Kentucky Derby 2011

Zipse’s Kentucky Derby Daily – Day 39 Visit the 2011 Kentucky Derby page for all the latest info on contenders, rankings, Derby trail, future odds and more, and remember to follow ZATT daily on Horse Racing Nation. It's less than six weeks away, and things are really starting to shake itself out. Sunday features an excellent prep from Gulfstream Park, with four of the top eight clashing in the Florida Derby.  Looking ahead to the big day, I have ranked the 16 most likely to wear the roses. Here they are... Down and Derby - The Sweet 16 1. Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie-Playa Maya, by Arch) Todd Pletcher – His lack of tests before the Derby are a little troublesome, but the fact remains that he was an absolute monster at two, and I have seen nothing to say that he will not continue his winning ways at three. The Wood Memorial should give us a little more to go on before the Triple Crown, but maybe only a little. Look for an easy win to send him to Louisville as the clear Derby choice. I believe he is the only horse I have ever seen who seems to be trained for the Triple Crown 2. Premier Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus-Squall Linda, by Summer Squall) I warned my readers to watch out for this one when he gets to stretch out. Bang-Zoom! He got two-turns in the San Felipe, and he opened many eyes. I’m not sure why people still doubt him so much, yes I know the speed collapsed that day, but the fact remains that he positively destroyed a decent field. He ran the best race of any three-year-old so far, and actually reminds me of an old favorite of mine named Sunday Silence to this stage. 3. Dialed In (Mineshaft-Miss Doolittle, by Storm Cat) Nick Zito – This one needs a solid pace to soften up the speed. In the Florida Derby, he may get that. In the Kentucky Derby, he will get that. His last race was but a mere prep, and even though Saturday is a huge race in its own right, it is only another stepping stone to have him ready for his best on May 7. Win, lose, or draw in a few days, I consider him the biggest threat coming from Gulfstream to Churchill Downs. 4. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno-Ponche de Leona, by Ponche) Katherine Ritvo – The big kid is still learning. Disappointment of running 3rd in the Louisiana Derby was tempered by the fact that he lost a shoe early in the race, hampering his chances. His running still looked immature in a race that he only lost by ¾ of a length. The competition will get tougher in Louisville, but don’t be surprised to see six weeks do him a world of good. 5. To Honor and Serve (Bernardini-Pilfer, by Deputy Minister) Bill Mott- His performance in the Fountain of Youth left much to be desired, and I was a little surprised to see him stay at Gulfstream afterwards. Having said that, I believe he has as much upside as almost anyone on this list, and it would be no surprise to see him turn things completely around in the Florida Derby, with the benefit of the last race and a string of solid works. 6. The Factor (War Front-Greyciousness, by Miswaki) Bob Baffert– Speed kills. Anyone that has raced against him the last three times will tell you that. But can he win the Derby? The answer is yes he can, but I do not like his chances. With the recent trend to have the Derby starting gate filled to the brim, it becomes tougher and tougher for a frontrunner to grab an uncontested lead, and in the Derby that is almost impossible to overcome. 7. Soldat (War Front-Le Relais, by Coronado's Quest) Kiaran McLaughlin – OK, I admit it … these War Front’s can flat out run. The Florida Derby will be tougher than the Fountain of Youth was, it just has to be. If Flashpoint is entered, I expect things to get too tough for this frontrunner to handle. He may be the favorite on Saturday, but I am not yet sold on dat. If he does win, I will move him on up. 8. Stay Thirsty (Bernardini-Marozia, by Storm Bird) Todd Pletcher – I liked this one since his initial race where he ran 2nd in a maiden at Belmont, but he has yet to get out of the rather large shadow cast by his more accomplished barn mate. He will get a chance to do just that against a solid Florida Derby group. An impressive win there by the Gotham winner may leave Repole with the two favorites for the roses. 9. Anthony's Cross (Indian Charlie-Screening, by Unbridled) Eoin Harty – Looms as the biggest threat to PrePeg in the Santa Anita Derby. He has gotten a long rest since his hard fought victory in the Lewis, but he already had a solid foundation before that. I love the way that Indian Charlie’s second son is working at Hollywood for his return to the races. I was happy to get a few sawbucks down on him at 50-1 for the Derby. 10. Santiva (Giant's Causeway-Slide, by Smarten) Eddie Kenneally – Has done little wrong, as he finished 2010 with a nice stakes win at Churchill, and began this year with a solid 2nd to Mucho Macho Man. The setback that cost him a spot in the Louisiana Derby is no positive, so he probably will need to get a whole lot out of the synthetic prep in the Blue Grass. I wonder if that will be enough to have him at his best for his return to the Twin Spires. 11. Jaycito (Victory Gallop-Night Edition, by Ascot Knight) Bob Baffert – Still not sure what to make of this one. He flashes major talent, but then does just enough wrong to lose some faith. He’ll make the cross country trek to tangle with the big horse in the Wood. I honestly can’t see him scaring Mo in there, but if he can finish full of run it would at the very least send him on to Louisville on a positive note. 12. Nehro (Mineshaft-The Administrator, by Afleet) After two downright dull performances to start his career, this son of Mineshaft has turned it around in a big way. The way back early to first easily move in the maiden at Oaklawn was the tipoff, and then his strong rally in the Louisiana Derby proved it … this Asmussen trained colt is getting good at the right time. If he continues the improvement he has in his last two, he could prove a major threat in the Classics. 13. Sway Away (Afleet Alex-Seattle Shimmer, by Seattle Slew) Jeff Bonde – The Rebel was a big letdown for a colt I was pretty high on. The race set up for The Factor not him, and banging into the gate and losing a tooth did not help the effort. With those excuses, I am ready to throw out the Rebel, and look for him to come out running next time in the Arkansas Derby. 14. Elite Alex (Afleet Alex-Catch the Moment, by Unbridled) I expected more out of him in the Louisiana Derby, but wide and way back throughout is no way to prove your talent. I still think this one is talented, and with a ton of speed going 1 ¼ miles on the First Saturday in May, he may be in line to put it all together and pick up a whole lot of the pieces down the Derby lane. 15. Mr. Commons (Artie Schiller-Joustabout, by Apalachee) Impressive maiden winner on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita, came back to win an allowance in his first try on dirt. The John Shirreffs trained colt has always impressed in the mornings, but of late has absolutely dazzled onlookers. He may be sitting on a breakout performance just in time for the Santa Anita Derby. 16. Brethren (Distorted Humor-Supercharger, by A.P. Indy) Todd Pletcher - Following in the footsteps of his big brother, he will contest the Arkansas Derby after finishing 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby. I did not like the ride that day, but he will still need to step things up big time after the lackluster performance. It will be interesting to see how hard he goes after The Factor early at Oaklawn.

