With several rich Derby preps run yesterday, surely there was a key race pointing out one of the big contenders to wear the roses in five weeks. Was it the $2 million UAE Derby? No, the only good Northern Hemisphere three-year-old in the field, Mendip, could not handle his slightly older competition down the lane. No Derby winner there. Was it in the big race I attended, Turfway Park’s Lane’s End Stakes? No, while the winner Dean’s Kitten looked good running away from his competition, I believe he will find things much tougher Derby day both with competition and a traditional dirt surface. Then it must have come from the Louisiana Derby with its 13 horse field of Derby contenders. Sorry, While the Louisiana Derby had a bunch of good horses in the field, there were zero standouts nor Kentucky Derby winners in that field, including winner Mission Impazible. What then was yesterday’s key race? None other than the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. Favored in the race was Positive Split, who had been very competitive against Ice Box and Pleasant Prince in his last two races. It was the winner Exhi, that told me the most about the Derby, however. Is Exhi a Derby horse? Absolutely not, but he is a $100,000 stakes winner after yesterday. In Exhi’s previous race he was absolutely obliterated by Odysseus. Running second that day, Exhi was left in the wake of Odysseus to the tune of a 15 length thrashing. Now that I know Exhi is of stakes quality, it makes me all the more impressed with Odysseus. By the way, the horse Odysseus beat in his maiden win in January, Forward Harch, also came back to win nicely yesterday. With this said, let’s see how it effects my latest Down and Derby…
The Top 20
1 Odysseus (Malibu Moon - Persimmon Hill by Conquistador Cielo)
The Tampa Bay Derby winner is developing fast. Now that we know horses he has beaten are coming back and running well, it is time for me to take the plunge. Odysseus is my top Kentucky Derby selection.
2 Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike - Private Feeling by Belong to Me)
He is the champ, and I see no reason to expect that he will not run well in five weeks. Back home in Southern California, look for him to be the horse to beat in the Santa Anita Derby and then be the Kentucky Derby favorite.
3 Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway - Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew)
Still waiting for the owner of the single best race run by this crop to reappear. The waiting will be over in six days with the Wood Memorial. He better be ready to fire another big shot, because that field is stacked.
4 Awesome Act (Awesome Again - Houdini‘s Honey by Mr. Prospector)
I still find the English Invader with the dirt breeding to be the most interesting prospect of the bunch, and of course his Gotham win did nothing to dispel that notion. The Wood should tell us a lot.
5 Super Saver (Maria’s Mon - Supercharger by A.P. Indy)
The forgotten horse. Do not forget this one has already run big at Churchill, and his return to the races was a game performance in the Tampa Bay Derby. Look for another solid effort in next week’s Wood Memorial.
6 Caracortado (Cat Dreams - Mons Venus by Maria’s Mon)
I still think he was the best of the San Felipe field despite his third place finish. The true test will happen in the Santa Anita Derby where he will face an even stiffer challenge.
7 Dublin (Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage by Storm Bird)
Is he a ten furlong horse? Lukas seems to think so. The Rebel was a small disappointment, let’s see if this big, strapping son of Afleet Alex can bounce back with a big performance in the Arkansas Derby.
8 Conveyance (Indian Charlie - Emptythetill by Holy Bull)
Beware the undefeated horse. I am not sure if he will be strong down the Churchill Downs stretch, but until beaten, I respect him. Flattered by Mission Implazible’s win, the Baffert winner is in New Mexico today.
9 Ice Box (Pulpit - Spice Island by Tabasco Cat)
I am thinking the Florida Derby will be the opposite of a key race in five weeks time, but this son of Pulpit is improving and clearly is in good hands with Nick Zito.
10 Schoolyard Dreams (Stephen Got Even - Hear This by Prospector‘s Music)
Interested to see what this year’s Musket Man (Both trained by Derek Ryan) can do in the Illinois Derby. I have a feeling it will be another case of flattering my number one horse.
11 Alphie’s Bet (Tribal Rule - Miss Alphie by Candi‘s Gold)
Stormed down the lane in the Sham Stakes like he may be any kind. We shall soon see with this Alexis Barba runner, because a loaded field in the Santa Anita Derby will be next.
12 Noble’s Promise (Cuvee - The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick)
I know, I know, he is a really nice horse. I am not arguing that. What I am arguing is that a horse with this sprint breeding can ever be a major factor in the grueling Kentucky Derby.
13 Sidney’s Candy (Candy Ride- Fair Exchange by Storm Cat)
I am not convinced yet on this impressive winner of the San Felipe. With a tough test coming in the Santa Anita Derby and then a contested pace in the Kentucky Derby, I think it is only a matter of time until his bubble bursts.
14 Interactif (Broken Vow - Broad Pennant by Broad Brush)
I like this horses breeding and there is little to fault with his performances to date. Here are my two issues with him: He looks like he is best on the grass and his recent style of being close to the pace will make things tough.
15 Rule (Roman Ruler - Rockcide by Personal Flag)
A classy horse to be sure, and a horse that I expect to have a very nice career. A horse that runs one-two-three in the Kentucky Derby? I just can’t see it happening.
16 Pleasant Prince (Indy King - Archduchess by Pleasant Tap)
This horse is improving and is bred to run long, so why do I not have him higher on my list? He has run three straight times against Ice Box, and I thought Ice Box was better each time…and I am not gung ho over Ice Box.
17 Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song - La Paz by Hold Your Peace)
I did not think too much of his chances in the Louisiana Derby, shame on me. I do not think too much of his chances in the Kentucky Derby, luckily I do not think he will make me look silly again.
18 Backtalk (Smarty Jones - Apasionata Sonata by Affirmed)
This is one interesting horse. He was an excellent juvenile and his return to the races at Delta Downs was deceptively good. I am eager to see what his blazing work means Illinois Derby Day. Beware the Affirmed broodmares.
19 Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings by Tabasco Cat)
Holding on to a spot in the Top 20 is this classy Zito runner. The Wood Memorial should be a great barometer to see if he can compete against the big boys over a route of ground.
20 Nacho Friend (Friends Lake - You’renotlistening by Kennedy Road)
I like his distance breeding and his potential for improvement. The Sunland Derby run later today should tell us if he is a real candidate to make some noise in Louisville.