Oh No! Derek Simon Beat Me

I tend to concentrate on the sport of thoroughbred horse racing, dealing with what’s going on, what’s coming up, and in general celebrating the stars of our sport. My esteemed colleague, Derek Simon, on the other hand, looks at the sport from a different point of view. An innovative and expert handicapper, Derek concentrates on the gambling aspect of the sport. Vive la difference! Because of this, we rarely write about handicapping the same races, but it happened this past Saturday when we both decided to concentrate on the Pennsylvania and Super Derbies for our Youbet.com columns. Derek is a heckuva nice guy, and I certainly never wish him anything but the best. On Saturday, however, my competitive juices began to flow. I wanted to win this impromptu handicapping challenge. Here is how the races unfolded … ***The remainder of today's column can be found on Youbet.com*** Click Here

Morning Line Mistakes

Every horse player takes a look at the morning line odds as one of the first steps in breaking down a race. A good morning line can be a useful tool by offering a general guideline as to how each respective horse will be bet by the general public, but there in lies the rub. It is, or should be, nothing else. A morning line should not represent the odds maker’s personal feelings of what will happen in the race, nor should it be a calculation of the individual’s estimation of what odds a horse deserves to be. When an odds maker utilizes one of these rationales for setting the morning line, it does an injustice to the betting public. Plain and simple the best morning lines are the ones that closest mirror the odds of the horses when betting closes. Major differences in morning line odds and final odds are problematic for horseplayers, especially for those who bet early. If your betting is influenced by the odds, and it certainly should be to a point, morning line odds that are not close to the final odds create misconceptions and confuse wagering strategies. Are all morning line odds going to be right on? Of course not, there will always be cases where horses are bet either more or less than anticipated by the best of oddsmakers. If the morning line made sense, this can in turn offer overlays or underlays that can be taken advantage of by savvy horse players. A good morning line helps the handicapper to discover the horse that will be an overlay (higher odds than you think the horse should be) and therefore a great horse to bet, or conversely the underlay (lower odds than you believe the horse should be) that you should avoid betting. Well calculated morning line odds can make the job of handicapping easier for the average bettor. For the opposite reason, a bad morning line creates confusion that can even change the way people bet, and for the wrong reasons. As I said before, morning line odds are not an exact science, and I do not take much exception when, for instance, a maiden race (lesser proven horses) has a drastically different set of final odds to the morning line. I have less patience for a morning line on a high profile stakes race that is not well thought out. Case in point, tomorrow’s Grade 3 Rampart Stakes at Gulfstream Park. In the race, Venezuelan superstar Bambera makes her first run in the United States. The morning line, as laid out by the Gulfstream Park odds maker, has Bambera listed as the 8-1 fifth choice. Is this realistic? No, it will not be close to the final odds. I list Bambera as the 5-2 favorite on my personal morning line. I make no distinction as to whether she is the horse to beat, or what odds I believe she deserves, but rather I am predicting what she will go off at when betting closes. That is what the morning line is supposed to be. I feel sorry for all those bettors who are licking their lips in anticipation because of Gulfstream’s morning line. It is simply a bad morning line. Bambera will not be 8-1, not even close.