2011 Kentucky Derby

Zipse’s Kentucky Derby Daily - Day 72 Visit the 2011 Kentucky Derby page for all the latest info on contenders, rankings, Derby trail, future odds and more, and remember to follow ZATT daily on Horse Racing Nation. It's only ten weeks away, and new contenders are rising fast, while the pretenders are falling by the wayside. Saturday features an excellent prep from Gulfstream Park, as To Honor and Serve makes his sophomore debut in the grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Next week we'll head to the Big Apple for the Gotham Stakes. Remember, this time of year allows little room for missteps as connections jockey their horses for position in the Derby starting gate. Looking ahead to the big day, I have ranked my most likely to wear the roses. Here they are... The Sweet 16 1. Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie-Playa Maya, by Arch) Todd Pletcher - Not crazy about the decision to have the first of only two preps at one-turn, but in the end I will trust Pletcher to do what’s best with the best three-year-old in the nation. 2. To Honor and Serve (Bernardini-Pilfer, by Deputy Minister) Bill Mott- Flattered by Mucho Macho Man‘s win in the Risen Star. The Fountain of Youth will be a fair test to see where he is in 2011, and to see his ratability. 3. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno-Ponche de Leona, by Ponche) Katherine Ritvo - Big lanky colt seems to be on the trail of putting things together. He will need to keep improving to win the Derby, but I can see that improvement continuing to come. 4. Dialed In (Mineshaft-Miss Doolittle, by Storm Cat) Nick Zito - Two races down and they were both full of promise. I need to see what his come from behind style will look like around two-turns to consider him one of the Derby favorites. 5. Sway Away (Afleet Alex-Seatlle Shimmer, by Seattle Slew) Jeff Bonde - His broodmare sire won the Triple Crown. His sire almost won it. Can’t wait to see this impressive colt run a route of ground. 6. Brethren (Distorted Humor-Supercharger, by A.P. Indy) Todd Pletcher - Following in the footsteps of his big brother, he will contest the Tampa Bay Derby next. He has done nothing to dissuade confidence in him. 7. Alternation (Distorted Humor-Alternate, by Seattle Slew) Donnie Von Hemel - My top dark horse right now. Breeding is great, and I love the way he looks down the stretch of his races. Acid test should come in the Rebel. 8. Santiva (Giant's Causeway-Slide, by Smarten) Eddie Kenneally - Finished 2010 with a nice stakes win at Churchill, and began this year with a solid 2nd to Mucho Macho Man. Improvement next time out will put him right in the argument as a major threat. 9. Premier Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus-Squall Linda, by Summer Squall) Myung Cho- A little out on the limb on this one, but I think the San Vicente will do him a world of good. I have always thought that PrePeg will appreciate longer distances. 10. Jaycito (Victory Gallop-Night Edition, by Ascot Knight) Bob Baffert - A bit of a mystery horses for several reasons, but Baffert thinks he is beginning to come around. Bred to do well on the First Saturday in May. 11. Stay Thirsty (Bernardini-Marozia, by Storm Bird) Todd Pletcher - Been knocking heads with stablemate Mo in the mornings, and looking good doing it. Debut in the Gotham should tell us a lot about his ability to move forward this year. 12. Anthony's Cross (Indian Charlie-Screening, by Unbridled) Eoin Harty - This one could continue to surprise people. Likes Churchill Downs and really seems to be coming to hand for a very capable horseman. 13. Soldat (War Front-Le Relais, by Coronado's Quest) Kiaran McLaughlin - Turf, check. Slop, check. What can he do on a dry dirt surface. We should have an answer when he tangles with the #2 on Saturday. 14. Rogue Romance (Smarty Jones-Lovington, by Afleet) Ken McPeek - Not sold on him as a true ten furlong horse, but his races are just good enough to include on this list. I will need to see improvement in the Louisiana Derby though. 15. Runflatout (Flatter-Slammin' Lil, by Grand Slam) John Sadler - This West Pointer can flat out run, or so his only race to date would seem to say. Looking forward to see what he can do against good horses in the San Felipe. 16. Sweet Ducky (Pulpit-Storm's Darling, by Storm Boot) Kelly Breen - Part of the Holy Bull group that could end up being a key race. I liked the way he looked last Fall at Monmouth, so I am willing to hold on for another race. [How would your Top 10 look right now?] Off the Trail -Boys at Tosconova -Tapizar -Clubhouse Ride [Disagree with my rankings? Join the HRN Community and rank your favorites on our 2011 Kentucky Derby Contenders]

