Belmont’s Grade 1 Day

Now if we could just have Grade 1 weather. Yes, I wake up a little disappointed this morning as much like Travers Day, it looks like another big day for NYRA is going to be wet. You never know with the weather, but right now Belmont looks likely to have a sloppy day. This changes things of course for the horses, jockeys, fans, and from my standpoint on the handicapping front. The horses that would have won on a fast track and a firm turf, may very well not win in the wet conditions. It is not often that one racetrack has five Grade 1 races in succession, so let’s still enjoy the quality horses running in big races, but…was a nice sunny day too much to ask? Oh well, at least Woodward Day was a beauty. The Grade 1 Beldame - Music Note on dirt. Music Note on mud. Music Note in the slop. No odds here, so let’s single her in the Pick-3 and if you are really feeling ambitious, the Pick-6. I do not see her losing this one. The Grade 1 Vosburgh - I was all set to try to beat favorite Fabulous Strike with the Belmont loving Munnings, but I have lost confidence in his chances of running down the favorite on a wet track. Fabulous Strike is a monster at 6 furlongs and likes a wet track. He should be able to handle Go Go Shoot, who might not like the slop, pretty early and will be long gone. More chalk, so I am relying heavily on the exotics and getting off to a good start in the Pick-4. The Grade 1 Flower Bowl - I think Pure Clan is the best horse in the race, but I think her advantage actually moves down on a soft turf. Her main rival Dynaforce certainly appreciates plenty of cut to the turf as evidenced by last year’s Flower Bowl and now becomes an even bigger threat. Because of this, I expect bettors to make Dynaforce the favorite and while I fear her, I am sticking with Pure Clan. She is all class, can handle a wet turf and is unlucky to not have an even better record on the grass. All she needs is a reasonable pace, which I think will happen today, to roll in the lane. Today is her day. The Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic - Gio Ponti is well on his way to being named the turf champion. He can run on any type of grass condition, is very consistent, and appears to like the Belmont turf course. Having said this, I do feel like he is vulnerable today. This is the farthest he has ever run and he has to face defending champ Grand Couturier, on a course condition and a distance that he absolutely loves. I will be rooting for Gio Ponti to continue his winning ways as a fan, but on my multi-race tickets, I will include both him and Grand Couturier. The Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup - I was really liking the chances of Quality Road on a fast track. A little more question is now in my mind as his top two rivals (Summer Bird and Macho Again) have more quality off-track form than he does. I still do see the race unfolding with Quality Road getting the perfect stalking trip and pouncing on the turn. Maybe the slop will spread out the horses even more and he will be even more likely to run away from them in the stretch. Today is his day to move to the head of the class of 3-year-old males. No matter the condition of the track, I am going to stick with Quality Road as the final horse on my all Grade 1 Pick-4. Rain or no rain, I am going to enjoy Belmont’s Grade 1 day. I hope you do the same.

