Bold, if not Controversial, Predictions

Prediction #1 – The three-year-old male division remains undecided until the Eclipse Awards announcement in January. In the end, the winner of the race with the strongest field of the season, takes home the hardware. The race is the August 28 Travers, and the winner is Exhi. Prediction #2 – Rachel Alexandra will hustle out on the track and into the starting gate at the last second, before easily winning Saratoga‘s Ruffian Stakes. When her connections were asked why she almost missed the race, they explained that Jess Jackson had not decided where she would run until three minutes before post time. ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

Fame and Vermeer

One day before this year's Derby, Fame And Glory, last year's Epsom Derby favorite and runner-up to superstar Sea the Stars, won his third straight this season with a strong win in today's Coronation Cup.  Returning to the top form that he seemed to lose at the end of last year, the Aidan O'Brien runner has now established himself as the top older male in Europe. The four-year-old son of Montjeu was sent off as a heavy favorite, despite the presence of top older horses Youmzain, Calvaryman, and the excellent filly, Sariska. Content to let stablemate Dixie Music set the early pace, Fame and Glory comfortably stalked and took command early in the straight.  Last year's Oaks winner, Sariska, looked to make it interesting the final quarter mile, but had no answer for the powerful stride of her male counterpart.  Fame and Glory held her at bay to win by 1 1/2 lengths.  What better way to set up this years Derby than seeing the success of the 2009 Derby 2nd place finisher. Tomorrow's renewal of one of the most important races in the world will see 12 sophomore colts going 1 1/2 miles at the famed Epsom Downs.  Chief among the Derby hopefuls will be Aidan O'Brien's trio of horses led by Jan Vermeer.  The Michael Tabor owned son of Montjeu was a most impressive winner of the Group 1 Criterium International last Fall, and his easy debut score this season points him out as the most likely winner of the Epsom Derby.  A win by Jan Vermeer tomorrow would cap a big weekend for trainer O'Brien, jockey Johnny Murtagh, and sire Montjeu.  He appears to be another top class stayer in the O'Brien barn and will be difficult to handle. His most like challengers include the Godolphin entrant Rewilding who is a half brother to star mare, Dar Re Mi and is coming off a sharp win at Goodwood.  Possibly the horse with the most upside is Workforce who has only run two times in his career, but has shown great promise and is bred to get the trip.

There Were Other Races Last Week

The focus last week was clearly on a beautiful young filly who competed in the Woodward Stakes. There were, however, many other important races outside of Saratoga, run with countless Breeders' Cup implications. Sea the Stars is the only other horse with a claim to Horse-of-the-World and with his win on Saturday in the Irish Champion, he made a bold statement. It was a match-up of Derby winners as Sea the Stars took on Irish Derby winner Fame and Glory for the first time since he upset him in the Epsom Derby. The high quality Mastercraftsman, who had given Sea the Stars a bit of a scare in their last race, completed the trifecta of top 3-year-olds. Mastercraftsman and then Fame and Glory got first run ahead of Sea the Stars, but when the superstar son of the great mare Urban Sea got rolling the outcome was quickly decided. Bounding away to defeat his main rival, Fame and Glory by 2 ½ lengths, Sea the Stars has now proven he is the dominant horse in Europe. He has won all five of his starts this year and they have all been Group 1 contests. The Arc will be a big test as it often comes up rather wet in the Fall in Paris, in fact, if it is too wet Sea the Stars may not run. After that, America and the Breeder’s Cup hopefully will be calling. Richard’s Kid won the million dollar Pacific Classic on Sunday, further blurring the handicap division in the U.S. At nearly 25-1, he was one of the rank outsiders going in, but proved to be a stretch running force as he got up to nip the admirable Einstein. The favorites Rail Trip and Colonel John ran 3rd and 5th respectively and neither bolstered nor diminished their BC Classic hopes. What this race means to the Classic, I frankly have no idea. The different synthetic surfaces in California leave me scratching my head and as stated before I believe it to be a travesty to hold the Breeder’s Cup on the Santa Anita surface two straight years. I am not sure outside of Chicago how many people are talking about She Be Wild, but the 2-year-old daughter of Offlee Wild has now run three superior races over the Arlington synthetic surface and in my mind is a real threat to beat her more talked about foes on the East and West coasts come Breeder’s Cup. She has a relaxed stalking style and then effortlessly blows them away coming out of the turn. Do not be fooled by her Arlington-Washington Lassie winning time, as her mile in 1:38 3/5 looks great once compared to the day’s other stakes races, and it was easy. I have been looking for Gone Astray to win something for some time now and Labor Day was the day. Was it ever. Gone Astray turned Philadelphia’s Park’s 30th renewal of the Pennsylvania Derby into little more than a laugher as he pounced on the turn and then just kept on going to an impressive 9 ¼ length score. Left in his wake were only Grade 3 types, but he looks like a horse who is finally putting it all together. Unlucky loser in his previous two races, he was considered for the Travers, but his connections found the easier spot in a million dollar race. I am interested to see if Shug McGaughey bites the bullet and tries Summer Bird and Quality Road next in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.