ZATT Has Moved to Horse Racing Nation

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Down and Derby - The Holiday Edition

1. Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) Todd Pletcher - The unquestioned king of the juveniles has people triple crown dreaming. 2. To Honor and Serve (Bernardini) Bill Mott- The best at Aqueduct. How will that translate to Louisville? 3. Boys at Tosconova (Officer) Rick Dutrow - Classy and talented, but can the son of Officer go a distance? 4. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) Katherine Ritvo - Been chasing Mott’s colt; distance should be no problem. 5. Premier Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus) Myung Cho- Looking good sprinting and bred to handle a route of ground. 6. Cool Blue Red Hot (Harlan’s Holiday) Angel Penna Jr. - Only faced maidens so far, but plenty of upside. 7. Dialed In (Mineshaft) Nick Zito - One race, and it was a doozy. Has the look of a Derby type of horse. 8. Santiva (Bernardini) Eddie Kenneally - Like the way he battled in between horses over the Churchill strip. 9. Comma to the Top (Bwana Charlie) Peter Miller - Electrifying at Hollywood, but I have my 10 furlong doubts. 10. Jaycito (Victory Gallop) Bob Baffert - BC Juvenile bolt makes this well bred colt a bit of an enigma. 11. Stay Thirsty (Bernardini) Todd Pletcher - Love the name, love the looks, but he needs to improve to run with Mo. 12. Tapizar (Tapit) Steve Asmussen - Ran away from his competition at Churchill like a real runner. 13. Brethren (Distorted Humor) Todd Pletcher - Super Saver’s little bro has impressed in his first two starts. 14. Sway Away (Afleet Alex) Jeff Bonde - Been away from the races for some time, but I liked what I saw at Del Mar. 15. Rogue Romance (Smarty Jones) Ken McPeek - Switch back to dirt earned him a distant 3rd in the BC. 16. J P’s Gusto (Successful Appeal) David Hofmans - Solid in California, what happened in the Juvenile? 17. Astrology (A. P. Indy) Steve Asmussen - Kentucky Jockey Club favorite ran well, but was outgamed to the wire. 18. Clubhouse Ride (Candy Ride) Craig Lewis- Dropped way back at Hollywood, but was full of run down the lane. 19. Mountain Town (Cape Town) Rick Dutrow - No match in the Remsen, maybe more distance will get him in the picture. 20. Gourmet Dinner (Trippi) Steve Standridge - Still not a big believer in this game colt at 10 furlongs, but he already has the earnings. 21. Major Gain (More Than Ready) Wayne Catalano - Dirt race was promising as he battled from the rail. 22. Archarcharch (Arch) Jinks Fires - Went from maiden to stakes winner yesterday. I like his distance potential. 23. Coil (Point Given) Tom Proctor - Recent maiden winner is by Point Given out of a Theatrical mare = distance. 24. Sherriff Cogburn (Vindication) Don Von Hemel - Eager to see the return of this Midwestern flash. 25. Smash (Smart Strike) Bob Baffert - The maiden win was impressive, but no racing since July. Here is To Honor and Serve handling Mucho Macho Man and Mountain Town in the Remsen.

