Welcome to Zipse at the Track's Two Dozen Days of Derby. Each and every day for the next twenty four, you will find Derby, Derby, and more Derby here on ZATT. So please, if you want to dicuss politics or religion, you are in the wrong place. I have Kentucky Derby Fever, and I hope you do too. So when you visit these pages, be prepared for nothing but Talking Derby. Today, we will discuss the merits of recent Derby favoritism. The results may surprise you.
If Eskendereya enters the 2010 Kentucky Derby starting gate, he will undoubtedly be the top choice by bettors. He assured this with his recent romp in the Wood Memorial. An enviable position, to be the Kentucky Derby favorite, right? Maybe, but maybe not. Let’s take a look at the performance of the favorites in the last 30 years:
Year Favorite Odds Finish
2009 Friesan Fire 3.80-1 18th
2008 Big Brown 2.40-1 1st
2007 Street Sense 4.90-1 1st
2006 Sweetnorthernsaint 5.50-1 7th
2005 Bellamy Road 2.60-1 7th
2004 Smarty Jones 4.10-1 1st
2003 Empire Maker 2.50-1 2nd
2002 Harlan's Holiday 6.00-1 7th
2001 Point Given 1.80-1 5th
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 2.30-1 1st
1999 General Challenge (entry) 4.80-1 11th
1998 Indian Charlie 2.70-1 3rd
1997 Captain Bodgit 3.10-1 2nd
1996 Unbridled's Song 3.50-1 5th
1995 Timber Country (entry) 3.40-1 3rd
1994 Holy Bull 2.20-1 12th
1993 Prairie Bayou 4.40-1 2nd
1992 Arazi .90-1 8th
1991 Hansel 2.50-1 10th
1990 Mister Frisky 1.90-1 8th
1989 Easy Goer (entry) .80-1 2nd
1988 Private Terms 3.40-1 9th
1987 Demons Begone 2.20-1 DNF
1986 Snow Chief 2.10-1 11th
1985 Chief's Crown 1.20-1 3rd
1984 Althea (entry) 2.80-1 19th
1983 Marfa (entry) 2.40-1 5th
1982 Air Forbes Won 2.70-1 7th
1981 Proud Appeal (entry) 2.30-1 18th
1980 Rockhill Native 2.10-1 5th
A closer look at these results reveal that a total of four favorites have won the Kentucky Derby in the past three decades, a winning percentage of only 13.3%.
The average finish for the favorite in this time period is a very surprising 7th place. As you can tell, being the favorite means very little when the race begins.
Looking at the winners over these thirty years, we see 13 horses who had double digit odds, and six of them had odds of over 20-1.
What does this all mean for this year's favorite, Eskendereya? Nothing, he will not be aware of his own odds. But if you think that it is a foregone conclusion that we will see Eskendereya in the winner's circle, history has taught us that you may be in for a rude awakening.
always something ppl shud be aware of. 20 horses round churchill downs, nothing can be taken for granted. i quite like Eskendereya tho but a derby bet on him wud be full of frailties.
ReplyDeleteThe only time I bet the favorite is in an exotic bet - exacta or trifecta box. (Except for Smarty Jones - wait! he wasn't the favorite)
ReplyDeleteEskendereya deserves to be the favorite- but you never know, in a 20 horse stampede...anything can happen.
I'm a 'bad bettor' - I tend to spread my $ - I've never bet on only ONE horse in the Kentucky Derby.
No horse is ever a lock especially not this year. From the way I see it you have the top tier group, which is made of maybe five horses at the most. Then you have the second group, which is not far off from the top group. The second group has a lot of talent, and the ability to step up if anything should go wrong with the faves. Personally, I believe there are even some third stringers this year that are pretty capable of pulling an upset. Though, I cannot find fault with anyone who wishes to back a horse who is perfect over dirt and as a three year old.
ReplyDeleteYou cheat. 30 years for a data base? Northern Dancer was foaled in 1961 and appears in male and female side of Eskendereya so you have to go back 50 years. In doing that winning favorites rise to 28%(includes Forward Pass)and makes a bet on Eskendereya all the more plausible. Right?
ReplyDeleteRG
Good points one and all! You are correct, R.G. Had I used a different sample number of years, the results would have been different, however; the farther you go back in history the less you find in common to what you see in the current Derby. In other words, very large fields and less preps before Louisville. In that way, I feel good about the sample number I chose to utilize.
ReplyDelete