If You Could Pick One Horse …

If you could pick one horse as the most likely to win on Breeders’ Cup weekend, who would it be? The obvious choices that come to mind may be Goldikova or Zenyatta, and seeing how each great mare has won in two consecutive Breeders’ Cups, it would be hard to argue with either. They do have obstacles however, in the form of the two deepest fields of the weekend. The defending Classic winner, Zenyatta, will be facing the best males in the world, and this year she will have to ship in to face them on their surface. Her greatest challenge may come from Blame, who has proven to love the Churchill strip. He is also unbeaten this year and still improving, making him a formidable road block to Zenyatta’s quest for a perfect 20. Meanwhile, Goldikova will no doubt be heavily favored to achieve an unprecedented third consecutive BC Mile victory. Coming off a loss in her latest, Goldikova is an international superstar, but things could be much tougher this time around. Top to bottom the Mile looks like the deepest field, with tigers like, Gio Ponti, Makfi, Court Vision, Sidney’s Candy, and Paco Boy, just to name a few, ready to challenge her supremacy. Last year’s Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra is the likely favorite for the Ladies’ Classic, but sophomore Blind Luck is in the midst of a sparkling season, and should give the 2010 version of Rachel a true test. Paddy O’Prado has become the now horse on American turf, but let’s face it, 12 furlongs on the grass is clearly the Europeans race to lose, whomever their top candidate may be. Discreetly Mine has been the sprinter I have been on all Summer, but the sprint is almost always a race that proves to be a wide open slugfest, rather than a spot for an easily selected winner. Possibly Boys at Tosconova in the Juvenile, or Tell a Kelly in the Juvenile Fillies, have already impressed enough where you think they will roll to victory in the Breeders’ Cup. Maybe, as these are races where the favorites are usually factors, but I would say it is too early to count on such inexperienced youngsters as singles a month and a half out. So where does that leave us? Are there any sure things this year? No sure things, and frankly that is one of the many reasons why I love this game, but there is one horse that stands out in her respective field. A filly who won at the Breeders’ Cup last year, and has improved with age to become a much better horse this year.  Her name is Midday, and I consider her the horse to beat in the BC Filly & Mare Turf by a long way.  Eleven furlongs is a perfect trip for her and Midday is currently on a group 1 roll in Europe. The Breeders’ Cup has been the race her connections have pointed her for since the beginning of her campaign. Unfortunately, some of her toughest competition like Dar Re Mi, Sariska, and the ill-fated Tuscan Evening, will not be at Churchill Downs, making her an even greater threat.  That’s my opinion for the most likely winner at least, I want to know what you think. Who is the one horse you think is most likely to win at the Breeders’ Cup?

Celebrating the 4th at Arlington Park

If you‘ve never been to Arlington Park in suburban Chicago, I urge you to make the trip. The track, facility, and the grounds are unmatched in the United States for pristine beauty. Arlington Park, which was rebuilt after the fire of 1985, is simply a showplace for the Thoroughbred. I had a wonderful time there today, and in the process saw a champion mare win for the first time in 2010. Seeing a champion in person is something that never grows old for me, and as I watched the other big races from around the country, it occurred to me that the grey mare might not be the only champion female winning today. Of course the champion I saw in person was Informed Decision, winning the Chicago Handicap. It is a race that she also won last year on her way to the Eclipse Award as the nation’s best female sprinter. Today’s race was tougher than expected as Informed Decision had to outgame the upstart, longshot speedster, Rinterval, to the wire. At the finish, she was a head better than her rival, who was in receipt of seven pounds, as the two mares pulled clear of the rest of the field. After being upset in her first two starts of the year, and being tested by an unknown today, it appears that the champ may not be quite the force that she was in 2009. Her three races this year, while not as impressive as last year for sure, have been solid, and a little improvement may get her to a level contending for another championship. I would not put anything past this beautiful grey mare who has now won 12 times in 17 lifetime races. If Informed Decision is unseated as Eclipse winning sprinting female, it may be a three-year-old New York bred who is able to turn the trick. Fanny Freud is no run of the mill state bred. Take a look at her record, and you get an idea just how good this filly is. The daughter of Freud has now won 8 times with 2 seconds in 10 tries sprinting. Today she easily handled her competition in snaring her first grade 1 victory. Sent off as a heavy 7-10 choice despite the presence of a recent grade 1 winner in Champagne d‘Oro and a sharp stakes winner in Bonnie Blue Flag, Fanny Freud proved much the best in the Prioress. The winning margin ended up only being 1 ¾ lengths, but it seemed far easier than that, as Fanny made a quick and decisive move as the horses straightened out, that settled things early in the lane. From there she coasted home and will now head to Saratoga as clearly the horse to beat in the Spa’s prestigious Test Stakes. Leaving the female sprinters for just a moment, Maram may have been the horse that most impressed me today. It was not a major stakes that she won, and she only ended up winning the Miss Liberty by a head, but I thought her performance was scintillating. Stuck on the outside, and behind a slow early pace, Maram appeared to be in deep trouble as late as the eighth pole. Still in the 7th position at the stretch call, the four-year-old daughter of Sahm suddenly turned on the afterburners. Gaining on the sharp stakes winning turf filly, Strike the Bell, with every stride, Maram got up in the last few strides to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Gaining all that ground on good fillies, who were sprinting home, speaks volumes of her ability. It was the fifth win in only eight starts for the dark bay filly who has run exclusively on the grass. Always a classy sort, in 2008, she won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in only her third lifetime start. Last year she was thrown to the wolves by running in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf off of only two preps. She was not up to the challenge that day, but was still only beaten 3 ½ lengths. Back and healthy this year, I believe the sky is the limit for her now at four, and I see another run and win in the BC as a real possibility. Photo Courtesy of Four Footed Fotos