Comma to the Top Scores in Tedious CashCall Futurity

In one of longest awaited races I have ever seen, Comma to the Top, favored at 5-2, stalked early pacesetter High Level Jeff in second position, through moderate early fractions, before accelerating on the far turn to take command of the grade one affair. Under Corey Nakatani, the son of Bwana Charlie drew clear to an insurmountable lead early in the lane, and at the wire was nearly two lengths in front over a hard charging J P's Gusto, with longshot Clubhouse Ride getting up late for third. It was the sixth victory in ten starts for the Florida bred gelding. Final time for the 1 1/16 miles on the Cushion Track was 31:44.72.  Did Hollywood Park really let that horse delay one of their biggest races of the year a full 30 minutes in a driving rainstorm???

ZATT’s First Annual Fan of the Year - Tim Reynolds

Tim Reynolds is by no means your average fan of horse racing, and today I honor his great love for the sport by naming him the 2010 Fan of the Year. Whether it be going to the races at Churchill Downs, or visiting retired runners at horse farms, or the room in his home dedicated to racing’s stars, Tim lives and breathes the greatest sport in the world. It all started for Tim 21 years ago when he picked out a fiery, near black stallion in the post parade of the 1989 Kentucky Derby. As a native to Louisville, he had watched several Derbies before, but seeing Sunday Silence that afternoon ignited a fire for the sport that continues to burn today. At the time, twelve-year-old Tim had no idea that he was in store for one of the best Triple Crown series in history, as his new favorite and Easy Goer would battle it out in each race. He still will watch their epic stretch dual in the Preakness as a source of inspiration. There were countless wonderful people that I considered for the award this year, but it was Tim who I felt to be the most deserving. Inspiration is one of the main reasons in his favor. He recognizes the great courage and heart our racing heroes display. Horses like Seattle Slew, Sunday Silence, and Tiznow, who overcame adversity to become champions, mean more to him than most people. While Tim has suffered great personal tragedy over the past few years, like those racing champions that he loves, he battles on with both style and grace. Not that long ago, Tim’s fondness for thoroughbred horse racing was a lonely endeavor. Family and friends did not have the passion for the game like him. Facebook changed all that. Tim dove right in and quickly made horse racing friends by the droves. It is on Facebook that Tim earned my recognition of not only a great guy, but also an amazing source of information, knowledge, and entertainment of both past and present goings on in the sport. Don’t get me wrong, he is more than only horses, but if you are a fan of racing, do yourself a favor and become a Facebook friend of Tim (Tiznow) Reynolds. If you are lucky your friendship will lead to meeting him at the races. He is one of the more pleasurable people to join in watching the races. Relatively new to handicapping, Tim has already become an accomplished handicapper. I have first hand knowledge of Tim’s ability to pick the ponies, as he gave me the straight trifecta in a full-field, major stakes race. It was one of the first races we ever discussed together, and I have since seen numerous occasions where his picks are better than most. Good handicapping aside, Tim is a fan first and foremost. In fact, he rarely bets more in a day than a nice dinner would cost. He is there not to make money, but rather to get a glimpse of history or the next potential star in the making. He had that opportunity in May of 2008 when he noticed a striking filly on the walkover that had a very distinguishable blaze and a beautiful color. Her name was Rachel Alexandra, and he was fortunate enough to see her first race in person. She became one of Tim’s all-time favorites. I first met Tim at this year’s Stephen Foster. We shared an old love for Sunday Silence, and also a new love for Rachel Alexandra, who happened to romp that day. Tim was like an old friend the first time I spent time with him. He is a regular guy, but with a ton of class. He is smart, but not pretentious. He is fun to be around. I feel confident in saying that everyone is better off just by knowing Tim Reynolds. I know I am. There will be many more Fans of the Year as time passes, but there will never be another innaugural winner. I can’t think of a more good natured, passionate, all-around great guy to hold that distinction. Tim Reynolds of Sunday Silence Drive (that‘s really the street he lives on), I salute you, and the world of horse racing salutes you. Congratulations, you are the Fan of the Year.