Travers Day … Here is What I Saw

A sea of slop and a soft turf course were the stage yesterday for some of the best horses in America. Travers Day is an important one, not only for the 3-year-olds, but also for many other divisions as well. I had my thumb at the ready to dish out some approval or some disappointment to the performers. Here is what I saw. Thumbs up to Summer Bird. He is now the master of his domain (3-year-old colts) with his second impressive win in a classic race. Summer Bird was much the best yesterday and proved his Belmont Stakes win was far from a fluke. In my eyes, he is now the clear leader in the division, and only a win by one of the other 3-year-olds in the Breeder’s Cup Classic would deny him an eclipse award. Congratulations to his young conditioner Tim Ice, who is barely one year into being on his own as a trainer. Thumbs up to Music Note. She was inches from being the 3-year-old filly champion last year, but her one race so far this year left much doubt as to her 4-year-old campaign. That doubt was erased with an overpowering performance in the Ballerina. Music Note is back, and I move her all the way up to the second position on my list of top older mares behind only Zenyatta. Thumbs up to Vineyard Haven. I knew he was a top 2-year-old last year, but to think he would run this well against such a great field yesterday caught me by surprise. His talent is undeniable as it almost overcame just one race in twelve months and that being during an unproductive Winter in Dubai. If he improves at all off of the King’s Bishop, he will be a force to be reckoned with this Fall. Thumbs up to Sara Louise. Another one who I thought might not be ready for her best yet, but she just outclassed her rivals in the Victory Ride. It will be very interesting to see where she goes from here, but she may be a very good one. Thumbs up to Salve Germania. I bet on her, so that is enough for me. The European certainly relished the boggy turf course and ran the race of her life. She might never beat this kind again, but hey, once is pretty good. Thumbs up to Rachel Alexandra. The empress of American racing was once again flattered by her former competition. Notably Summer Bird and Sara Louise. Every time her former rivals come back and win big races impressively, it makes me think that she is even better than the extremely high opinion I already had. Thumbs down to the Jim Dandy horses. Kensei sixth, Warrior’s Reward fifth, and Charitable Man fourth, all had little to say when the real running of the Travers went down. For a bunch that looked like they all had a shot going in, it was a dismal finish, proving that this year’s Jim Dandy was inferior in quality to its normal high standard. Thumbs down to Indian Blessing. Indian Blessing was a star at 2. Indian Blessing was a star at 3. Indian Blessing is not a star at 4. I don’t know if she is not the same since her Dubai sojourn, or if she has just lost a step, but she is not the same horse this year. Thumbs down to Big Drama and Munnings. I expected a lot more of these two highly regarded 3-year-old colts. Full of class and dropping down in distance. Both bred to enjoy slop, they simply did not have it yesterday and were no match for Vineyard Haven and Capt. Candyman Can. They will need to step up their games if they want to be factors in either the BC Sprint or Dirt Mile.

Travers Day / Rainy Day

Ahh … Travers Day. One of my favorite days of the year. The Travers itself is always great, throw in a bunch of other very good stakes at Saratoga and you have yourself one of the best racing days of the year. Unfortunately, this year looks like it might be a little wet. I will not let that dampen my enthusiasm though. What I will do, is alter my selections accordingly for the wet track. Here is what I think: Race 7 - The Victory Ride Sara Louise, the last horse to beat Rachel Alexandra, will be overbet. Since I am not fond of her chances anyway, coming off the long layoff, I am happy to throw the favorite right out. All of her Twist, part of the Kelly Breen entry, can handle a wet track and should appreciate the fast pace carved out by her entry mate. She is the main play. The longshot play is Trix in the City, from the hot Linda Rice barn, who is actually stepping down in class after chasing the blazing Elusive Heat in her latest. She should be high odds and has a chance. The play - The All of Her Twist entry boxed with Trix in the City, Selva and Reforestation Race 9 - The Ballston Spa I am hoping that NYRA can keep this race on the turf. If so, on a yielding or soft turf, this race becomes more wide open. Recent import Salve Germania and Thomas Proctor’s Closeout both would appear to prefer soggy grass and could have enough to take this against the very classy, favorites Rutherienne and Cocoa Beach. The play - Key exacta box Salve Germania and Closeout with Cocoa Beach, Rutherienne, My Princess Jess and Captain’s Lover. Race 10 - The Ballerina Two of the best female sprinters in the world Indian Blessing and Informed Decision will battle in an interesting 7 furlong affair. I give Indian Blessing the slight edge in the slop, but not by much. Longshot Modification is not as good, but appears to want dirt and like it wet. Throw in Music Note who lost the 3-year-old filly championship by only a head last year and it should be a fun race. The play - Trifecta with Indian Blessing and Informed Decision boxed for 1-2 and Music Note and Modification in the third spot. Race 11 - The King’s Bishop What a race! The fur should fly early. Insuring fast early fractions causing some weary legs in the lane of this contentious sprint. Having said this, I am going for the closer, Not For Silver. 15-1 on the morning line, but this horse should love rallying at 7 furlongs off a fast pace. With the likes of Big Drama, Munnings, Capt. Candyman Can, and Vineyard Haven, this is as classy a race as you will see for 3-year-old sprinters, enjoy. The play - Not For Silver to win. Race 12 - The Travers Is he great or is he just good? That is the question with Quality Road. We should find out today. I will not be betting him for three reasons. He will be overbet, possibly closing in on even money. He may be a little short, coming off only a 6 ½ furlong sprint and I expect him to be involved in a contested early pace. Because of that pace I like Summer Bird, who we know loves the distance and should have a perfect trip. I had decided to throw out Kensei, but he is just a little more scary on a sloppy track. Any of the others have done enough to not be a major surprise in this solid field of seven. The play - Summer Bird to win.