Derby Morning Line … for the Trainers

1 Todd Pletcher 5-2 (Eskendereya, Super Saver, Rule, Connemara, Interactif, Discreetly Mine & Aikenite) Pletcher’s army is deeper than ever, giving him his best chance yet to win his first Run for the Roses. 2 Bob Baffert 3-1 (Lookin at Lucky, Conveyance & The Program) Last time Baffert’s great Derby streak began he finished 2nd the year previous with Cavonnier. Last year Pioneerofthe Nile was 2nd… 3 Nick Zito 10-1 (Ice Box, Fly Down & Jackson Bend) It’s been 16 years since New York Nick won his second Derby. Is he overdue for a third? 4 Thomas Amoss 15-1 (Ron the Greek & Backtalk) Solid conditioner has two interesting candidates. The Louisiana and Illinois Derbies should tell us more. 5 D. Wayne Lukas 15-1 (Dublin, Northern Giant & Wow Wow Wow) 13 time winner in Triple Crown races and 4 time Derby winner must be respected. Dublin looks like his best chance. 6 Alexis Barba 15-1 (Alphie’s Bet & Make Music For Me) With two legitimate contenders, she could become the biggest story on the Derby trail. 7 Kenneth McPeek 15-1 (Noble’s Promise) Tejano Run was his best hope with a 2nd in 1995. Now 15 years later, he will try to stretch out the talent of his game colt, Noble’s Promise. 8 Jeremy Noseda 15-1 (Awesome Act) English trainer who brought us Wilko is back looking for America’s biggest prize, and in Awesome Act, he may have the colt to get it done. 9 Michael Machowsky 20-1 (Caracortado & Nextdoorneighbor) Nextdoorneighbor disappointed in last, so hopes may rest solely on the Cal bred gelding, Caracortado. 10 Thomas Albertrani 20-1 (Odysseus) Won the Preakness and Travers with Bernardini. This year’s hope is firmly pinned on the lightly raced Odysseus. 11 John Sadler 20-1 (Sidney’s Candy & Dave in Dixie) He has a speed horse and a closer, is either one good enough? Only time will tell. 12 Richard Dutrow 20-1 (Homeboy Kris, D’Funnybone & Radiohead) 2008 winner took a hit with Radiohead’s poor performance and announcement D’Funnybone was Preakness bound, but IEAH may buy him something better. 13 Derek Ryan 30-1 (Schoolyard Dreams) He got great experience last year with Musket Man, this year he is back for more with big dreams. 14 Wesley Ward 30-1 (Pleasant Prince) A win at Royal Ascot last year followed by a Kentucky Derby win this year would be an enviable double. 15 Field 12-1 (Everyone else) There is still plenty of time for a horse and trainer to step up in a big way…see 2009.

Here’s Why I Like Ron the Greek

Yes, I have heard them all…One should never put too much stock in one single race. The field for the LeComte is infinitely lighter than it will be on the first Saturday in May. A horse that comes from so far behind is at the mercy of the pace. How could a horse that runs his first three races at Hoosier Park, Delta Downs, and Remington Park ever make it big? These concerns are certainly not without merit, but every once in a while a horse comes along that beats the odds. I believe Ron the Greek may well be that kind of horse. In yesterday’s LeComte Stakes at the Fair Grounds, Ron the Greek came from the clouds to inhale a solid field of sophomores. The highly regarded Maximus Ruler set down solid fractions and after six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 looked strong on the lead. Meanwhile Ron the Greek was languishing at the back of the pack a full fifteen lengths behind. What happened from there was one of the more impressive stretch runs you will ever see. Still second to last as the horses straightened out for the stretch run, Ron the Greek swung to the outside and unleashed a furious kick that jettisoned him to a rather easy 1 ½ length score. Final time for the one mile and forty yards was a solid 1:40 flat. A closer look at Ron the Greek’s splits reveal what his opponents had to deal with. Ron the Greek ran his first six furlongs in 1:15 1/5, which means he finished the race in :24 4/5, a decent close if we are talking about the final quarter mile. But, of course, we are not. That final :24 4/5 was over a quarter mile plus 40 yards, meaning that Ron the Greek was running the last two furlongs, of this distance race, in just over 22 seconds. Major racehorse time to be sure and the kind of closing kick that strikes fear in the hearts of rival trainers at Louisville. Making the rally even more impressive, take note that the LeComte was not a race where the pace collapsed. The horses that were near the lead early, were, for the most part, still fighting on in the stretch, and there was clearly only one horse dropping down the hammer in the lane. Make that a Jack Hammer, who happens to be the owner of Ron the Greek. Trained by Tom Amoss, this bay colt has a powerful frame that reminds me of successful Triple Crown runners Risen Star, Unbridled, and Victory Gallop. Those three also had made little noise running outside of the major markets at two. Each of them flashed their ability in the Spring and continued to grow into their physiques, on their way to big successes as the races became longer. Ron the Greek has the physicality to become that type of horse, as he continues to mature and gets to run at longer distances. He has all the look of a horse who should appreciate the increase in distance as the level of competition gets tougher. When looking for a Derby horse, it is an added benefit to see a horse who has the size and strength to handle the rigors of the Triple Crown series. I remember thinking the exact same thing of Risen Star, the first time I saw him 22 years ago.  Coincidentally, Ron the Greek's next race should be in the Risen Star Stakes. As far as the tracks that he has run at so far, it only makes him all the more appealing. Running at those small tracks can make it even tougher to consistently explode down the stretch, and that is exactly what he has done in each of his four races. This without the benefit of sizzling early fractions. Imagine what his kick might be if they run in 1:09 or 1:10 early? Yesterday was no aberration, it was just the first time that he got a chance to show off in front of a bigger audience on a more grandiose stage. It will only get bigger from here, but wouldn’t it be nice to see a horse who came from small tracks in Indiana, Louisiana, and Oklahoma become a winner of the Derby, Preakness, or Belmont? I know I will be watching for the big bay closing like a freight train.