November 6, 2009

Breeders’ Cup Day 1 Winners

I share my winners with my readers, it is what I do…

The BC Marathon features many horses running a distance they have never run before. Because of this, it becomes a difficult race to handicap. Therefore a small percentage of the bankroll will be placed on the first Breeders’ Cup race. Mastery and maybe one or two of the Euros will be favored and they certainly have a shot to win, but I think it is worth a chance to try and beat them. Cloudy’s Knight is my pick. The 9-year-old is in fine form and fresh and is certainly the most classy of the American entrants. Trained by a true master, Jonathan Sheppard, Cloudy’s Night came flying at the finish and out battled the excellent turf horse, Winchester, in his last and a repeat of that performance could well be enough to win this. I see no reason why Cloudy’s Knight should not take to the Pro-Ride surface, as most turf horses do, and I would love to see the old boy roll home in the stretch. By the way, wouldn’t it be fitting in the only male BC race on Ladies Day, to have female jockey Rosemary Homeister come out on top?

As a betting race, I like the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Smart Seattle is my top pick, but I also like Hatheer. Both should have attractive odds and both are returning to their preferred surface, turf, after a race on a synthetic surface. Smart Seattle liked the firm turf of her impressive maiden score and then was hampered by a slow pace when second to Tapitsfly in her second try on turf. She should have a nice stalking trip and I expect trainer Graham Motion will have her ready for her best in her fourth start. Hatheer is regally bred for the grass and I expect sharp improvement after running 3rd on Keeneland’s main track. Both fillies should relish the one mile distance and listed at 8-1 and 10-1 on the morning line, this could be a race to win some serious money.

The next two races offer the day’s singles. Ventura is a true superstar, and despite facing a tough field headed by Informed Decision, I fully expect her to notch another impressive victory in the Filly & Mare Sprint. Bet against Ventura at your own peril. In the Juvenile Fillies, there are a number of horses with potential to run a good race, unfortunately, they also come with numerous questions attached. That is except for one…Blind Luck. She likes the track, the distance and she has the best form in the race. Sounds simple, keep it simple. The best horse wins this race and that horse is the former claimer, Blind Luck.

In the Filly & Mare Turf, I am confident I know who the best horse in the race is, and that is Pure Clan. Unfortunately, it appears to be a paceless race, which will not make it easy on the stretch running daughter of Pure Prize. I love her class, consistency and ability to handle all turf conditions, but she can be susceptible to a slow pace. Defending champ, Forever Together, also could he hampered if they dawdle early. Midday, the young European who could go off as the favorite, may get the early lead and become the horse to catch in the sprint to the wire. All eight horses in the race have class and a I do expect a cavalry charge to the wire. I am sticking with Pure Clan, but do not be surprised if the entire field hits the wire just a few lengths apart.

To me the Ladies Classic boils down to one question…is Careless Jewel ready to handle the dive into the deep end of the pool? She will be on the lead early, she can handle synthetics and she has been simply marvelous in her romping wins at Woodbine, Delaware, Saratoga, and Philadelphia, but these are tough older mares headed by Godolphin’s Music Note. Is she good enough to win here? I say yes, Careless Jewel goes wire to wire.

I hope these picks help and have a happy Breeders’ Cup Day 1!

4 comments:

Candice said...

Should be an exciting day, wish I could see it first hand. Enjoy!!

LDP said...

Thank you! I thought for a second i was insane or something, since nobody else has Cloudy's Knight in there top bracett, hes my second pick. If CJ runs runs straight she wins, if she gawks and runs the width the track again she will end up thir or worse against this bunch. She is a talent, and if she finally channels her talent into a straight line she will win.

ja.raymond said...

There were some tough choices..and the pp's are different now then when I was in the business. There's "new" symbols and abbreviations that I'm not familiar with. I'll need to ask you about some of them later.

Luvbarbaro said...

Music Note should have won today! Boo- Hoo!!