes at Philadelphia Park. She is now ready to step up and take on the big girls next because she is making a mockery of these 3-year-old races. 2) Summer Bird has taken a stranglehold on the 3-year-old male eclipse award with another huge win in the state of New York. His Jockey Club Gold Cup win was a workmanlike display of consistency and class as he methodically wore down Quality Road. This win places him firmly in the upper echelon of American horses in only his first year of racing. Drum roll please…and the number 1 performance of the weekend was… 1) Sea the Stars was absolutely spect-Arc-ular in winning the world’s most important race on the grass. He traveled to France and met his largest and toughest field yet, but it made little matter as he verified his greatness with an electrifying two length victory. Stuck down on the rail and a little keen early on, Sea the Stars easily shifted out to get a clear run and then turned on the afterburners to easily dispatch the world class field. If this proves to be his final career race, he certainly leaves the world of racing on a tremendous note.

Belmont’s Grade 1 Day

Now if we could just have Grade 1 weather. Yes, I wake up a little disappointed this morning as much like Travers Day, it looks like another big day for NYRA is going to be wet. You never know with the weather, but right now Belmont looks likely to have a sloppy day. This changes things of course for the horses, jockeys, fans, and from my standpoint on the handicapping front. The horses that would have won on a fast track and a firm turf, may very well not win in the wet conditions. It is not often that one racetrack has five Grade 1 races in succession, so let’s still enjoy the quality horses running in big races, but…was a nice sunny day too much to ask? Oh well, at least Woodward Day was a beauty. The Grade 1 Beldame - Music Note on dirt. Music Note on mud. Music Note in the slop. No odds here, so let’s single her in the Pick-3 and if you are really feeling ambitious, the Pick-6. I do not see her losing this one. The Grade 1 Vosburgh - I was all set to try to beat favorite Fabulous Strike with the Belmont loving Munnings, but I have lost confidence in his chances of running down the favorite on a wet track. Fabulous Strike is a monster at 6 furlongs and likes a wet track. He should be able to handle Go Go Shoot, who might not like the slop, pretty early and will be long gone. More chalk, so I am relying heavily on the exotics and getting off to a good start in the Pick-4. The Grade 1 Flower Bowl - I think Pure Clan is the best horse in the race, but I think her advantage actually moves down on a soft turf. Her main rival Dynaforce certainly appreciates plenty of cut to the turf as evidenced by last year’s Flower Bowl and now becomes an even bigger threat. Because of this, I expect bettors to make Dynaforce the favorite and while I fear her, I am sticking with Pure Clan. She is all class, can handle a wet turf and is unlucky to not have an even better record on the grass. All she needs is a reasonable pace, which I think will happen today, to roll in the lane. Today is her day. The Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic - Gio Ponti is well on his way to being named the turf champion. He can run on any type of grass condition, is very consistent, and appears to like the Belmont turf course. Having said this, I do feel like he is vulnerable today. This is the farthest he has ever run and he has to face defending champ Grand Couturier, on a course condition and a distance that he absolutely loves. I will be rooting for Gio Ponti to continue his winning ways as a fan, but on my multi-race tickets, I will include both him and Grand Couturier. The Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup - I was really liking the chances of Quality Road on a fast track. A little more question is now in my mind as his top two rivals (Summer Bird and Macho Again) have more quality off-track form than he does. I still do see the race unfolding with Quality Road getting the perfect stalking trip and pouncing on the turn. Maybe the slop will spread out the horses even more and he will be even more likely to run away from them in the stretch. Today is his day to move to the head of the class of 3-year-old males. No matter the condition of the track, I am going to stick with Quality Road as the final horse on my all Grade 1 Pick-4. Rain or no rain, I am going to enjoy Belmont’s Grade 1 day. I hope you do the same.